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Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for April
Provided by: EuroStat Official Release: PDF
CPI y/y: 3.3%, prelim. 3.3%, pr. 3.6%
The final version of CPI for April, showed inflation cooling to a 0.3% monthly rate and an annual rate of 3.3% - matching the flash estimate from April 30th. Inflation rose 1% on the month and 3.6% on the year in March.The surprise in the report was core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcahol and tobacco fell to 1.6% from March's 2%. The news should help ease some hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council, but rates will have to come down further before the policy members decide that bolstering growth is more important than lowering inflation. Today's GDP data from the Euro-zone suggests that the economy still did well during the 1st quarter, but that it is in store for bumpier times ahead. The Euro gained on the Dollar following German GDP data, set a high near 1.5546, but then retreated during the rest of overnight trading. The immediate result of the report was to weaken the Euro until it set a low near 1.5460 prior to the NY open. |
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Table of Past Data
| 8/16 | 9/14 | 10/16 | 11/15 | 12/14 | 1/16 | 2/29 | 3/14 | 4/16 | 5/15 | ||
| Actual | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| Forecast | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| Previous | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: Consumer Price Index y/y
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for April
Core CPI y/y: 1.6%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.0% The final version of CPI for April, showed inflation cooling to a 0.3% monthly rate and an annual rate of 3.3% - matching the flash estimate from April 30th. Inflation rose 1% on the month and 3.6% on the year in March.The surprise in the report was core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcahol and tobacco fell to 1.6% from March's 2%. The news should help ease some hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council, but rates will have to come down further before the policy members decide that bolstering growth is more important than lowering inflation. Today's GDP data from the Euro-zone suggests that the economy still did well during the 1st quarter, but that it is in store for bumpier times ahead. EUR/USD - Euro Sets High Following German GDP, Falters Afterwards: The Euro gained on the better than expected GDP news to set an intra-day high at 1.5545, but the pared those gains following its inflation results. The US session had a slew of reports, most painting a gloomier picture, yet the Dollar managed to extend its gains to test 1.5420.
EUR/JPY - Euro Falls From Resistance: The Euro-Yen pair hit resistance at near 163 overnight, and receded to fall below 162 during NY trading. The pair has been on a strong uptrend the earlier part of the week, and may now be correcting.
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Table of Past Data
| 9/28 | 10/31 | 11/30 | 1/4 | 1/31 | 3/3 | 3/31 | 4/16 | 4/30 | 5/15 | ||
| Actual | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| Forecast | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| Previous | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Consumer Price Index y/y
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Estimate for April
Euro area inflation is expected to be 3.3% in April 2008, according to Eurostat. This would be a welcome sign for the ECB as it has made clear that inflation is its top and chiefly only concern for monetary policy. The detailed breakdown in the final version of CPI will be released on May 15th. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for March
CPI y/y: 3.6%, forecast 3.5%, pr. 3.3%
The Euro had been gaining vs. the Dollar prior to the inflation report, but surged when consumer prices came in higher than expected. The pair climbed to 1.5967, setting a new record. The data reinforced the ECB resistance to cut rates even as signs point to a slowdown in the economy. The annual pace of 3.6% was the highest in 16 years. As can be expected, prices were stoked by rising food and energy costs. Food prices rose 6.2%, after climbing 5.8% in February. Energy prices were up 11.2%, the highest since May 2006. The mandate for the ECB is to fight inflation, and it will be hard pressed to lower rates in order to stimulate growth as that is not the bank's main function compared to the Federal Reserve. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for March
Core CPI y/y: 2.0%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.8% The Euro had been gaining vs. the Dollar prior to the inflation report, but surged when consumer prices came in higher than expected. The pair climbed to 1.5967, setting a new record. The data reinforced the ECB resistance to cut rates even as signs point to a slowdown in the economy. The annual pace of 3.6% was the highest in 16 years. As can be expected, prices were stoked by rising food and energy costs. Food prices rose 6.2%, after climbing 5.8% in February. Energy prices were up 11.2%, the highest since May 2006. The mandate for the ECB is to fight inflation, and it will be hard pressed to lower rates in order to stimulate growth as that is not the bank's main function compared to the Federal Reserve. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | ||
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Preliminary Estimate for March
The higher than expected inflation will keep the European Central Bank firmly in its hawkish stance, as the Governing Council and President Trichet have made in known that they do not want to see second-round effects of inflation to permeate throughout the economy. The EUR/USD did not move much after the news and has been in a narrow range overnight (on Sunday). It is testing resistance at 1.5835. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for February
CPI y/y: 3.3%, forecast 3.2%, pr. 3.2% Inflation in the Euro-zone was revised up to an annual pace of 3.3% in February for the final version of the release. Combating inflation is the primary concern of the European Central Bank, and an increase to inflation is the last thing the policy members want to see. Inflation at the monthly level was 0.3%, in line with expectations. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Estimate for February
The Eurozone shares a common problem with the US - inflation. But as opposed to the Fed, the ECB will put this issue at the forefront of its policy decision. After all, the slowdown in the US is much more entrenched then in the Eurozone, whose manufacturing activities are still expanding. The growth and interest rate yield differentials have been supporting a strong Euro. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for January
Italian CPI m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.4% Inflation was pushed up by costs to food, as well as record high crude oil. The final version of January CPI showed an annual change of 3.2%. Higher inflation is not giving the European Central Bank leeway to possibly stimulate economic growth through loosening of monetary policy. With the Euro hitting new record highs agains the Dollar, it may see its exports limited as they get more expensive for American consumers. The European Commission last week cut its forecast for 2008 euro-area growth to 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent. It raised its inflation forecast to 2.6 percent from 2.1 percent, which would be the highest since the euro's debut in 1999.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Estimate for January.
The preliminary estimate for January showed inflation creeping higher to 3.2%, beating expectations of inflation staying stable with December's 3.1%. The final version will be released on February 29th. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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Euro zone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for December. Official Release from Eurostat CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.1% Euro area annual inflation was 3.1% in December 2007, unchanged compared with November. Monthly inflation was 0.4%. For 2007 as a whole, annual inflation was 2.1%, and a separate report showed Germany's 2007 inflation rate to be 2.2%. As we noted in the German CPI comments, higher energy and food prices are fueling demands for higher worker wages, which is a secondary round of inflation, that the ECB wants to avoid. Bloomberg: "In the euro area, European inflation averaged 2.1 percent in 2007, staying above the ECB's ceiling for an eighth year even after policy makers doubled interest rates in the 18 months through June last year. Inflation stayed at the highest in more than six years in December as food and energy costs soared. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | N/A | ||
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Provisional Release for December. Final HICP figures are due to be released on Jan. 16th. The inflation rate for the euro-zone was 3.1% year-over-year, continuing the highest pace since the introduction of the Euro. Rising food and oil prices are cutting into consumer purchasing power, and are cited by workers that want larger wage increases. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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Euro zone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November. CPI y/y: 3.1% forecast 3.0%, pr. 2.6% Core CPI y/y: 1.9% forecast 2.0% pr. 1.9% Euro-zone inflation is a concern for the ECB as its annual CPI is above the target 2.0%. Prices for energy was mainly responsible for inflation as it soared 9.7%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | N/A | ||
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Estimate for November. The year-over-year inflation this month hit 3% as rising energy costs and climbing food prices are causing pressure for consumer items to rise. With a cooldown in the economy expected in the coming months, it put the central bank in an uncomfortable position of having to battle inflation when growth is slowing. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Euro zone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for October. Euro-zone CPI y/y: 2.6%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.6%. Euro-zone Core CPI y/y: 1.9%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.8% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | N/A | ||
| Estimate for October. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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Euro zone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for September. HICP y/y: 2.1% (Sept), prev. 1.7 (Aug). Prices exl. Energy and Food y/y: 2.0 (Sept), prev. 2.0% (Aug) Euro area annual inflation was 2.1% in September 2007, up from 1.7% in August, while monthly prices rose to 0.4%, according to Eurostat. The main components adding to inflation in the monthly figure were clothing, education and food, while hotels & restaurants, and communications added the least. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | N/A | ||
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Estimate for September. Consumer prices rose by 2.1%, a provisional reading by Eurostat showed. Final figures will come out on October 16th. Inflation is being fueled by soaring oil prices. Oil reached a record $83.90 a barrel this week. On the year, crude is up nearly 36%. A full breakdown of what sent the measure higher is not available in the provisional release. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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Euro zone (HICP) Inflation for August. (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices). HICP y/y: 1.7% (Aug), prev. 1.8% (July). HICP Core y/y: 2.0 (Aug), 1.9% (July) "Eurozone CPI inflation rose 1.7% y/y in August, compared to a 1.8% y/y rise in July, Eurostat reported. However, core CPI inflation accelerated to 2.0% y/y in August from 1.9% y/y in July. The ECB inflation-target upper limit is 2.0%. Core inflation has inched higher the last two years, while total inflation has moderated on lower energy costs. However, energy costs are likely to increase in September. The higher energy costs in September and high core inflation will pressure the ECB to hike interest rates when the credit turmoil ends." - Hans Nilsson |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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Euro zone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July. HICP y/y: 1.8% (July), prev. 1.9% (June). HICP Core y/y: 1.9% (July). Inflation in the EMU moderated to 1.8% y/y in July from 1.9% y/y in June. The inflation fell 0.2% m/m in July, making it unlikely that the European Central Bank will hike interest rates before the credit-market problems subside. - Hans Nilsson |
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