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Indicator Digest

Current Account
The current account is the widest measure of a country's financial performance on an international basis because it includes investment flows as well as trade in goods and services.

Main Indicator: Current Account

Most Recent Release

February
26th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-9.8B -8.9B -13.1B N/A

Balance of Payments for 4th Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The current account deficit on transactions with the rest of the world narrowed to $9.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 (on a seasonally adjusted basis), largely reflecting an energy-led increase in exports of goods. The current account has been in deficit for the last five quarters, following almost 10 years of surpluses."

Table of Past Data

11/292/295/298/2811/282/275/298/2811/272/26
Actual1.0B-0.5B5.6B6.8B5.6B-7.5B-9.1B-11.2B-13.1B-9.8B
Forecast3.5B0.0B2.8B8.0B5.1B-6.0B-10.5B-11.2B-13.4-8.9B
Previous6.3B1.3B0.8B4.5B8.2B3.6B-7.8B-9.1B-11.9B-13.1B
Revised From8.4B1.0B-0.5B5.6B6.8B5.6B-7.5BN/A-11.2BN/A

Past Releases

November
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-13.1B -13.4 -11.9B -11.2B
August
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-11.2B -11.2B -9.1B N/A
Balance of Payments for 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Previous Release: Press Release
May
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-9.1B -10.5B -7.8B -7.5B

Balance of Payments for 1st Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The balance on current account transactions with the rest of the world (on a seasonally adjusted basis) was a $9.1 billion deficit in the first quarter of 2009, larger than the $7.8 billion deficit in the previous quarter. This quarter current account deficit was led by a further decline of the goods surplus to $0.8 billion, which was partially offset by a lower deficit on investment income.

In the capital and financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), cross-border portfolio investment flows rebounded following the turmoil of the fourth quarter, adding significantly to large net inflows of funds to Canada in the first quarter. This mainly reflected non-resident investors adding to their portfolios with significant acquisitions of Canadian government debt instruments; Canadians had a slower pace of cross border investments but did return to foreign stock markets."

February
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -6.0B 3.6B 5.6B

Balance of Payments for 4th Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The current account balance with the rest of the world (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) was a deficit of $7.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, the first since the second quarter of 1999. The swing to deficit in the quarter was driven by a lower surplus for trade in goods. This primarily reflected the continued weakening of export volumes compounded by substantial declines in export commodity prices in the fourth quarter, especially pronounced for most energy products. Deterioration in the investment income deficit was also a contributing factor."

November
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.6B 5.1B 8.2B 6.8B

Balance of Payments for 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The current account surplus with the rest of the world (on a seasonally adjusted basis) dropped to $5.6 billion in the third quarter of 2008, down from $8.2 billion in the previous quarter. The reduction was largely as a result of a lower goods surplus, as commodity price gains slowed; and, a higher investment income deficit, as Canadian earnings on foreign direct investment were down.

In the capital and financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), cross-border direct investment flows strengthened, with notably large Canadian direct investment abroad and a resumption of foreign acquisition of Canadian companies. In contrast, with deteriorating conditions on equity and credit markets, Canadian investors' demand for foreign securities slowed while non-resident investors reduced their holdings of Canadian stocks and bonds."

August
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.8B 8.0B 4.5B 5.6B

Balance of Payments for 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

The current account in Canada widened to C$6.8 billion as higher prices for the country's commodities helped boost exports. "Once again, accelerating energy prices were the main factor behind the strength in the value of sales of goods to other countries. Despite a marginal decline in volumes, export values for crude petroleum were up $3.0 billion on strong price gains (+25%)." Still, the 1st quarter's figure was revised down and forecasts had the second figure coming in at C$8 billion.

From the Release: "The current account surplus with the rest of the world (on a seasonally adjusted basis) expanded further to $6.8 billion in the second quarter of 2008, led by exports of goods. These gains were mainly attributable to higher prices for several exported commodities, which pushed the goods surplus to $16.4 billion. Transactions in services and investment income had a dampening effect on the increase in the current account balance in the second quarter.

Net transactions in the capital and financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation) were more subdued than in several previous quarters, with outflows of funds exceeding inflows. There was strong foreign demand for Canadian securities, in particular bonds, while foreign direct investment into Canada slowed significantly. For their part, Canadian investors continued to shy away from foreign debt instruments in favour of equity, while Canadian direct investment and other investment flows moderated."

The Canadian Dollar held its ground near 1.0450 during NY trading as the US releases a positive GDP report.

May
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.6B 2.8B 0.8B -0.5B

Balance of Payments for 1st Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

The Canadian Dollar got a boost following the better than expected release. The USD/CAD pair wiped away the gains the greenback has accumulated during the week and made the pair test support at 0.9820.

From the Release: "The current account surplus with the rest of the world (on a seasonally adjusted basis) increased sharply to $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2008, led by higher prices for several exported commodities combined with a lower travel deficit. The deficits on commercial services and investment income were largely unchanged.

In the capital and financial account (not seasonally adjusted), foreign direct investment flows into Canada slowed significantly from the acquisitions-driven pace of the previous quarter, while Canadian direct investment abroad continued to strengthen. Canadian portfolio investors focused on foreign equities, while their non-resident counterparts' investment flows were dominated by federal bonds.

The goods surplus widened to $13.4 billion during the first quarter, up strongly from the previous two quarters. Much of the increase came from gains on the export side that were again dominated by the growth in the value of exports of energy products."

February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5B 0.0B 1.3B 1.0B

Balance of Payments for 4th Quarter
Provided by: Statistics Canada

"For the first time since the second quarter of 1999, the current account balance with the rest of the world was in deficit. The balance deteriorated $1.8 billion from the previous quarter to negative $513 million in the fourth quarter (on a seasonally adjusted basis). A lower goods surplus, and record travel deficit, contributed significantly to the emergence of this small deficit."

"For 2007 as a whole, the current account surplus narrowed to $14.2 billion, down sharply from the 2006 surplus of $23.6 billion. This narrowing surplus occurred against the backdrop of a Canadian dollar that made strong gains against major foreign currencies in 2007, particularly the American dollar and the British pound. This generally made Canada's exports more expensive and its imports cheaper, with consequence for the current account balance."

November
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0B 3.5B 6.3B 8.4B
Balance of Payments for 3rd Quarter.

The current account surplus for the 3rd quarter shrank dramatically, as the previous was largely revised down as well. The 1.0B surplus is the lowest since 2nd quarter of 2003.

The large drop in goods surplus(-5.3billion) sent it to CAD$11.1 billion, the lowest since 2nd quarter of 1999. Exports of energy fell due to drop in price of natural gas, although volume partially offset the drop in value. Other energy products had lower volume and some commodity prices fell.

Imports resumed an upward trend, adding to the deterioration of the surplus. The stronger Canadian dollar has made imports more attractive to Canada while exports less so to the world.