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Indicator Digest

Consumer Price Index
CPI is one of the most widely used measure of inflation, as it follows the price changes experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. This is usually measured by a following an index of a certain "basket of goods", that is made up of the the items needed by a household. "Core" CPI usually excludes volatile items, such as food and energy, in order to get a better sense of price changes without these prices factored in.

Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index m/m

Most Recent Release

February
18th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.3% -0.3% N/A

For January
Provided by: StatCan
Most Recent Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 1.9%, pr. 1.3% (Dec), 1.0% (Nov), 0.1% (Oct),
-0.9% (Sep), -0.8% (Aug), -0.9% (Jul), -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May),
0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec)
BOC Core CPI m/m:
0.1%, pr. -0.3% (Dec), 0.4% (Nov),
0.1% (Oct), 0.3% (Sep), 0.1% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun),
0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan)
BOC Core CPI y/y:
2.0%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.5% (Dec),
1.5% (Nov), 1.8% (Oct), 1.5% (Sep), 1.6% (Aug), 1.8% (Jul),
1.9% (Jun), 2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 1.9% in the 12 months to January, following a 1.3% increase in December 2009. January's increase was the largest since November 2008. The increase in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices. In January, gasoline prices were 23.9% higher than they were in January 2009. This follows a 25.6% rise in the 12 months to December 2009. Gasoline prices exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the third consecutive month, as a result of price volatility in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Prices at the pump have been relatively stable since July 2009."

 

Next Release Date: March 19th 2010, 7:00 EST

Table of Past Data

5/206/187/178/199/1710/1611/1812/171/202/18
Actual-0.1%0.7%0.3%-0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.1%0.5%-0.3%0.3%
Forecast0.2%0.4%0.3%-0.2%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.4%-0.1%0.3%
Previous0.2%-0.1%0.7%0.3%-0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.1%0.5%-0.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Secondary Indicator: CPI excl. Volatile Items

Most Recent Release

February
18th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.1% -0.3% N/A
Next Release Date: March 19th 2010, 7:00 EST

Table of Past Data

4/175/206/187/178/199/1710/1611/181/202/18
Actual0.3%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.1%-0.3%0.1%
Forecast0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.0%-0.2%0.1%
Previous0.5%0.3%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%-0.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Consumer Price Index m/m
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.1% 0.5% N/A

For December
Provided by: StatCan
Most Recent Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.0% (Nov), 0.1% (Oct),
-0.9% (Sep), -0.8% (Aug), -0.9% (Jul), -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May),
0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec)
BOC Core CPI m/m:
-0.3%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.4% (Nov),
0.1% (Oct), 0.3% (Sep), 0.1% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun),
0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan)
BOC Core CPI y/y:
1.5%, forecast 1.7%, pr. 1.5% (Nov),
1.8% (Oct), 1.5% (Sep), 1.6% (Aug), 1.8% (Jul), 1.9% (Jun),
2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 1.3% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.0% increase in November. December's increase was the largest since February 2009. The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices, which exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the second consecutive month. This follows an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices."

CPI excl. Volatile Items
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.2% 0.4% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
December
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.4% -0.1% N/A

For November
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 1.0%, pr. 0.1% (Oct), -0.9% (Sep), -0.8% (Aug),
-0.9% (Jul), -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May), 0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar),
1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct)
BOC Core CPI m/m:
0.4%, pr. 0.1% (Oct), 0.3% (Sep),
0.1% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr),
0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov)
BOC Core CPI y/y:
1.5%, pr. 1.8% (Oct), 1.5% (Sep),
1.6% (Aug), 1.8% (Jul), 1.9% (Jun), 2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr),
2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 1.0% in the 12 months to November, following a 0.1% increase in October. The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices. Prices at the pump are now exerting upward pressure on the CPI after an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices."

Consumer Price Index m/m
November
18th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A

For October
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 0.1%, pr. -0.9% (Sep), -0.8% (Aug), -0.9% (Jul),
-0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May), 0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb),
1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep)
BOC Core CPI m/m:
0.1%, pr. 0.3% (Sep), 0.1% (Aug),
0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar),
0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct)
BOC Core CPI y/y:
1.8%, pr. 1.5% (Sep), 1.6% (Aug),
1.8% (Jul), 1.9% (Jun), 2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar),
1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 0.1% in October compared with October 2008, following a 0.9% decline in September. This was the first 12-month increase since May 2009.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was mostly due to less downward pressure from gasoline prices. Gasoline prices in October 2009 were 13.1% below the level in October last year, compared with a 23.0% drop between September 2008 and September 2009."

 

CPI excl. Volatile Items
November
18th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.0% 0.3% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
October
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A

For September
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

CPI y/y: pr. -0.8% (Aug), -0.9% (Jul), -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May),
0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec),
2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul)
BOC Core CPI m/m:
pr. 0.1% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun),
0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan),
-0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct), 0.4% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug)
BOC Core CPI y/y:
pr. 1.6% (Aug), 1.8% (Jul), 1.9% (Jun),
2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan),
2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct), 1.7% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug)

CPI excl. Volatile Items
October
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
September
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.1% -0.3% N/A

For August
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

y/y: -0.8%, pr. -0.9% (Jul), -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May), 0.4% (Apr),
1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov),
2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul), 3.1% (Jun)

BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, pr. 0.0% (Jul), 0.0% (Jun), 0.4% (May),
0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec),
0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct), 0.4% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul)

BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.6%, pr. 1.8% (Jul), 1.9% (Jun), 2.0% (May),
1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec),
2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct), 1.7% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug), 1.5% (Jul)

From the Release: "Consumer prices fell 0.8% in the 12 months to August 2009, following a 0.9% decline in July. The decrease was due primarily to a 12-month drop of 19.1% in prices for energy products, mainly gasoline. Excluding energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4% between August 2008 and August 2009."

Prices were flat on the month, which was lower than expected. The importance here is that the Bank of Canada said that they would keep interest rates at a record low of 0.25% through June 2010, unless the inflation outlook changes. 

 

CPI excl. Volatile Items
September
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
August
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.2% 0.3% N/A

For July
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

y/y: -0.9%, pr. -0.3% (Jun), 0.1% (May), 0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar),
1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct),
3.4% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul), 3.1% (Jun), 2.2% (May)

BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.0% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr),
0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov),
-0.2% (Oct), 0.4% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul), 0.1% (Jun)

BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.8%, pr. 1.9% (Jun), 2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr),
2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov),
1.7% (Oct), 1.7% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug), 1.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun)

From the Release: "Consumer prices fell 0.9% in July 2009 compared with July 2008, following a 0.3% decrease in June. The decrease was due primarily to a 12-month decline of 23.4% in prices for energy products, particularly gasoline. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding energy rose 1.8% in the 12 months to July."

 

CPI excl. Volatile Items
August
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
July
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.3% 0.7% N/A

For June
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

y/y: -0.3%, pr. 0.1% (May), 0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb),
1.1% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep),
3.5% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul), 3.1% (Jun), 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr)

BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.4% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar),
0.5% (Feb), -0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct),
0.4% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul), 0.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May)

BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.9%, pr. 2.0% (May), 1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar),
1.9% (Feb), 1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct),
1.7% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug), 1.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun), 1.5% (May)

From the Release: "Consumer prices fell 0.3% in June compared with June 2008, following a 0.1% increase in May. It was the first 12-month decline in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) since November 1994. The decrease was due primarily to a 12-month decline of 19.0% in prices for energy products, particularly gasoline. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.1% in June."

CPI excl. Volatile Items
July
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.0% 0.4% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
June
18th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.4% -0.1% N/A

For May
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 0.1%, pr. 0.4% (Apr), 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan),
1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug),
3.4% (Jul), 3.1% (Jun), 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr)

BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.4%, pr. 0.1% (Apr), 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb),
-0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct), 0.4% (Sep),
0.3% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul), 0.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May)

BOC Core CPI y/y: 2.0%, pr.  1.8% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb),
1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct), 1.7% (Sep),
1.7% (Aug), 1.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun), 1.5% (May)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 0.1% in the 12 months to May 2009, down from the 0.4% increase in April. The slowdown in the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) was primarily the result of an 18.3% year-over-year price drop for energy products. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.3%.

The decline in the energy price index was due more to high prices in 2008 than to recent market developments. On a month-to-month basis, energy prices rose 4.4% from April to May.

Of the eight major components, upward pressure on the CPI continued to come primarily from increasing prices for food. While food prices remained strong, the increase has been slowing since March 2009. Excluding food, the CPI fell 1.2% in the 12 months to May. Continued price drops for gasoline and passenger vehicles drove transportation costs 8.2% lower, making this the most significant downward contributor to the CPI in the 12 months to May."

 

CPI excl. Volatile Items
June
18th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.1% 0.1% N/A
Consumer Price Index m/m
May
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.2% 0.2% N/A

For April
Provided by: StatCan
Current Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 0.4%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 1.2% (Mar), 1.4% (Feb), 1.1% (Jan),
1.2% (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 2.6% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul),
3.1% (Jun), 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr)

BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.3% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb),
-0.4% (Jan), -0.4% (Dec), 0.7% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct), 0.4% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug),
0.1% (Jul), 0.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May)

BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.8%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 2.0% (Mar), 1.9% (Feb),
1.9% (Jan), 2.4% (Dec), 2.4% (Nov), 1.7% (Oct), 1.7% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug),
1.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun), 1.5% (May)

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 0.4% in the 12 months to April 2009, down from the 1.2% increase in March. While upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came primarily from food, the slowdown was due mainly to price declines for energy and reduced upward pressure from non-energy shelter components.

Excluding food, the CPI fell 1.1% in the 12 months to April. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.4% over the same period."

CPI excl. Volatile Items
May
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.1% 0.3% N/A
CPI excl. Volatile Items
April
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.2% 0.5% N/A