Preliminary Release for June
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

CPI y/y: 3.3%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 3.0%
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: 0.4%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.7%
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 3.4%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 3.1%

From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the consumer price index for Germany is expected to rise 3.3% in June 2008 on June 2007 (May 2008: +3.0%), according to results available from six Länder. This will be the largest price increase since December 1993. Compared with the previous month, the rate of change will be +0.3%. The harmonised consumer price index for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 3.4% from June 2007 to June 2008 (May 2008: +3.1%). Compared with the previous month, the index will be up 0.4%.

Factors contributing to the year-on-year rate of price increase, which was up again from May, are especially the large price rises for liquid fuel and motor fuels. Depending on the Land, liquid fuel prices rose by between 3.0% and 7.2% on May 2008 and were thus by between 57.3% and 69.3% above previous year’s levels. Motor fuel prices, too, increased again by between 1.8% and 3.2% and were thus by between 14.3% and 16.4% higher than a year earlier. Price increases for Diesel fuel were particularly large (1.9% to 4,5%) compared with May, so that Diesel fuel prices are now by 27.3% to 32.0% higher than a year ago. Food prices changed by between –0.2% and +0.7% on May 2008 and are now by 7.0% to 8.8% higher than a year ago.

The final results for June 2008 will be available on 16 July 2008."

CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 3.0%, prelim. 3.0%
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: 0.7%, forecast 0.6%, prelim. 0.6%
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.0%, prelim. 3.0%

Germany's CPI matched its preliminary estimate, though the harmonized consumer price index, calculated, for European purposes, was revised slightly up. Inflation is running at a pace of 3%, the second time this year it went above the 3% threshold. The data suggests the ECB is right in its stance to worry about inflation in the Euro-zone, even as the economy looks to be losing some of its momentum. It its last meeting the ECB signaled that it was a good possibility that policy members would raise rates in order to contain any second-round effects of inflation.    

From the Release: "The 0.6% price increase on April 2008 was especially due to markedly higher prices of liquid fuel (+12.1%) and motor fuels (+5.1%, including Diesel fuel: +7.4% and supergrade petrol: +4.5%). Also, compared with the previous month, seasonal price rises were observed for package holidays (+6.9%) and accommodation services (+3.5%). Food prices remained stable on average when compared with the previous month (0.0%). For some products, there were opposite price trends: For the first time since more than a year ago, milk, cheese and egg prices decreased markedly by 3.9% on the previous month.

The high year-on-year rate of price increase in May 2008 was particularly due to markedly higher energy prices, although the share of energy costs in the total expenditure of households was less than 10%. In a year-on-year comparison, and referring to energy products, prices were up especially for mineral oil products. The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages were up 7.5% (including food: +7.9% and non-alcoholic beverages: +5.1%) in May 2008 on May 2007. Marked year-on-year price rises were again observed for milk, cheese and eggs (+18.9%; including curd: +33.1% and UHT milk: +15.5%) and for oils and fats (+14.2%).

Preliminary Release for May
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 2.4% (Apr), pr. 3.1% (Mar)
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -0.3% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar)
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 3.0%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.6% (Apr), pr. 3.3% (Mar)

Consumer inflation in the Germany accelerated in May, preliminary information showed, giving the ECB more support for its stance to keep rates at their current level. For the month, inflation was up 0.6%, while the annual rate rose to 3% from April's 2.4%. Both figure were above expectations. For the monthly change, prices were led by increases to prices of heating oil and diesel fuel. The implication is that consumer inflation will be higher in the Euro-zone for the May period. The Euro was down today against the Dollar and Pound, so traders have overlooked the data for now, or have already decided that the ECB is going to stick with its stance on making sure there aren't second-round price effects in the medium term. 

CPI y/y: 2.4%, prelim. 2.4%, pr. 3.1%
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: -0.3%, prelim. -0.3%, pr. 0.5%
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 2.6%, prelim. 2.6%, pr. 3.3%

German consumer prices matched its preliminary release from April 28th. Prices were down 0.2% compared to a 0.5% rise in March. With no changes from the report 2 weeks ago, the impact of the release was minimal and markets focused more on 1st quarter GDP data and the inflation report from the entire Euro-zone. An early Easter may have had a statistical impact on the data, as package holidays and vacation accommodation lowered prices. With German inflation lower, the Euro-zone saw its annual rate fall to 3.3% in April from March's 3.6%.

Preliminary Release for April
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

CPI y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 3.1%
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: -0.3%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.5%
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 2.6%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.3%

Inflation in Germany surprised forecasts on the downside. However, the ECB may not be heartened too much by the news as April's early Easter led to a drop in costs for package holidays and vacation accommodations. The harmonized European Union CPI fell to an annual pace of 2.6% from 3.3%, beating expectations. 

The Euro-zone will post its flash estimate for April consumer prices on Wednesday. 

Final Release for March
News Release from Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.1%

Preliminary Release for February
News Release from Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 2.8%, forecast 2.7%, pr. 2.8% (revised up from 2.7%)
CPI - EU Harmonized m/m: 0.5%, forecast 0.4%, pr. -0.3%
CPI - EU Harmonized y/y: 2.9%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 2.9 (rev. down from 3.0%)

Inflation for German consumer came in higher than expected, a preliminary release for February shows. On the month prices were up 0.5%, while on the year, prices notched up to 2.8%. Inflation is the main concern currently of the European Central Bank, and the euro-zone's annual CPI nothced up today. As long as inflation persists, the hawkish ECB is going to hold rates steady, perhaps even in the face of a slowdown.

Preliminary Release for January
News Release from Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 2.7%, forecast 2.7%, pr. 2.8%
CPI - EU Harmonized m/m: -0.3%, forecast -0.3%, pr. 0.7%
CPI - EU Harmonized y/y: 3.0%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 3.1%

Preliminary data for German inflation to consumers showed a considerable slowdown in the month-over-month figure. CPI cooled from 0.5% in December to -0.3% in January. The annual rate of inflation notched down .1% to 2.7%. Final data will be released by the Federal Statistics Office on Feb 29th.