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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
CPI y/y: 2.5%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q), 4.5% (2Q),
Australia's consumer prices rose 0.1% in the 1st quarter, a result that was lower than expected. That brought the annual rate down to an 18 month low of 2.5%, from 3.7% in the 4th quarter. Lower inflation gives the central bank more scope to keep borrowing costs near a half-century low in order to spur domestic demand. |
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| 1/23 | 4/23 | 7/24 | 10/23 | 1/22 | 4/22 | 7/22 | 10/21 | 1/27 | 4/21 | ||
| Actual | -0.10% | 0.1% | +1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Forecast | 0.20% | 0.6% | +1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.5% | |
| Previous | 0.90% | -0.1% | +0.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.0% | N/A | |||
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For May
Inflation Gauge y/y: 1.5%, pr. 2.1% (Apr), 2.6% (Mar), 3.1% (Feb),
The TDMI inflation gauge fell 0.3% in May, while annual inflation slowed to 1.5%, the lowest annual pace since records began. It also falls below the target band of 2% to 3% set by the RBA. Lower inflation means companies have to cut prices in order to lure consumers and can mean lower prices for assets that weakens how much wealth is held. It will also open up the door for another cut by the RBA if it feels that the economy is continuing to slide and even looser monetary stance is warranted. Other data today showed retail sales up for a second straight month while new home sales rose for a fourth straight month, indications the recession may be easing. However, the 1st quarter saw operating profits fall rather sharply, and inflation softening yet again in May. If the bank senses a risk of deflation they may be tempted to lower rates, but such a move is unlikely when the bank concludes its meeting overnight. |
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| 8/31 | 10/2 | 11/2 | 11/30 | 1/18 | 2/1 | 3/1 | 4/5 | 5/3 | 5/31 | ||
| Actual | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.3% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | -0.1% | N/A | |||
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For April
Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.1%, pr. 2.6% (Mar), 3.1% (Feb), 2.7% (Jan),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.7% | N/A | |||
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For March
Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.6%, pr. 3.1% (Feb), 2.7% (Jan), 2.2% (Dec),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.8% | N/A | |||
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For February
Inflation Gauge y/y: 3.1%, pr. 2.7% (Jan), 2.2% (Dec), 3.0% (Nov),
The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute monthly measure of inflation registered a 0.7% increase on the month, slightly lower than the 0.8% seen in January. The annual rate rose to 3.1% from 2.7%, the second month in a row that inflation has accelerated. Prices of gasoline, restaurant food, and computing equipment were the main culprits behind the rise in inflation. The numbers signal that inflation is still prevalent in an economy that is now facing pressures from the global recession which is sapping demand for exports. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow at 10:30 PM EST, and expectations are for a quarter point or half point cut to 3% or 2.75%. Currently rates are at 3.25%, which is a full 400 basis points, or 4%, lower than where rates were last August. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | -0.2% | N/A | |||
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For January
Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.7%, pr. 2.2% (Dec), 3.0% (Nov), 3.9% (Oct),
A private gauge of Australian inflation showed a jump in January of 0.8%, as seasonal increases in utility, drug and transport costs put an end to three consecutive months of declines. On the year, prices were up 2.7%, an increase from the 2.2% seen in December. January usually brings an increase in utility and transport fare prices so this may not be a sign that inflation is ready to pick up again. The RBA will be deciding on interest rates on Tuesday and is expected to lower rates by 100 basis points. This release should not derail those plans. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
RBA Trimmed q/q: 0.6%, pr 1.2% (3Q), 1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q) RBA Trimmed y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.6% (3Q), 4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q) RBA Weighted q/q: 0.9%, pr. 1.3% (3Q), 1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q) RBA Weighted y/y: 4.5%, pr. 4.8% (3Q), 4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.6% | N/A | |||
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For December
Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.2%, pr. 3.0% (Nov), 3.9% (Oct), 4.5% (Sep),
Annual inflation in Australia continued to ease in December, slowing to a growth rate of 2.2%. Annual inflation was running as high as 4.8% in June. On the month prices were down 0.2% following a 0.6% decline in November. Slower inflation is a sign that the Australian economy faces its first recession since 1991, as GDP grew at its weakest pace in 8 years in the third quarter. Falling prices will pressure the RBA to continue its rate cutting campaign. Prices came down mainly as a result of lower gasoline prices, a phenomenon seen around the world, and also lower prices for fruits and vegetables. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.2% | N/A | |||
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For November
Inflation Gauge y/y: 3.0%, pr. 3.9% (Oct), 4.5% (Sep), 4.2% (Aug),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For October
Inflation Gauge y/y: 3.9%, pr. 4.5% (Sep), 4.2% (Aug), 4.6% (Jul),
Australia's monthly measure of inflation saw a decline of 0.2% while the annual rate slowed to below 4% for the first time since January. The report should ease any lingering pressure on the RBA on the inflation side, and clears the way for another 50 basis point reduction late Monday evening. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter
RBA Trimmed q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.0%, pr 1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q) RBA Trimmed y/y: 4.6%, forecast 4.5%, pr. 4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q) RBA Weighted q/q: 1.3%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q) RBA Weighted y/y: 4.8%, forecast 4.5%, pr. 4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.1% | N/A | |||
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For September
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.5%, pr. 4.2% (Aug), 4.6% (Jul), pr. 4.8% (Jun),
Inflation picked up in September, increasing 0.4% on the month and the annual pace rose back to the 4.5% level from August's dip to 4.2%. It was the 8th straight month that the monthly rate increased. Inflation climbed due to the falling Australian dollar and comes despite the slowing economy and softer commodity prices. The central bank has already set about cutting interest rates, in the hope that inflation was contained and would slow as demand slowed. However, policy makers are faced with a real dilemma in whether to continue to try and shore up the economy, or to refocus their efforts on limiting the growth of prices. The AUS/USD gained following the release, but those gains were pared down in the NY session. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For August
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.6% (Jul), pr. 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May),
TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose 0.1% in August and was up 4.2% over the year. That's the 3rd month were the pace of growth decelerated. It had been 4.8% in June, then 4.6% in July. Prices this month were pushed up by fruits and vegetables, insurance, gas and other household fuels. Cheaper gasoline actually offset some of those gains. If gasoline prices were excluded, inflation on the month would have risen a 0.6% on the month. The Reserve Bank of Australia, and its Governor Stevens has a target of inflation between 2-3%, but inflation has been above 4% since March. Still, the RBA must be heartened by the deceleration of the annual rate, though some core price pressures were masked by a fall in gasoline prices. Expectations are for a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate it completes its meeting tomorrow (Tues. at 12:30 AM EST). That should be the start of a cutting campaign that can bring rates down around 1 percentage point in the next 12 months. Stevens hopes that as the economy eases, inflation will as well. The Aussie slid overnight vs. the Dollar and Yen. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | N/A | ||
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For 2nd Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.1%, pr 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q)
Australian inflation rose 1.5% in the 2nd quarter and 4.5% compared to a year ago. Both figures were above forecasts but may not have much effect on expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. In last week's minutes, the RBA stated that they expected another high reading for the June quarter, so the outlook for the RBA isn't changed. With domestic growth feeling some strains, the RBA will keep rates constant and try and wait out this recent bout of inflation. AUS/USD - Aussie Falls As RBA Seen on Sidelines Now: Therefore, despite the higher than expected number, the AUD/USD weakened following the news as Greenback strength carried over from yesterday's NY session. The pair fell to 0.9600 in NY trading on Wednesday. That's 230 pips lower than its 25 year high, set last Tuesday near 0.9850. With the Reserve Bank on the sidelines the Aussie will be weaker against the Dollar if the Fed chooses to start raising rates.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.9%, pr 1.0% (4Q), 0.9% (3Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 1.9% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter. CPI y/y: 1.9%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 2.1%. RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 0.9%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Trimmed Mean y/y: 2.9%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 2.7% RBA Weighted Mean q/q: 1.0%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Weighted Mean y/y: 3.1%, forecase 2.8%, pr. 2.9% Australia core inflation jumped this past quarter, and may alarm the central bank to move on interest rates one more time this year. The Central Bank's Weighted Mean came in at 1%, which is biggest increase since 1991. This is used as the "core" measure since the largest price gains and declines are excluded from the measure. The release caused a jump in the Aussie, which set a 7 session high before retreating. 
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| +1.2% | +1.0% | +0.1% | N/A | ||
| Notable increases were in prices of automotive fuel (+9.1%), hospital and medical services(+3.4%), fruit(+8.4%), vegetables (+6.1%). Prices for Holiday travel and accommodation as well as computing equipments slightly offset these increases. For the year-over-year to the June 2007 quarter, ABS observed a 2.1% overall consumer price increase. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, house purchase, secondary education fees, and rents lead the increase while, fruits, furniture, overseas holiday travel and accommodation, and audio/visual and computing equipments lead the decrease. For y/y the CPI is 2.4% | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.90% | N/A | ||
| Australia’s underlying inflation rate slowed more than expected in Q4 and consumer prices fell for the first time in 8 years. | |||||
