For July
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, pr. 3.1%, 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr)
BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.1%, 0.3% (May)
BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.5%, 1.5% (May)

Canadian consumer prices increased 0.3% for the month of July, easing from the 0.7% seen in June. Still, that caused the annual rate to jump to 3.4%, from June's 3.1%. On the year, gasoline prices are up 28.6%. As the excerpt from the release below reveals, higher gasoline prices were a major factor. Lower prices to purchase and lease passenger vehicles helped to partially offset the impact of rising gasoline prices. Core prices stayed at the same level as June, coming in below forecasts. 

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 3.4% in July 2008 compared with July 2007, an increase from the 3.1% rise recorded in the 12 months to June 2008. Higher gasoline prices continued to exert the strongest upward pressure on consumer prices.

July saw the highest 12-month increase since March 2003. A climb in gasoline prices was the primary source of higher consumer prices in July. The 12-month variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the gasoline price index have been increasing at a faster pace over the past four months."

With oil increasing for a third day, and high annual inflation figures, the Canadian Dollar advanced in today's trading.  

For June
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr)
BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.3% (May), 0.3% (Apr)
BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.5% (May), 1.5% (Apr)

The annual inflation rate jumped to 3.1% in June, from May's 2.2%. The gains were primarily pushed up by gasoline prices, which reinforces the retail sales data which showed Canadians spending more to drive. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.7% from May to June, cooler than May's 1.0%, but higher than forecasts of a 0.5% change. The core rate was only up 0.1%, as energy is up 4.4% on the month and 18% on the year. Such high gas prices will cause consumers to limit spending on other goods, possibly weakening the economy.

From the Release: "Fueled by higher gasoline prices, consumer prices rose 3.1% in the 12-months ending June 2008, compared with the 2.2% gain recorded in May. June's increase was the largest since September 2005. Consumer prices excluding gasoline rose 1.8% in the 12 months to June.

Gasoline prices increased 26.9% between June 2007 and June 2008, significantly higher than the 15.0% advance posted in May. June's increase was the largest since the 34.7% gain reported for September 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted the oil market.

June's increase reflected both recent increases in pump prices, as well as the fact that gasoline prices had been on the decline in June 2007. In addition to gasoline prices, mortgage interest cost, bakery products and air transportation also exerted strong upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June."

USD/CAD - Greenback Strength Matches Loonie's Boost From CPI Data: The USD/CAD saw some Loonie strength following the CPI data but it stalled near 1.0060, and the greenback recovered back above the 1.01 level.

For May
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release 

CPI y/y: 2.2%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.7%
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.3%
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.5%, pr. 1.5%

From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 2.2% in May compared with May 2007, up from the 1.7% increase reported in April, as drivers faced significant increases in gasoline prices. The 0.5 percentage point acceleration in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was the sharpest since September 2007.

The 2.2% increase in May was the highest since January 2008, and was mostly a result of higher prices for gasoline, which rose 15.0% in May compared with the same month last year. This was considerably faster than the 12-month change of 11.6% posted in April. Excluding gasoline prices, the 12-month growth in May was 1.6%.

The Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, rose 1.5% between May 2007 and May 2008, identical to the 12-month increase posted in April. Lower prices for passenger vehicles dampened the upward pressure on the core index.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted all-items index rose 0.6% between April and May 2008, while the seasonally adjusted core index edged up 0.1%. The seasonally adjusted all-items rose 0.5% and the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.4% between March and April.

The 0.6% monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all-items index was the fastest rate of growth since January 2006. It reflects mainly the increase of gasoline prices."

For April
Latest Release Provided by: Statistics Canada

CPI y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.4%
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2%
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.3%

Consumer prices in Canada urged above expectations in April. The monthly figure doubled expectations, while annual all-item prices accelerated to 1.7%. Core prices were up as well, increasing 0.3% on the month and 1.5% on the year, both above expectations. The report cites higher gasoline prices and less downward pressure from passenger vehicle prices as the main culprits. Gasoline prices are up 11.6% between April 2007 and April 2008, increasing from 7.9% in last month's report. Excluding gasoline prices the annual pace was up 1.3%. Prices of fuel oil surged 36.9% compared to April of last year. Mortgage interest cost and new housing prices also put upward pressure on the index.

The news helped the Canadian Dollar break lower vs the US Dollar, reaching 0.9818 in the hour following the release, though that may have been an intra-day low for the day.

From the Release:

"Consumer prices accelerated for the first time in six months in April in the wake of higher gasoline prices and fewer incentives on passenger vehicles. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% between April 2007 and April 2008, up from the 1.4% increase in March. This was the first acceleration of the all-items index since November 2007.

Gasoline was the main contributor to both the acceleration and the 12-month increase of the all-items index. Gasoline prices rose 11.6% between April 2007 and April 2008, compared with a 7.9% increase posted a month earlier."

For March
Latest Release Provided by: Statistics Canada

CPI y/y: 1.4%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.8%
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.5%
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.5%

Consumer prices fell to an annual rate of 1.4% from 1.8%, a significant cooling in inflation. Core CPI year over year lowered to 1.3% from 1.5%. The Bank of Canada has been lowering rates as the Federal Reserve has in order to shore up economic growth. These numbers will give the Bank policy members more leeway in deciding if further rate cuts are warranted. On a monthly basis, CPI was up 0.4%, which matched February's level. The core monthly level eased back fro m0.5% to record a 0.2% increase.

From the Release:

"Consumer prices rose 1.4% on average in the 12 months to March 2008, the fourth consecutive month in which the rate of growth has decelerated. This was the slowest rate of growth since January 2007.

The main upward factor in March was mortgage interest cost, which rose 8.3%, while gasoline prices were the second most significant contributor. Prices at the pump rose by 7.9% between March 2007 and March 2008, less than half the rate of growth of 17.1% posted the previous month. If pump prices are excluded, the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.0% in the 12 months to March 2008.

The 12-month change in the Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, rose 1.3% in March, down from the 1.5% increase in February. This deceleration was mostly attributable to lower prices for automotive vehicles. Consumer prices rose 0.4% between February and March 2008, the same rate as in the preceding period. The core index increased by 0.2% between February and March 2008, a slowdown compared with the 0.5% increase during the previous period."

For March, Month-over-month
Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core
Provided by: Statistics Canada

Core CPI y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.5%

The core rate for CPI came in lower than the the consensus of forecasts. On the month inflation grew 0.2% for a 1.3% year-on-yaer gain. Lower core inflation will give the central bank policy members more leeway in deciding if further rate cuts are necessary. The annual core rate was the smallest since July 2005.

Gasoline prices were up 3.6% m/m and 7.9% y/y in March. In february gas prices had surged by 17.1%.    

For February
Provided by: Statistics Canada

CPI y/y: 1.8%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 2.2%
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: 0.5%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.1%
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.2%, pr. 1.4%

The Canadian Dollar rose today, the first gain in three days, after the release as "core" inflation increased more than expected. The Bank of Canada core rate increased to 1.5% when forecasts called for it to drop to 1.2%. The unexpected increase pushed the USD/CAD down to the .99 area, but the pair recovered after the US released its data. Annual inflation met expectations and fell to 1.8% from 2.2% in January as prices of cars and gasoline slowed. Its the first time in 7 months that annual inflation fell below the central bank's 2% target level. Lower overall inflation means the Bank of Canada has more leeway to cut rates when it meets in April. The Bank has brought rates down 3 consecutive meetings from 4.50% to 3.50%, and may cut again in order to continue to bolster growth. 

For January
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Source: Latest Release

CPI y/y: 2.2%, pr. 2.4% (Dec), 2.5% (Nov), 2.4% (Oct)
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, pr. -0.3% (Dec), 0.0% (Nov)
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.4%, pr. 1.5% (Dec), 1.6% (Nov), 1.8% (Oct)

"Consumer prices increased 2.2% during the 12-month period leading up to January 2008, a slightly slower rate of growth than the 2.4% posted in December. It was the slowest pace since August 2007.

For the fifth straight month, growth in the all-items index was due mainly to the 12-month rise in gasoline prices and mortgage interest cost. The upward pressure on the all-items index of these two components was mitigated, to some extent, by the one-percentage-point reduction in the goods and services tax (GST) that took effect in January, and by the reduction in motor vehicle prices.

Excluding gasoline, the price index increased only 1.3% in the year to January 2008.

The 12-month change in the Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, was 1.4% in January, the smallest gain since July 2005.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2% between December 2007 and January 2008, a reversal of the 0.1% increase between November and December 2007. This downturn was mainly due to seasonal declines in prices for tour packages and air transportation.

The core index rose 0.1% between December 2007 and January 2008, after declining 0.3% during the preceding period. This shift was due in part to women's clothing, prices for which fell only 0.4% in January compared with a decline of 4.7% in December."

For December.
Official Release from Statistics Canada

CPI y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.5% (Nov), 2.4% (Oct)
Bank of Canada Core CPI m/m: -0.3%, forecast -0.1%, pr. 0.0% (Nov)
Bank of Canada Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, pr. 1.6% (Nov), 1.8% (Oct)

"Consumer prices increased 2.4% between December 2006 and December 2007, a slight deceleration from the 12-month change of 2.5% posted in November.

Again this month, higher gasoline prices and mortgage interest costs were the main factors driving the increase.

The Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, rose by only 1.5% in December, the sixth consecutive month in which the index has decelerated. It was the slowest 12-month change in the core index since December 2005."