Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Import Prices

Main Indicator: Raw Materials Price Index

Most Recent Release

August
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.4%

0.2%

4.4%

N/A

For July
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Current Release: (HTML)

RMPI y/y 28.9%, pr. 32.1%

The surging cost of raw materials cooled a bit in July, registering a 1.4% growth, down from June's 4.4%. The deceleration reflected that of mineral fuels costs, which edged down to a pace of 2.2%, the lowest advance in five months. On the year, mineral fuels and vegetable products have been leading the gains, while non-ferrous metals have been slowing the advance.

July and August have seen prices stabilize and peak worldwide. With inflation mitigating as many central banks have expected, looser monetary policies will be implemented. Though the RPMI did ease its pace but not by as much as economists had forecasted, at 0.2%.

The Industrial Product Price Index, which measures prices charged by manufactueres rose 0.4%. This is a drastic decline from the growth average rate of 1.5% between March and June. The decelerated July increase was entirely due to a slight 2.4% rise in petro and coal products, which is the slowest pace in five months.

Table of Past Data

	11/29	1/4	2/1	2/29	4/1	4/30	5/30	6/27	7/30	8/29

Actual	0.3%	3.4%	0.2%	3.4%	0.5%	6.6%	5.1%	3.1%	4.4%	1.4%
Forecast	0.4%	1.0%	0.8%	0.7%	2.6%	1.9%	2.8%	5.1%	3.0%	0.2%
Previous	-0.8%	0.7%	3.4%	0.4%	3.4%	0.5%	6.7%	5.1%	3.1%	4.4%
Revised From	-0.9%	0.3%	N/A	0.2%	N/A	N/A	6.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

July
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

4.4%

3.0%

3.1%

N/A

June
27th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.1%

5.1%

N/A

May
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

5.1%

2.8%

6.7%

6.6%

Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for April
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

PPI m/m: 1.4%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.8%

From the Release: "The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) continued its upward trend with a month-over-month increase of 5.1% in April, after registering a 6.7% rise in March. The RMPI reached a new historical peak, up 22.5% from its last low point in September 2007. The increase of the RMPI in April was mainly driven by strong prices for mineral fuels, which rose significantly for a second consecutive month. If mineral fuels were excluded, the RMPI would have fallen 1.2% and would have registered its first decline after four consecutive monthly increases.

Compared with April 2007, raw materials cost plants 23.0% more. The rise in the index was primarily driven by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

April
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

6.6%

1.9%

0.5%

N/A

Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for March
Provided by: Statistics Canada

IPPI
Canadian producer inflation index accelerated to 1.7%, fueled by surges in prices for petroleum and coal products, as well as for primary metal products (5.9%) . Excluding energy products, the IPPI would have marked 0.8%.

RMPI Raw materials surged 6.6% in March, the highest monthly increases since September of 1990. Mineral fuels were the main contributor to inflation of raw materials.

The inflation reports' impact overwhelmed that of the poor GDP report. This is becoming a deja vu of economic developments as central banks across the world are dealing with the duality of economic growth risk, and inflationary risk.

April
1st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.5%

2.6%

3.4%

N/A

February
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.4%

0.7%

0.4%

0.2%

For January
Provided by: Statistics Canada

IPPI m/m: 0.9%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 1.1%

"The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) jumped 3.4% from December to January, a much higher rate of increase than the 0.4% gain recorded in December. In January, the RMPI was pushed up primarily by the rise in prices for mineral fuels and, to a lesser extent, vegetable products and non-ferrous metals.

Compared with January 2007, raw materials cost plants 17.3% more. The increase in the index was driven primarily by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

The Canadian Dollar gained following the release, stalling a greenback rally. The surge in raw materials can add to inflationarry pressure and would make the Bank of Canada more inclined to hold rates steady. Consumer prices have been falling, especially core, so we'll have to see if the higher prices for materials gets passed through to consumers.

February
1st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.8%

3.4%

N/A

For December
Official Release from Statistics Canada

"The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 0.2% from November to December, a much lower rate of increase than the 3.4% gain recorded in November. In December, the increase in prices for vegetable products and animals and animal products was tempered by a steep decline in prices for non-ferrous metals, while prices for mineral fuels remained unchanged.

Compared with December 2006, raw materials cost plants 10.0% more. The increase in the index was driven primarily by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

January
4th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.4%

1.0%

0.7%

0.3%

For November.

Official Release from Statistics Canada

The Raw Materials Price Index jumped 3.4%, as prices for mineral fuels rose 9.7%, owing mainly to a 10.7% jump for crude oil. Compared to November 2006, raw materials cost plants 15.7% more, also mainly on the back of higher prices for mineral fuels.

November
29th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.3%

0.4%

-0.8%

-0.9%