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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | N/A | ||
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For January
CPI m/m: -0.2%, forecast -0.1%, pr. 0.6% (Dec), 0.3% (Nov),
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| 5/19 | 6/16 | 7/14 | 8/18 | 9/15 | 10/13 | 11/17 | 12/15 | 1/19 | 2/16 | ||
| Actual | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | |
| Forecast | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | |
| Previous | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | N/A | ||
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For December
CPI m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.3% (Nov), 0.2% (Oct),
UK consumer inflation data came in red hot for the month of December. The annual rate jumped by a full 1%, posting a 2.9% reading compared to November's 1.9%. That beat forecasts, and was the largest change in the annual rate from one month to another since records began in 1997. On the month prices were up 0.6%, double the 0.3% forecast be economists. While higher oil prices accounted for some of the monthly shift, the yearly figure was boosted as at this time last year there was a sales tax cut which lowered retail prices. Therefore the core annual rate also saw a dramatic shift, climbing 2.8% compared to November's 1.9%. Still, since the data surprised economists on the upside, it is an early indication that inflation pressures may accelerate in 2010. While the Bank of England did mention that short-term inflation was likely to jump, today's report will add pressure for the Bank to begin considering steps it needs to tighten policy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | N/A | ||
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For November
CPI m/m: 0.3%, pr. 0.2% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.4% (Aug),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | N/A | ||
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For October
CPI m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.0% (Sep), 0.4% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul),
The UK inflation rate rose at an annual pace of 1.5% in October, the first time in eight months that the annual rate of consumer prices accelerated. In September prices were at a 7-year low of 1.1%. On the month prices were up 0.2%, following a flat reading in September. The Bank of England predicted as much in its last interest rate meeting statement. The Board wrote, "inflation is likely to rise sharply to above the 2% target in the near term, reflecting higher petrol price inflation and the reversal of last year’s reduction in VAT." However, in the medium term"substantial margin of under-utilized resources" will bear down on inflation. The Bank of England just expanded its quantitative easing program and it is too soon for the Monetary Policy Committee to begin thinking about tightening rates in an environment of weak economic growth. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | N/A | ||
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For September
CPI m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.4% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.3% (Jun),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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For August
CPI m/m: 0.4%, pr. 0.0% (Jul), 0.3% (Jun), 0.6% (May), 0.2% (Apr),
The UK inflation rate fell less than expected in August as higher oil prices offset the effects of the recession. Consumer prices were up 1.6% on the year, following a 1.8% annual rise in July. That reading is the weakest inflation has been since January 2005. On the month, prices were up 0.4%. The Bank of England has expanded its asset-purchase plan to 175 billion pounds, with one important goal being the fight to mitigate the threat of deflation. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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For July
CPI m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.3% (Jun), 0.6% (May), 0.2% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
Core CPI y/y: 1.8%, forecast 1.5%, pr. 1.6% (Jun), 1.6% (May),
The UK inflation rate unexpectedly held at an annual pace of 1.8% in July, a signal that prices are holding firm as the economy works its way out of its current recession. The central bank has warned that inflation will miss its target which was interpreted as a sign of weakness and has hurt the Pound recently, but today's data moves against that sentiment. The core annual rate for instance rose to 1.8%, when forecasts called for a decrease to 1.5%. On the month, overall prices were flat, following 5 months of increases. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | N/A | ||
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For June
CPI m/m: 0.3% (June), pr. 0.6% (May), 0.2% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
Core CPI y/y: 1.6% (June), pr. 1.6% (May), 1.5% (Apr), 1.7% (Mar),
Inflation came in at 0.3% with the core reading at 0.2% on the month in June. The annual inflation came in at 1.8%, the lowest rate since September of 2007. This was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the Retail Price Index (RPI), fell a record 1.6% on the year to June. These numbers although expected heightens the concern of deflationary risk. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | N/A | ||
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For May
CPI m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.2% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
Core CPI y/y: 1.6%, forecast 1.5%, pr. 1.5% (Apr), 1.7% (Mar),
UK annual inflation inched down to show a 2.2% gain in May, smaller than forecasts. The weak Pound is keeping prices for imports up, while higher taxes also worked their way into raising consumer prices. The rate of decline in inflation can give the Bank of England something to worry about as it has stayed higher than originally expected. Inflation has stated above the central bank's target of 2% for 20 straight months. On the month, inflation rose 0.6%, which doubled expectations f a 0.3% increase. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | N/A | ||
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For April
CPI m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.4%, pr. 0.2% (Mar), 0.9% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan),
Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.7% (Mar), 1.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan),
The UK inflation rate fell to an annual rate of 2.3% in April, cooling from a 2.9% pace in March. That figure was slightly below forecasts and is the weakest inflation in 15 months. The slowdown in inflation should not come as a surprise as Bank of England Governor Mervyn King predicted as much when the central bank came out with its quarterly inflation report last week. Inflation is expected to reach a pace of 0.5% in the 3rd quarter as a weak economy limits how much stores and companies can raise their prices. Though lower inflation fueled by lower energy puts extra money in the pocket of consumers, lower inflation overall can keep consumers from spending as they await further discounts which pressures the revenues of sellers. The core annual inflation rate slowed to a pace of 1.5%, which was also lower than forecasts. On the month prices grew 0.2%, matching March's level, but just like the two annual rates, the figure came in below expectations. |
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