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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -17.5B | -17.3B | -16.2B | N/A | ||
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4th Quarter
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| 3/3 | 6/2 | 8/31 | 12/1 | 3/2 | 6/1 | 8/31 | 12/7 | 2/7 | 2/28 | ||
| Actual | -19.4B | -19.5B | -12.8B | -9.7B | -6.5B | -4.6B | -13.3B | -16.2B | 1.1T | -17.5B | |
| Forecast | -18.0B | -20.5B | -11.8B | -11.2B | -7.4B | -5.4B | -10.3B | -16.7B | 1.25T | -17.3B | |
| Previous | -16.4B | -18.7B | -19.8B | -14.0B | -9.5B | -6.5B | -6.3B | -13.1B | 1.30T | -16.2B | |
| Revised From | -15.6B | -19.4B | -19.5B | -12.8B | -9.7B | N/A | -4.6B | -13.3B | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1T | 1.25T | 1.30T | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -16.2B | -16.7B | -13.1B | -13.3B | ||
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3rd Quarter
Australia's current account deficit widened in the 3rd quarter to A$16.18 billion ($14.8 billion) a figure that was weaker than the 2nd quarter, but came in slightly better than expectations. The reason for the deterioration in the current account was a drop in exports and an increase in imports. Commodities traded lower during the 3rd quarter, a factor in the decline in exports. The current account is the broadest measure of trade as it includes investment flows as well as goods and services shipments. A deficit represents money Australia has to borrow overseas to pay for its imports of goods and services. Australia's economy skirted the recession during the first half of the year on good demand for its natural resources from China and a surge in domestic spending as a result of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts by the government. The National Australia Bank (NAB) forecast that third quarter GDP will grow 0.9%, and that the economy will expand 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The NAB, which puts out a survey of business confidence, saw that index surge in November to the highest level in seven years. Australia's central bank, under Governor Glenn Stevens, began raising rates in the fourth quarter, with increases of a quarter-point in three straight meetings. That has brought the benchmark rate up from 3% to 3.75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is the first central bank of the G-7 nations to raise rates, a move that should favor the Aussie in interest rate differentials. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -13.3B | -10.3B | -6.3B | -4.6B | ||
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2nd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -4.6B | -5.4B | -6.5B | N/A | ||
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1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -6.5B | -7.4B | -9.5B | -9.7B | ||
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4th Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -9.7B | -11.2B | -14.0B | -12.8B | ||
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3rd Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -12.8B | -11.8B | -19.8B | -19.5B | ||
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2nd Quarter
Australia's current account deficit shrank considerably in the 2nd quarter, falling from a downwardly revised A$-19.8B in the 1st quarter to A$-12.8B in the 2nd quarter. That figure disappointed forecasts, but it does bring the current account to its lowest level since the 4th quarter of 2006. Exports of minerals helped boost the trade deficit, as demand from China for coal and iron ore helped boost export income. The RBA has mentioned before how trade should continue to help support the economy due to increased demand and rising commodity prices. Domestically, consumers are facing tougher economic condition due to higher prices and high interest rates, so they are cutting back on imports and also domestic retail. A cut back in imports should serve to further help the trade balance and the current account in the 3rd quarter. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -19.5B | -20.5B | -18.7B | -19.4B | ||
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1st Quarter
Australia's current account deficit widened in the 1st quarter as imports outpaced exports. The number was better than anticipated and also the 4th quarter numbers were revised to show a smaller deficit. Exports were sluggish as the value of the Australian Dollar rose and their were difficulties in transporting some orders. Businesses and consumers, despite high interest rates were still shopping abroad.
On May 5th, trade balance data for March showed an improvement as exports increased as a rsuly of larger shipments of iron ore, coal and wheat. Prices for those first two commodities have been steadily increasing and should provide a better balance in the trade of goods as 2008 continues. Domestic spending is likely to cool as well meaning imports may see a reduction. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -19.4B | -18.0B | -16.4B | -15.6B | ||
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4th Quarter
Austrlia's current account deficit widened to a record A$19.35 billion in the fourth quarter. This news combines with lower than expected retail sales data and another interest rate increase from the central bank. It will be important to note if Australia will finally show signs of slowing down, as have most of the other developed nations around the world. |
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