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Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index q/q
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | N/A | ||
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For 2nd Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 1.1%, pr 1.2% (1Q), 1.0% (4Q)
Australian inflation rose 1.5% in the 2nd quarter and 4.5% compared to a year ago. Both figures were above forecasts but may not have much effect on expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. In last week's minutes, the RBA stated that they expected another high reading for the June quarter, so the outlook for the RBA isn't changed. With domestic growth feeling some strains, the RBA will keep rates constant and try and wait out this recent bout of inflation. AUS/USD - Aussie Falls As RBA Seen on Sidelines Now: Therefore, despite the higher than expected number, the AUD/USD weakened following the news as Greenback strength carried over from yesterday's NY session. The pair fell to 0.9600 in NY trading on Wednesday. That's 230 pips lower than its 25 year high, set last Tuesday near 0.9850. With the Reserve Bank on the sidelines the Aussie will be weaker against the Dollar if the Fed chooses to start raising rates.
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Table of Past Data
| 4/25 | 7/25 | 10/24 | 1/23 | 4/23 | 7/24 | 10/23 | 1/22 | 4/22 | 7/22 | ||
| Actual | 0.90% | 1.60% | 0.90% | -0.10% | 0.1% | +1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| Forecast | 0.80% | 1.10% | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.6% | +1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| Previous | 0.50% | 0.90% | 1.60% | 0.90% | -0.1% | +0.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: TDMI Inflation Gauge
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.1% | N/A | |||
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For September
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.5%, pr. 4.2% (Aug), 4.6% (Jul), pr. 4.8% (Jun),
Inflation picked up in September, increasing 0.4% on the month and the annual pace rose back to the 4.5% level from August's dip to 4.2%. It was the 8th straight month that the monthly rate increased. Inflation climbed due to the falling Australian dollar and comes despite the slowing economy and softer commodity prices. The central bank has already set about cutting interest rates, in the hope that inflation was contained and would slow as demand slowed. However, policy makers are faced with a real dilemma in whether to continue to try and shore up the economy, or to refocus their efforts on limiting the growth of prices. The AUS/USD gained following the release, but those gains were pared down in the NY session. |
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Table of Past Data
| 1/13 | 2/3 | 3/2 | 3/30 | 5/4 | 6/1 | 6/29 | 7/31 | 8/31 | 10/2 | ||
| Actual | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
TDMI Inflation Gauge
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For August
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.6% (Jul), pr. 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May),
TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose 0.1% in August and was up 4.2% over the year. That's the 3rd month were the pace of growth decelerated. It had been 4.8% in June, then 4.6% in July. Prices this month were pushed up by fruits and vegetables, insurance, gas and other household fuels. Cheaper gasoline actually offset some of those gains. If gasoline prices were excluded, inflation on the month would have risen a 0.6% on the month. The Reserve Bank of Australia, and its Governor Stevens has a target of inflation between 2-3%, but inflation has been above 4% since March. Still, the RBA must be heartened by the deceleration of the annual rate, though some core price pressures were masked by a fall in gasoline prices. Expectations are for a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate it completes its meeting tomorrow (Tues. at 12:30 AM EST). That should be the start of a cutting campaign that can bring rates down around 1 percentage point in the next 12 months. Stevens hopes that as the economy eases, inflation will as well. The Aussie slid overnight vs. the Dollar and Yen. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A | |||
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For July
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.6%, pr. 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May), 4.3% (Apr), pr. 4.0% (Mar) The TD Securities and Melbourne Institute gauge of inflation cooled in July. The annual pace slowed to 4.6% from 4.8% in June, while the monthly rate cooled to 0.4% from 0.5% in June. That will be a welcome sign for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is betting that a moderation in growth will ease price pressures. At this rate though, the bank does not want a moderation in growth to turn into a major slowdown and may soon consider cutting rates. Recent data, like retail sales yesterday, are pointing to weaker consumers spending and a buckling housing market. Inflation has a good chance of slowing down if the recent drop in oil prices, a 15% drop since hitting a record high $145.29 a barrel on July 3rd, continues. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For June
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.8%, pr. 4.5% (May), 4.3% (Apr), pr. 4.0% (Mar) Inflation in Australia heated up in June increasing 0.5% for the month and 4.8% on the year. It presents a fresh worry to the Reserve Bank of Australia which decides on rates this week. The annual increase of 4.8% is the largest increase in the index, which goes back 5 and a half years. The old record was last month's 4.5%. Higher fuel (up 25% on the year) and rental costs (up 12% on the year) are mostly to blame though they were offset by falls in the prices of vegetables and electronic goods. The central bank raised rates 4 times in late 2007 and early 2008 in order to combat inflation, at a time when market turmoil and weaker growth caused other economies to cut their rates. With high interest rates the Aussie economy may face a period of cooling helping to slow inflation, but for that fuel and energy prices have to also moderate from their rapid pace of increases. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.5% | N/A | |||
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For May
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.5%, pr. 4.3% (Apr), pr. 4.0% (Mar) Annual inflation rose at its swiftest pace on record during May, the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute showed. Headline inflation climbed 4.5% in the year to May, after increasing 0.3% last month. The survey began in 2002. Its the fourth month that annual inflation has been above 4%. Just in May and June of 2007 prices were at a recent low of 2.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, but may be unlikely to raise rates despite the higher inflation data. Policy members will try and gauge how well previous rate increases have been absorbed by the economy and if economic activity is slowing enough to limit inflation in the medium term. The data is worrisome, and was led by higher prices for rent (up 15% on the year), fuel (up 13% on the year) and financial services. These were partially offset by falls in the prices of fruit and holiday travel and accommodation. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For April
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.3%, pr. 4.0% The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 0.5% in April, boosting underlying inflation to 4.3% in annual terms. Its an increase from the figures in March, and is well above the Reserve Bank's comfort level. Inflation continues to rise despite indications that the Australian economy is starting to cool. Inflation was led by higher health costs, rents and petrol prices. These higher costs are filtering throughout the economy and are starting to impact other goods and services. If the economy slows down, then inflation may cool as well, though a lot of the price increases have come as a result of global factors such as higher food and oil prices.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.9%, pr 1.0% (4Q), 0.9% (3Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For March
Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.0%, pr. 4.0% From Bloomberg: "An index measuring Australian inflation held at the fastest annual pace in almost two years in March, reinforcing the central bank's decision to increase borrowing costs to the highest in 12 years. AUD/USD Sinks in European Trading: The AUD/USD saw some bounce after the release, climbing from the 0.9150 area to hit a session high at .9180. However, from here, the European session saw greenback buying at the expense of the Aussie, and the pair continued a downtrend started last Friday. The weekend brought a wave of risk aversion as foreign markets removed their money from the US. The outflow hurt other "carry trade" pairs which rely calm markets and low volatility in forex markets. The Aussie has been caught up in the bearish investor sentiment that has come over the weekend as its local stock market fell. In New Zealand, lower business confidence data pressured the Aussie's neighbor.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For February Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.0%, pr. 3.9% Inflation in Australia continued to show elevated readings. The TDMI Inflation gauge was up 4% on the year, and has been a worry of late for the Australian central bank, which meets on Monday to decide on interest rates. The policy members have already signaled that they will use this month's meeting to raise rates a further 25 basis points in order to combat inflationary pressures. The Aussie has been gaining the past two weeks, especially against the US Dollar, on anticipation of the move. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | N/A | |||
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For January Inflation Gauge y/y: 3.9%, pr. 3.7% (Dec) Though the monthly rate for inflation slowed in January to 0.3% compared to December's 0.6%, the year-on-year change increased to 3.9%, adn teh report paints a picture of continued high inflation. This month's changed came about as prices rose for utilities, financial services, automotive fuel and education. For the year, rental accomodations have The Reserve Bank of Australia will post their decision tonight, in which they are expected to raise interest rates to combat inflationary pressures. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 1.9% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For December. TDMI Inflation Gauge: 3.7%, pr. 3.4% (Nov). Inflation in Australia, as measured by the TD Securities Melbourne Institute, showed an increase of 0.6% for the month, and 3.7% year-over-year. The monthly rate doubled October's rate and increase the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise rates to slow it. Compared to the some of the other economies, like the US and the UK, Australia has had a better time avoiding some of the slowdown brought about by the "credit crunch." The AUD/USD rose following the release. Higher inflation will put more pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates, which would further widen the spread between the Australian and American rates. 
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter. CPI y/y: 1.9%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 2.1%. RBA Trimmed Mean q/q: 0.9%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Trimmed Mean y/y: 2.9%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 2.7% RBA Weighted Mean q/q: 1.0%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 0.9% RBA Weighted Mean y/y: 3.1%, forecase 2.8%, pr. 2.9% Australia core inflation jumped this past quarter, and may alarm the central bank to move on interest rates one more time this year. The Central Bank's Weighted Mean came in at 1%, which is biggest increase since 1991. This is used as the "core" measure since the largest price gains and declines are excluded from the measure. The release caused a jump in the Aussie, which set a 7 session high before retreating. 
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| +1.2% | +1.0% | +0.1% | N/A | ||
| Notable increases were in prices of automotive fuel (+9.1%), hospital and medical services(+3.4%), fruit(+8.4%), vegetables (+6.1%). Prices for Holiday travel and accommodation as well as computing equipments slightly offset these increases. For the year-over-year to the June 2007 quarter, ABS observed a 2.1% overall consumer price increase. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
| Pharmaceuticals, house purchase, secondary education fees, and rents lead the increase while, fruits, furniture, overseas holiday travel and accommodation, and audio/visual and computing equipments lead the decrease. For y/y the CPI is 2.4% | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.90% | N/A | ||
| Australia’s underlying inflation rate slowed more than expected in Q4 and consumer prices fell for the first time in 8 years. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.90% | 0.70% | 1.60% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.60% | 1.10% | 0.90% | N/A | ||
| The Australian Bureau released the consumer price index (CPI) for the three months to June, which increased by 1.6% compared to previous quarter. The Index also stood up by 4% on an y/y basis. The final figures were slightly above expectations and the core CPI for the June quarter, excluding volatile items, rose 0.6% from Q1 and was up 2.4% y/y. The upward inflationary trend is well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target range and may leave the RBA with no alternative but to hike its official cash rate. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.50% | N/A |