For January
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

For December
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

For November
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

Inflation Gauge y/y: 2.1%, pr. 1.2% (Oct), 1.3% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug)

Inflation in Australia rose 0.3% on the month in November according to the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge. The annual rate meanwhile jumped to 2.1%, after gaining 1.2% in October. That could increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates when it concludes its meeting tomorrow. The RBA likes to see inflation between 2% and 3% in annual terms, and today's report shows that inflation has risen back into the central bank's target. The official measure of inflation, the consumer price index, rose an annual 1.3%, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 1999.

Expectations are for another 0.25% rate hike by the RBA which would bring rates up to 3.75%. With the Australian economy outperforming global peers, its current cash rate may be too accommodative. 

For October
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

For 3rd Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI y/y: 1.3%, pr. 1.5% (2Q), 2.5% (1Q), 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q),
4.5% (2Q), 4.2% (1Q), 3.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed q/q: 0.8%, pr. 0.8% (2Q), 1.0% (1Q), 0.6% (4Q),
1.2% (3Q), 1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed y/y: 3.2%, pr. 3.6% (2Q), 3.9% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q),
4.6% (3Q), 4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted q/q: 0.8%, pr. 0.8% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 0.9% (4Q),
1.3% (3Q), 1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted y/y: 3.8%, pr. 4.2% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 4.5% (4Q),
4.8% (3Q), 4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q '07)

Inflation in Australia rose 1% in the 3rd quarter, a pace that was slightly higher than forecast, and higher than the 0.5% pace set in the 2nd quarter. However, on an annual basis inflation grew by 1.3%, weaker than in the previous quarter and the slowest pace in 10 years. The figure weakened the Australian Dollar as it may reduce the pace at which the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates. The RBA is the first central bank out of the Group of 20 nations to raise rates, and that helped the Aussie to rally strongly the past month.

For September
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

For 1st Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI y/y: 1.5%, pr. 2.5% (1Q), 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q), 4.5% (2Q),
4.2% (1Q), 3.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed q/q: 0.8%, pr. 1.0% (1Q), 0.6% (4Q), 1.2% (3Q),
1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed y/y: 3.6%, pr. 3.9% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q), 4.6% (3Q),
4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted q/q: 0.8%, pr. 1.2% (1Q), 0.9% (4Q), 1.3% (3Q),
1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted y/y: 4.2%,  pr. 4.4% (1Q), 4.5% (4Q), 4.8% (3Q),
4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q '07)

For June
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

Inflation Gauge y/y: 1.4% pr. 1.5% (May), 2.1% (Apr), 2.6% (Mar),
3.1% (Feb), 2.7% (Jan), 2.2% (Dec), 3.0% (Nov), 3.9% (Oct),
4.5% (Sep), 4.2% (Aug), 4.6% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May),
4.3% (Apr)

For May
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required)

Inflation Gauge y/y: 1.5%, pr. 2.1% (Apr), 2.6% (Mar), 3.1% (Feb),
2.7% (Jan), 2.2% (Dec), 3.0% (Nov), 3.9% (Oct), 4.5% (Sep), 4.2% (Aug),
4.6% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May), 4.3% (Apr)

The TDMI inflation gauge fell 0.3% in May, while annual inflation slowed to 1.5%, the lowest annual pace since records began. It also falls below the target band of 2% to 3% set by the RBA. Lower inflation means companies have to cut prices in order to lure consumers and can mean lower prices for assets that weakens how much wealth is held. It will also open up the door for another cut by the RBA if it feels that the economy is continuing to slide and even looser monetary stance is warranted. Other data today showed retail sales up for a second straight month while new home sales rose for a fourth straight month, indications the recession may be easing. However, the 1st quarter saw operating profits fall rather sharply, and inflation softening yet again in May. If the bank senses a risk of deflation they may be tempted to lower rates, but such a move is unlikely when the bank concludes its meeting overnight.

For 1st Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI y/y: 2.5%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 3.7% (4Q), 5.0% (3Q), 4.5% (2Q),
4.2% (1Q), 3.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed q/q: 1.0%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.6% (4Q), 1.2% (3Q),
1.2% (2Q), 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q '07)
RBA Trimmed y/y: 3.9%, forecast 3.8%, pr. 4.2% (4Q), 4.6% (3Q),
4.3% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% (4Q), 1.3% (3Q),
1.0% (2Q), 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q '07)
RBA Weighted y/y: 4.4%, forecast 4.0%, pr. 4.5% (4Q), 4.8% (3Q),
4.0% (2Q), 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q '07)

Australia's consumer prices rose 0.1% in the 1st quarter, a result that was lower than expected. That brought the annual rate down to an 18 month low of 2.5%, from 3.7% in the 4th quarter. Lower inflation gives the central bank more scope to keep borrowing costs near a half-century low in order to spur domestic demand.

For 4th Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

For 3rd Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

For 2nd Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI y/y: 4.5%, forecast 4.3%, pr. 4.2% (1Q), 3.0% (4Q '07)

RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.1%, pr 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q)
RBA Trimmed Mean y/y: 4.3%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.1% (1Q), 3.4% (4Q)
RBA Weighted Mean q/q: 1.0%, forecast 1.1%, pr. 1.3% (1Q), 1.1% (4Q)
RBA Weighted Mean y/y: 4.0%, forecast 4.4%, pr. 4.4% (1Q), 3.8% (4Q)

Australian inflation rose 1.5% in the 2nd quarter and 4.5% compared to a year ago. Both figures were above forecasts but may not have much effect on expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. In last week's minutes, the RBA stated that they expected another high reading for the June quarter, so the outlook for the RBA isn't changed. With domestic growth feeling some strains, the RBA will keep rates constant and try and wait out this recent bout of inflation.

AUS/USD - Aussie Falls As RBA Seen on Sidelines Now: Therefore, despite the higher than expected number, the AUD/USD weakened following the news as Greenback strength carried over from yesterday's NY session. The pair fell to 0.9600 in NY trading on Wednesday. That's 230 pips lower than its 25 year high, set last Tuesday near 0.9850. With the Reserve Bank on the sidelines the Aussie will be weaker against the Dollar if the Fed chooses to start raising rates.

For 1st Quarter
Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI y/y: 4.2%, forecast 4.0%, pr. 3.0% (4th Q), 1.9% (3rd Q)

RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.9%, pr 1.0% (4Q), 0.9% (3Q)
RBA Trimmed Mean y/y: 4.1%, forecast 3.8%, pr. 3.4% (4Q), 2.9% (3Q),
RBA Weighted Mean q/q: 1.3%, forecast 0.9%, pr. 1.1% (4Q), pr. 0.9% (3Q)
RBA Weighted Mean y/y: 4.4%, forecast 4.0%, pr. 3.8% (4Q), pr 3.1% (3Q)

As the central bank has projected, inflation has surged in the first quarter. The 4.2% annual measure was the highest in 7 years. Firms are facing higher costs from both fuel prices and higher demand for labor. Speculations are increasing that the RBA will continue increasing interest rates. The inflation report boosted the Aussie, which gained last night. But as the European session got underway, the Aussie started to pare those gains.