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Main Indicator: Import Price Index
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.0% | -2.5% | -2.6% | -3.7% | ||
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For September
Import Prices y/y: 14.5%, pr. 16.0% (Jul), 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
US import prices tumbled at their fastest pace in nearly 5 years in September. The 3% fall follows a downwardly revised 2.6% drop in August. Last month's decline was the largest since April 2003. Import prices precede producer and consumer price reports, and expectations are that inflation is set to cool, giving the Federal Reserve scope to lower rates. On the year prices were still up 14.5% as a result of sharp increases earlier in the year. Petroleum prices fell 9% last month, the biggest drop in two years. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.9% and were up 6.5% on the year. The recent appreciation of the US Dollar made prices for goods from the EU fall by 1.3%, and 4.9% from Canada. |
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Table of Past Data
| 1/11 | 2/15 | 3/13 | 4/11 | 5/13 | 6/12 | 7/11 | 8/13 | 9/11 | 10/10 | ||
| Actual | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | -3.7% | -3.0% | |
| Forecast | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | -1.6% | -2.5% | |
| Previous | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | -2.6% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 1.7% | N/A | N/A | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | 1.7% | -3.7% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.7% | -1.6% | 0.2% | 1.7% | ||
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For August
Import Prices y/y: 16.0%, pr 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
Import and export prices fell in August, which should help cool inflation, at least from this part of the economy. The 3.7% decline in import prices was led by a sharp drop in oil prices this month (-12.8%).
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.6% | N/A | ||
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For July
Import Prices y/y: 21.6%, pr 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | N/A | ||
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For June
Import Prices y/y: 20.5%, pr 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
From the Release: "June import prices rose 2.6 percent and were up 11.7 percent between February and June. Import prices advanced 20.5 percent over the past year, which was the largest year-over-year rise since the index was first published in September 1982. Higher petroleum prices continued to be the major contributor to the advance in overall import prices, increasing 7.4 percent in June after rising 8.9 percent, 7.9 percent, and 10.1 percent respectively, in the prior three months. Petroleum prices rose 78.6 percent for the year ended in June, the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 82.5 percent between February 2002 and February 2003." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | ||
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For May
Import Prices y/y: 17.8%, forecast 17.2%, pr 16.3 (rev from 15.4%)
Import prices in the US were up 2.3% in May, slightly lower than the upwardly revised 2.4% in March. For the year import prices were up 17.8%, the largest measure on record. Though the figures bode poorly for the economy as it pushes up inflation and cuts into the purchasing power of consumers and firms, higher inflation will make the Federal Open Market Committee more hawkish in their attempts to battle inflation, and can lead to higher interest rates.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | N/A | ||
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For April
Import Prices y/y: 15.4%, forecast 15.0%, pr 14.8% (Mar), 13.6% (Feb)
Compared to April 2007, import prices increased 15.4% last month. Its the largest annual rise since data was first published in September of 1982. Petroleum led the charge, rising 57.2% on the year. On the month import prices wre up 1.8% compared with March's 2.9% increase. Even excluding oil, import prices climbed rather steeply suggesting the weak Dollar is making imports such as automobiles and capital goods more expensive. Higher prices for overseas products will work as an inflation risk to the US economy if these sorts of numbers persist. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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For March
Import Prices y/y: 14.8%, forecast 13.6%, pr. 13.6%
Import prices surges in March as petroleum prices increased 9.1% last month. On the year, the price of imported petroleum is up 60%. Import prices overall were up 2.8% this month, higher than expectations and coming after relatively flat growth in February. Export prices rose 1.5%, the largest one-month increase since records began being kept in December of 1988 |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | ||
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For February
IPI y/y: 13.6%; pr. 13.7%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | N/A | ||
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For January
IPI y/y: 13.7%, forecast 12.8%, pr. 11.4% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | N/A | ||
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For December
Import Price Index y/y: 10.9%, forecast 10.5%, pr 11.4%. Release from <"http://www.bls.gov/mxp/home.htm#overview" target="blank"> U.S. Department of Labor Prior to December, rise in prices for petroleum imports have been pushing up overall import prices. December saw an easing of that. However, year over year, petro import prices rose 50.1% pushing the overall import prices to their largest calendar-year advance since the index was first published in September 1982. Export prices rose in December on the back of a 2.7% increase in prices for agricultural goods. |
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