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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
CPI y/y: 2.1%, pr. 1.3% (3Q), 1.5% (2Q), 2.5% (1Q), 3.7% (4Q),
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| 10/23 | 1/22 | 4/22 | 7/22 | 10/21 | 1/27 | 4/21 | 7/21 | 10/27 | 1/26 | ||
| Actual | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | |
| Forecast | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| Previous | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |

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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.8% | N/A | |||
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For February
1.2% (Oct), 1.3% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug) |
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| 5/31 | 7/5 | 7/30 | 8/30 | 10/1 | 11/1 | 11/29 | 1/17 | 1/31 | 2/28 | ||
| Actual | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For January
1.3% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For December
1.3% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | -0.3% | N/A | |||
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For November
Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.1%, pr. 1.2% (Oct), 1.3% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug) Inflation in Australia rose 0.3% on the month in November according to the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge. The annual rate meanwhile jumped to 2.1%, after gaining 1.2% in October. That could increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates when it concludes its meeting tomorrow. The RBA likes to see inflation between 2% and 3% in annual terms, and today's report shows that inflation has risen back into the central bank's target. The official measure of inflation, the consumer price index, rose an annual 1.3%, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 1999. Expectations are for another 0.25% rate hike by the RBA which would bring rates up to 3.75%. With the Australian economy outperforming global peers, its current cash rate may be too accommodative. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.0% | N/A | |||
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For October
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter
CPI y/y: 1.3%, pr. 1.5% (2Q), 2.5% (1Q), 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q),
Inflation in Australia rose 1% in the 3rd quarter, a pace that was slightly higher than forecast, and higher than the 0.5% pace set in the 2nd quarter. However, on an annual basis inflation grew by 1.3%, weaker than in the previous quarter and the slowest pace in 10 years. The figure weakened the Australian Dollar as it may reduce the pace at which the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates. The RBA is the first central bank out of the Group of 20 nations to raise rates, and that helped the Aussie to rally strongly the past month. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A | |||
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For September
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.9% | N/A | |||
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For July
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.4% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
CPI y/y: 1.5%, pr. 2.5% (1Q), 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q), 4.5% (2Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | -0.3% | N/A | |||
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For June
Inflation Gauge y/y: 1.4% pr. 1.5% (May), 2.1% (Apr), 2.6% (Mar),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.0% | N/A | |||
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For May
Inflation Gauge y/y: 1.5%, pr. 2.1% (Apr), 2.6% (Mar), 3.1% (Feb),
The TDMI inflation gauge fell 0.3% in May, while annual inflation slowed to 1.5%, the lowest annual pace since records began. It also falls below the target band of 2% to 3% set by the RBA. Lower inflation means companies have to cut prices in order to lure consumers and can mean lower prices for assets that weakens how much wealth is held. It will also open up the door for another cut by the RBA if it feels that the economy is continuing to slide and even looser monetary stance is warranted. Other data today showed retail sales up for a second straight month while new home sales rose for a fourth straight month, indications the recession may be easing. However, the 1st quarter saw operating profits fall rather sharply, and inflation softening yet again in May. If the bank senses a risk of deflation they may be tempted to lower rates, but such a move is unlikely when the bank concludes its meeting overnight. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
CPI y/y: 2.5%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q), 4.5% (2Q),
Australia's consumer prices rose 0.1% in the 1st quarter, a result that was lower than expected. That brought the annual rate down to an 18 month low of 2.5%, from 3.7% in the 4th quarter. Lower inflation gives the central bank more scope to keep borrowing costs near a half-century low in order to spur domestic demand. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
RBA Trimmed q/q: 0.6%, pr 1.2% (3Q), 1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q) RBA Trimmed y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.6% (3Q), 4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q) RBA Weighted q/q: 0.9%, pr. 1.3% (3Q), 1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q) RBA Weighted y/y: 4.5%, pr. 4.8% (3Q), 4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter
RBA Trimmed q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.0%, pr 1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q) RBA Trimmed y/y: 4.6%, forecast 4.5%, pr. 4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q) RBA Weighted q/q: 1.3%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q) RBA Weighted y/y: 4.8%, forecast 4.5%, pr. 4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | N/A | ||
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For 2nd Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.1%, pr 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q)
Australian inflation rose 1.5% in the 2nd quarter and 4.5% compared to a year ago. Both figures were above forecasts but may not have much effect on expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. In last week's minutes, the RBA stated that they expected another high reading for the June quarter, so the outlook for the RBA isn't changed. With domestic growth feeling some strains, the RBA will keep rates constant and try and wait out this recent bout of inflation. AUS/USD - Aussie Falls As RBA Seen on Sidelines Now: Therefore, despite the higher than expected number, the AUD/USD weakened following the news as Greenback strength carried over from yesterday's NY session. The pair fell to 0.9600 in NY trading on Wednesday. That's 230 pips lower than its 25 year high, set last Tuesday near 0.9850. With the Reserve Bank on the sidelines the Aussie will be weaker against the Dollar if the Fed chooses to start raising rates.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.9%, pr 1.0% (4Q), 0.9% (3Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 1.9% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter. CPI y/y: 1.9%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 2.1%. RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 0.9%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Trimmed Mean y/y: 2.9%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 2.7% RBA Weighted Mean q/q: 1.0%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Weighted Mean y/y: 3.1%, forecase 2.8%, pr. 2.9% Australia core inflation jumped this past quarter, and may alarm the central bank to move on interest rates one more time this year. The Central Bank's Weighted Mean came in at 1%, which is biggest increase since 1991. This is used as the "core" measure since the largest price gains and declines are excluded from the measure. The release caused a jump in the Aussie, which set a 7 session high before retreating.
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