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Indicator Digest

Consumer Price Index
CPI is one of the most widely used measure of inflation, as it follows the price changes experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. This is usually measured by a following an index of a certain "basket of goods", that is made up of the the items needed by a household. "Core" CPI usually excludes volatile items, such as food and energy, in order to get a better sense of price changes without these prices factored in.

Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index m/m

Most Recent Release

June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.2% 0.9% N/A

For May
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: -1.0%, forecast -0.9%, pr. -0.3% (Apr), -0.4% (Mar), 0.2% (Feb),
0.1% (Jan), 0.7% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug),
3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Next Release Date: July 03rd 2009, 3:15 EST

Table of Past Data

7/319/211/412/21/82/103/64/35/76/5
Actual-0.4%-0.3%0.5%-0.7%-0.5%-0.8%0.2%-0.3%0.9%0.2%
Forecast-0.5%-0.1%0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%0.0%0.6%0.2%
Previous0.2%-0.4%0.1%0.5%-0.7%-0.5%-0.8%0.2%-0.3%0.9%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

May
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.9% 0.6% -0.3% N/A

For April
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: -0.3%, forecast -0.6%, pr. -0.4% (Mar), 0.2% (Feb), 0.1% (Jan),
0.7% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul),
2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Swiss consumer prices climbed 0.9% on the month in April, a figure that beat expectations. The annual rate, which turned negative in March was expected to show inflation decreasing 0.6%, but instead the number came in higher than that at -0.3%. That could quiet fears over deflation in the economy. The central bank has been taking strong action to try and squash deflation, by lowering rates to 0.5%, starting a program of quantitative easing, and also intervening in the forex markets to make sure the Swiss Franc does not rise against the Euro, which lowers the prices of imports adding to lower inflation.

April
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% 0.0% 0.2% N/A

For March
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: -0.4%, forecast -0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Feb), 0.1% (Jan), 0.7% (Dec),
1.5% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun),
2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Consumer prices fell more than expected in March sliding 0.3% on the month and falling into negative territory on an annual basis, rising the risk of deflation in the country. The annual decline of 0.4% is the biggest since December of 1959 and was primarily led by a decline in oil prices which tumbled 32% from a year ago. Other factors were a 4.8% drop in transportation costs and a slide of 1.7% in durable goods prices. The central bank has cut rates close to zero, currently they are at 0.25, and has intervened in currency markets to make sure the Swiss franc does not gain further against the Euro. That would cause import prices to fall, exasperating the fall in prices. Though consumers would benefit from lower prices, tit negatively impacts stores which hare charging lower for their goods, and if expectations are for further price falls in the future, consumer spending could dip as consumers wait for better deals down the road.

March
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% -0.1% -0.8% N/A

For February
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 0.2%, forecast 0.0%, pr. 0.1% (Jan), 0.7% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov),
2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May),
2.3% (Apr)

Swiss consumer prices unexpectedly increased 0.2% m/m in February after declining 0.8% m/m in January, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office said. The consumer-price inflation rate rose to 0.2% y/y from January’s 1.0% y/y. The Swiss National Bank is likely to cut its target for the 3-month Swiss franc LIBOR by 25 basis points to 0.25% next week and use unconventional measures to combat the Swiss recessionary economy.

February
10th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -0.5% -0.5% N/A

For January
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 0.1%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 0.7% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct),
2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

January
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% -0.3% -0.7% N/A

For December
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 0.7%, forecast 0.9%, pr. 1.5% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep),
2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Swiss consumer prices eased more than expected in December, falling 0.5% following a drop of 0.7% in November. That put the annual inflation rate at 0.7%, more than half the level seen in November, and down considerably from a peak of 3.1% in July. Prices are falling as a result of lower costs for oil products, though prices for transportation, housing and energy, and also for clothes and shoes dropped by more than 1% on the month. Lower inflation makes it easier for the Swiss National Bank to cut rates in order to support the economy, though rates were cut down to 0.50% already on December 11th, and theres not much lower you can go than that. Today's other release showed unemployment rising so the central bank and the government may opt to use other methods to try and prop up the economy. 

December
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% -0.3% 0.5% N/A

For November
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug),
3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Consumer prices fell 0.7% in November, a bigger than expected drop, which brought the annual rate to 1.5% from 2.6% in October. Lower oil prices helped cut transport costs 3.5% on a monthly basis. Food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped 0.5%. The Swiss central bank slashed interest rates by 100 basis points bringing the benchmark rate to 1% in an unscheduled move on November 20th. One of the main reasons behind the move was the easing of inflation. With inflation cooling, the bank is more concerned about an economy that is hitting the skids, and is looking at a flat rate of growth for 2009. 

November
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.4% 0.1% N/A

For October
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 2.6% forecast 2.5%, pr. 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul),
2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Inflation is sticking around a little longer in Switzerland, as the CPI in October rose to 0.5%, though the annual rate continues its recently started downtrend from its peak in July, dropping to 2.6% from September's 2.9%. The annual pace is slowing as oil prices fall and filter down to lower energy prices for consumers. With inflation abating, it gives the Swiss central bank more room to lower interest rates if policy members want to shore up economic growth.

September
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.1% -0.4% N/A

For August
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 2.9%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May),
2.3% (Apr)

Consumer prices in Switzerland declined for the month of August, decreasing 0.3%. That resulted in an annual rate of 2.9%, which brings the index back to its levels in May and June, compared to July's 3.1%. It may be a sign that as in other economies inflation may have peaked over the summer, thought there needs to be more data to confirm that. Despite better than expected GDP numbers the Swiss Franc fell to the US Dollar as the greenback performed well in overnight trading. 

July
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.5% 0.2% N/A

For July
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)

Annual consumer inflation hit a 15-year high of 3.1%, even as the monthly rate for July decreased 0.4% as a result of retailers cutting prices for clothes and shoes in summer sales. The Swiss National Bank has been on the sidelines recently in regards to interest rates, even as the ECB raised rates to counter inflationary pressures. Recent economic data has not been flattering for the Swiss economy, so an interest rate hike will come in the face of slowing activity. Still, policy member may feel it is necessary if inflation keeps climbing.