Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Import Prices

Main Indicator: Import Prices q/q

Most Recent Release

July
17th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.4%

2.1%

2.7%

N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Import Prices y/y: 3.5%, pr. 2.2%, -2.2%
Export Prices q/q: 13.5%, forecast 10.0%, pr. 3.5%, -0.6%
Export Prices y/y: 13.3%, pr. 0.1%, -3.2%

From the Release: "

The Import Price Index increased by 1.4% in the June quarter 2008. The increase was mainly driven by rises in prices paid for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+15.9%), fertilisers (excluding crude) (+50.9%) and crude fertilisers and minerals (+112.7%). These rises were partly offset by falls in prices paid for office machines and automatic data processing machines (-7.3%) and gold, non-monetary (-7.1%). Through the year to June quarter 2008, the Import Price Index increased by 3.5%.

The Export Price Index increased by 13.5% in the June quarter 2008. This is the largest quarterly increase since the current index began in September quarter 1974. The increase was mainly driven by rises in prices paid for coal, coke and briquettes (+54.2%), metalliferous ores and metal scrap (+27.0%) and petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+18.3%). These increases were partly offset by falls in prices received for gold, non-monetary (-7.0%) and textile fibres and their wastes (-4.9%). Through the year to June quarter 2008, the Export Price Index increased by 13.3%."

Table of Past Data

	10/20	4/20	7/20	1/18	4/19	7/19	10/18	1/17	4/17	7/17

Actual	2.60%	1.80%	2.30%	-3.20%	-1.70%	+0.1%	-0.8%	0.2%	2.7%	1.4%
Forecast	1.50%	0.10%	1.50%	-0.50%	-0.80%		-1.0%		0.5%	2.1%
Previous	1.70%	0.40%	1.30%	-0.30%	-3.20%	-1.7%	0.1%	-0.8%	0.2%	2.7%
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

April
17th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.7%

0.5%

0.2%

N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Import Prices y/y: 2.2%, pr. -2.2%
Export Prices q/q 3.5%, forecast 3.0%, pr. -0.6% Export Prices y/y 0.1%, pr. -3.2%

It is no surprise that prices were going to rise due to the ongoing surging global energy prices. Rising food prices, which had some beneficial effects for the Australia's agricultural sector, have now become the culprit of food riots across the world in regions such as Haiti and Egypt. However for Australia, part of the food price increase was due to flooding that caused supply shortgage. Global inflationary pressures will be at the forefront of international economic discussions.

AUD/JPY - Aussie Gains off Increase In Carry Trade Sentiment: The Aussie had been trending up vs the Yen and it wasn't until the late European session that its surged above resistance near 96.40. For the week, there has been a 450 pip rally by the Aussie after it had declined on Monday.

AUD/JPY

From the release:

The Import Price Index increased by 2.7% in the March quarter 2008, following a 0.2% increase in the December quarter 2007. The increase this quarter was mainly driven by rises in prices paid for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+11.0%) and gold, non-monetary (+15.9%). These rises were partly offset by falls in prices paid for machinery specialised for particular industries (-3.3%). Through the year to March quarter 2008, the Import Price Index increased by 2.2%.

January
17th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

-0.8%

N/A

For 4th Quarter

October
18th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.8%

-1.0%

0.1%

N/A

For 3rd Quarter

Telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment(-5.6%) gave the most contribution to the drop along with office machines and ADP machines. Partly offsetting the drops were increases in prices paid for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials(+2.7%) and iron and steel(+3.8%).
(y/y): -5.5%

The ABS also reported export prices in the same release, indicating a decrease of 3.0% in Q3, marking the first quarterly decrease since Q2 of 2005.
(y/y): -2.5%

July
19th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

+0.1%

-1.7%

N/A

Quarter-over-quarter Change

The increase was driven by price rises in petroleum and related products, medicinal products and inorganic chemicals, said the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Countering this effect was decreased cost of office and automatic data processing machines, telecommunications equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. On the year import prices declined (-5.1%).

April
19th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-1.70%

-0.80%

-3.20%

N/A

Import prices decreased mainly due to price decrease in petroleum and related products, telecommunication equipment and copper products. Appreciation of the Aussie Dollar also lowered import price. Offsetting the decrease was the increase in import prices of iron and steel products and fertilizers. There is a y/y in March decrease of 3.0%

January
18th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-3.20%

-0.50%

-0.30%

N/A

July
20th, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.30%

1.50%

1.30%

N/A

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) final producer price index (PPI) for commodities, excluding exports rose by 1.6% during Q2 ending June, with the domestic index rising by 1.8% and the imports component of the index rising by 0.7%. The ABS added that rise in the domestic index was mostly as a result of increases in gasoline refining, building construction and agriculture.

April
20th, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.80%

0.10%

0.40%

N/A

October
20th, 2005

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.60%

1.50%

1.70%

N/A