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Main Indicator: Consumer Price Index m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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For September
Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul),
0.3% (Jun),
US consumer prices were flat in September on a monthly basis, with core prices, which exclude food and energy, increases a smaller than expected 0.1%. Unrounded these figures were -0.031 and 0.141%, respectively. In annual terms prices decreased for a third month, cooling to 4.8% - in July prices were at a 17-year high of 5.6%. Annual core prices remained at 2.5% for the third straight month. The figures show easing price pressures, as a result of a continuing decline in oil prices decline and a slowing economy. Producer and import prices were down in September and oil prices fell below $75, so the Fed should expect inflation to continue to ease. That give the FOMC more room to cut rates in order to lower borrowing costs and help stimulate growth in the economy. They next meet on October 28-29. |
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Table of Past Data
| 8/15 | 9/19 | 10/17 | 11/15 | 12/14 | 1/16 | 2/20 | 3/14 | 4/16 | 10/16 | ||
| Actual | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: CPI excl. Food and Energy
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | N/A |
Table of Past Data
| 2/20 | 4/16 | 5/14 | 6/13 | 7/16 | 8/14 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/19 | 12/16 | ||
| Actual | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
CPI excl. Food and Energy
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | N/A | ||
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For March
CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.0% (Feb)
Unrounded, consumer prices increased 0.343%, with core increasing 0.152%. The data was in line with expectations. Energy prices jumped 1.9% from February, and are up 17% from a year ago. Gas increased 1.3%, and electricity rose 0.8%. Food was up 0.2% on the month and 4.5% on the year. Core annual inflation notched up to 2.4%, continuing to be above the Fed's presumed target rate of 1.5% to 2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For February
(s.a.)
CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.0%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.3%
Inflation cooled in February, coming in lower than economists expectations for the month, yearly and core values. This is a welcome sign to the Federal Open Monetary Committee, as it has abandoned trying to keep inflation in check using monetary policy and has solely focused on boosting growth with their rate slashing campaign. Core prices, those that exclude food and energy, saw no change, the first time that has happened since since November 2006. Prices for energy fell 0.5% in February, and were a factor in bringing down that month's inflation. However with oil jumping to $111 a barrel this week, energy inflation is due to rebound, and may show itself in next months figures. The Fed is looking at a difficult situation in the financial markets and a slumping economy teetering on recession. It is expected to cut rates next week by 75 basis points, to 2.25% from 3%, in order to continue stimulating the economy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For January
(s.a.)
CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2%
Consumer Prices rose 0.4% for the month of January and 4.3% in annual terms. The results were higher than the consensus forecast, and show that as the Federal Reserve has cut rates, inflation has picked up. The "core" rate, which excluded Food and Energy, rose 0.3%. The uncomfortably high inflation may make the Fed more cautious about continuing to cut rates in order to stimulate growth. The Fed's interest rate cuts, which have added up to 2.25 percentage points since September, have come during a time of rising commodity and oil prices, and while the Dollar has been falling. Those factors are now being evident in consumer price increases.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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For December Official Release from the Department of Labor CPI Ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.3%. CPI y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.1%, pr. 4.3% CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.3% Prices to consumers increased 0.3% in December, cooling from November's 0.8%. Energy attributed one-third of the overall CPI increase in December. Prices excluding energy fell to 0.2% from November's 0.3%. Signals of a slowdown means that price pressures may be contained as consumer and businesses spend less. Inflation has taken a backseat to growth in terms of the priority at the Fed. The annual inflation rate for December was 4.1%, slower than November's 4.3%, with core annual inflation increasing to 2.4% from 2.3%. For all of 2007, "overall energy costs rose 17.4% with the index for petroleum-based energy costs (energy commodities) up 29.4%. The food index, which rose 2.1% in all of 2006, advanced 4.9% in 2007, its largest increase since a 5.3% rise in 1990." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For November. CPI y/y: forecast 4.1%, pr. 3.5% Release from Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Energy prices soared in November by 5.7% and pushed overall inflation to the fastest pace in nearly 2 years. See more comments in Core CPI. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For October. Labor Department CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m: 0.2% (Oct), 0.2%, pr. 0.2% (Sept). CPI y/y: 3.5% (Oct), forecast 3.5%, pr. 2.8% (Sept) CPI Ex Food & Energy: 2.2% (Oct), 2.2%, 2.1% (Sept) Consumer prices in the US rose by the same amount as in September, as was expected. Core prices also met expectations at 0.2%. For the year, the 3.5% rise is the largest since August of 2006. Core prices were up .1 point to 2.2%, which is the first rise since January. Energy costs (+1.4%), such as gasoline (+1.4%), electricity (+1.5%) and heating-oil, have been climbing, adding to inflationary pressures. Food prices increased 0.3%, lower than in September. Rent increases also slowed, while medical care costs jumped 0.6%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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For September. CPI y/y: 2.8%, pr. 2.0%. Inflation for consumers climbed in September by 0.3% (0.267% without rounding). Energy costs rose by 0.3% from a decline in August (-3.2%). Food prices were up 0.5%. Housing costs rose 0.3% after showing flat inflation in August. The core CPI stayed in line with August's number. Core inflation is the value that the Fed watches more closely as it takes away the inherent volatility found in food and energy. Therefore, the headline number may not be indicative of inflation pressures. The same can be said of the year-over-year number (+2.8%) because if you take away volatile items, its increase was 2.1% or the same as August's y/y number. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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CPI for August came in at -0.1%, showing a negative measure for the first time since October of last year. Inflation to consumers has come down from .7% in May (.7% in May, .2% in June, .1% in July, -.1% in August). Year-over-year CPI rose 2% in August. In July CPI y/y was 2.4%. Slowing growth and a deep housing recession kept companies from increasing prices. This news, combined with Tuesday’s PPI (-1.4% m/m headline), will be a sign of relief for the Federal Reserve, as it moved to cut rates in a bid to salvage economic growth, overriding their concern of inflationary pressures. Today’s report also showed that energy prices fell 3.2%, the biggest decline since October (energy prices fell 1% in July). Gasoline prices fell 4.9%. Food prices, which account for 1/5th of CPI rose 0.4% (0.3% in July). Housing costs (2/5th of CPI) rose 0.2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
| On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), the CPI-U (CPI for all urban consumers), rose 4.5%, compared to 2.6% in all of 2006. A notable gain in the index for energy (21.3% SAAR) contributed to the overall rise. On the month, energy prices declined 1.0% in July. The food index, also a volatile one, rose 0.3% in July. | |||||