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Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For August
CPI y/y: 3.5%, pr. 3.4% (Jul), 3.1% (Jun), 2.2% (May), 1.7%
(Apr)
Consumer inflation in Canada surged to an annual rate of 3.5%, the highest since the 4.2% in March 2003. Gasoline prices led the way with a 26.3% increase since August 2007. Energy prices overall, including such sources as natural gas and fuel oil rose 20.2% on the year. Energy prices in turn caused elevated transportation costs (+5.8% y/y). Food prices (+4.5% y/y) and shelter prices (+5.3% y/y) also were main contributors. Clothing and footwear (-1.8% y/y) was the only component without prices increasing on the year.
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Table of Past Data
| 12/18 | 1/25 | 2/19 | 3/18 | 4/17 | 5/21 | 6/19 | 7/23 | 8/21 | 9/23 | ||
| Actual | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.2% | |
| Previous | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |

Secondary Indicator: CPI excl. Volatile Items
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
| See "Consumer Price Index" | |||||
Table of Past Data
| 11/20 | 12/18 | 1/25 | 2/19 | 3/18 | 4/17 | 6/19 | 7/23 | 8/21 | 9/23 | ||
| Actual | -0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| Forecast | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Consumer Price Index m/m
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For July
CPI y/y: 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, pr. 3.1%, 2.2% (May), 1.7%
(Apr)
Canadian consumer prices increased 0.3% for the month of July, easing from the 0.7% seen in June. Still, that caused the annual rate to jump to 3.4%, from June's 3.1%. On the year, gasoline prices are up 28.6%. As the excerpt from the release below reveals, higher gasoline prices were a major factor. Lower prices to purchase and lease passenger vehicles helped to partially offset the impact of rising gasoline prices. Core prices stayed at the same level as June, coming in below forecasts.
With oil increasing for a third day, and high annual inflation figures, the Canadian Dollar advanced in today's trading. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | N/A | ||
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For June
CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.2% (May), 1.7%
(Apr)
The annual inflation rate jumped to 3.1% in June, from May's 2.2%. The gains were primarily pushed up by gasoline prices, which reinforces the retail sales data which showed Canadians spending more to drive. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.7% from May to June, cooler than May's 1.0%, but higher than forecasts of a 0.5% change. The core rate was only up 0.1%, as energy is up 4.4% on the month and 18% on the year. Such high gas prices will cause consumers to limit spending on other goods, possibly weakening the economy.
USD/CAD - Greenback Strength Matches Loonie's Boost From CPI Data: The USD/CAD saw some Loonie strength following the CPI data but it stalled near 1.0060, and the greenback recovered back above the 1.01 level.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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For May
CPI y/y: 2.2%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.7%
From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 2.2% in May compared with May 2007, up from the 1.7% increase reported in April, as drivers faced significant increases in gasoline prices. The 0.5 percentage point acceleration in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was the sharpest since September 2007. The 2.2% increase in May was the highest since January 2008, and was mostly a result of higher prices for gasoline, which rose 15.0% in May compared with the same month last year. This was considerably faster than the 12-month change of 11.6% posted in April. Excluding gasoline prices, the 12-month growth in May was 1.6%. The Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, rose 1.5% between May 2007 and May 2008, identical to the 12-month increase posted in April. Lower prices for passenger vehicles dampened the upward pressure on the core index. On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted all-items index rose 0.6% between April and May 2008, while the seasonally adjusted core index edged up 0.1%. The seasonally adjusted all-items rose 0.5% and the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.4% between March and April. The 0.6% monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all-items index was the fastest rate of growth since January 2006. It reflects mainly the increase of gasoline prices."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For May
Provided by StatCan |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For April
CPI y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.4%
Consumer prices in Canada urged above expectations in April. The monthly figure doubled expectations, while annual all-item prices accelerated to 1.7%. Core prices were up as well, increasing 0.3% on the month and 1.5% on the year, both above expectations. The report cites higher gasoline prices and less downward pressure from passenger vehicle prices as the main culprits. Gasoline prices are up 11.6% between April 2007 and April 2008, increasing from 7.9% in last month's report. Excluding gasoline prices the annual pace was up 1.3%. Prices of fuel oil surged 36.9% compared to April of last year. Mortgage interest cost and new housing prices also put upward pressure on the index. The news helped the Canadian Dollar break lower vs the US Dollar, reaching 0.9818 in the hour following the release, though that may have been an intra-day low for the day. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For March
CPI y/y: 1.4%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.8%
Consumer prices fell to an annual rate of 1.4% from 1.8%, a significant cooling in inflation. Core CPI year over year lowered to 1.3% from 1.5%. The Bank of Canada has been lowering rates as the Federal Reserve has in order to shore up economic growth. These numbers will give the Bank policy members more leeway in deciding if further rate cuts are warranted. On a monthly basis, CPI was up 0.4%, which matched February's level. The core monthly level eased back fro m0.5% to record a 0.2% increase. From the Release: "Consumer prices rose 1.4% on average in the 12 months to March 2008, the fourth consecutive month in which the rate of growth has decelerated. This was the slowest rate of growth since January 2007. The main upward factor in March was mortgage interest cost, which rose 8.3%, while gasoline prices were the second most significant contributor. Prices at the pump rose by 7.9% between March 2007 and March 2008, less than half the rate of growth of 17.1% posted the previous month. If pump prices are excluded, the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.0% in the 12 months to March 2008. The 12-month change in the Bank of Canada's core index, which is used to monitor the inflation control target, rose 1.3% in March, down from the 1.5% increase in February. This deceleration was mostly attributable to lower prices for automotive vehicles. Consumer prices rose 0.4% between February and March 2008, the same rate as in the preceding period. The core index increased by 0.2% between February and March 2008, a slowdown compared with the 0.5% increase during the previous period." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For March, Month-over-month
Core CPI y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.5% The core rate for CPI came in lower than the the consensus of forecasts. On the month inflation grew 0.2% for a 1.3% year-on-yaer gain. Lower core inflation will give the central bank policy members more leeway in deciding if further rate cuts are necessary. The annual core rate was the smallest since July 2005. Gasoline prices were up 3.6% m/m and 7.9% y/y in March. In february gas prices had surged by 17.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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For February
CPI y/y: 1.8%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 2.2%
The Canadian Dollar rose today, the first gain in three days, after the release as "core" inflation increased more than expected. The Bank of Canada core rate increased to 1.5% when forecasts called for it to drop to 1.2%. The unexpected increase pushed the USD/CAD down to the .99 area, but the pair recovered after the US released its data. Annual inflation met expectations and fell to 1.8% from 2.2% in January as prices of cars and gasoline slowed. Its the first time in 7 months that annual inflation fell below the central bank's 2% target level. Lower overall inflation means the Bank of Canada has more leeway to cut rates when it meets in April. The Bank has brought rates down 3 consecutive meetings from 4.50% to 3.50%, and may cut again in order to continue to bolster growth. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For January
CPI y/y: 2.2%, pr. 2.4% (Dec), 2.5% (Nov), 2.4% (Oct)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For December.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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For November. Release from Statistics Canada CPI y/y: 2.5%, pr. 2.4% (Oct) Core CPI y/y: 1.6%, pr. 1.8% (Oct) Overall inflation picked up in November, with year-over-year prices for consumers increasing 2.5%. The change was fueled by higher gasoline prices and mortgage interest costs. Core inflation slowed however, and has been declining since July. The core index y/y was 2.2% in August, 2.0% in September, and 1.8% in October. The price of gasoline was a main culprit in the higher non-core CPI figure as it has increased 17.6% from a year ago. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | N/A |
















