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Import Prices

Main Indicator: Import Price Index

Most Recent Release

November
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4.7% -4.3% -3.0% N/A

For October
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Official Release: HTML PDF

Import Prices y/y: 6.7%, pr. 14.5% (Aug), 16.0% (Jul), 20.5% (Jun)
Export Prices m/m: -1.9%, pr. 1.0% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul), pr. 1.5% (Jun)
Export Prices y/y: 4.2%, pr. 6.8% (Aug), 8.2% (Jul), 8.6% (Jun)

With petro prices sliding 18.8% in October, the import price index is fell 4.7%, the largest fall in import prices in nearly 20 years. The last 3 releases have seen 3 of the 4 largest declines in the index since first published in December 1988. The sharp declines reduced the elevated annual rate to 6.7% in October. It had been 20.5% only in June.

From the Release: "Import prices fell 4.7 percent in October after decreases of 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent in September and August, three of the four largest monthly declines for the index since being published monthly for the first time in December 1988. Despite falling 10.6 percent over the past three months, import prices increased 6.7 percent for the year ended in October. The three-month decline in import prices was largely driven by falling petroleum prices which plunged 16.7 percent in October after decreasing 10.2 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively, in September and August. The October drop in petroleum prices was the largest monthly decline since an 18.8 percent fall in April 2003 and the 32.4 percent decrease over the past three months is the largest quarterly decline since the three months ended in February 1991. For the October 2007-2008 period, however petroleum prices rose 13.1 percent."

Table of Past Data

2/153/134/115/136/127/118/139/1110/1011/14
Actual1.7%0.2%2.8%1.8%2.3%2.6%1.7%-3.7%-3.0%-4.7%
Forecast0.4%0.8%1.9%1.6%2.5%1.9%1.0%-1.6%-2.5% -4.3%
Previous0.0%1.6%0.2%2.8%2.4%2.3%2.6%0.2%-2.6%-3.0%
Revised FromN/A1.7%N/AN/A1.8%N/AN/A1.7%N/AN/A

Past Releases

October
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.0% -2.5% -2.6% N/A

For September
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 14.5%, pr. 16.0% (Jul), 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
Export Prices m/m: 1.0%, pr. -1.7% (Jul), pr. 1.5% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.5% (Apr)
Export Prices y/y: 6.8%, pr. 8.2% (Jul), 8.6% (Jun), 8.0% (May), 7.7% (Apr)

US import prices tumbled at their fastest pace in nearly 5 years in September. The 3% fall follows a downwardly revised 2.6% drop in August. Last month's decline was the largest since April 2003. Import prices precede producer and consumer price reports, and expectations are that inflation is set to cool, giving the Federal Reserve scope to lower rates. On the year prices were still up 14.5% as a result of sharp increases earlier in the year. Petroleum prices fell 9% last month, the biggest drop in two years. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.9% and were up 6.5% on the year. The recent appreciation of the US Dollar made prices for goods from the EU  fall by 1.3%, and 4.9% from Canada.

September
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.7% -1.6% 0.2% 1.7%

For August
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 16.0%, pr 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
Export Prices m/m: -1.7%, pr. 1.5% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.5% (Apr)
Export Prices y/y: 8.2%, pr. 8.6% (Jun), 8.0% (May), 7.7% (Apr)

Import and export prices fell in August, which should help cool inflation, at least from this part of the economy. The 3.7% decline in import prices was led by a sharp drop in oil prices this month (-12.8%). 

From the Release: "Import prices fell 3.7 percent in August, the first decrease since December 2007 and the largest one-month decline since the index was first published monthly in December 1988. Despite the drop, import prices rose 16.0 percent over the past year. The August decrease in import prices was led by a 12.8 percent decline in petroleum prices, the largest monthly drop since an 18.8 percent decline in April 2003. The August decline in petroleum prices followed a revised 1.0 percent decrease in July; however the index still rose 52.0 percent over the past 12 months."

August
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.7% 1.0% 2.6% N/A

For July
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 21.6%, pr 20.5% (Jun), 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
Export Prices m/m: 1.4%, pr. 1.0% (Jun), 0.4% (May), 0.5% (Apr)
Export Prices y/y: 10.2%, pr. 8.6% (Jun), 8.0% (May), 7.7% (Apr)

Import prices surged to the annual pace of 21.6%, the highest since records began in September 1982. It grew 1.7% on the month after jumping 2.6% in June. The question is whether this is a rate hike tucking at the shirts of FOMC members. They key is that this report did not include the slide in oil prices. Recent sentiments of reduced inflation expectations suggest July's ugly inflation numbers may be the worst of them.

Export prices have not grown as fast. The difference is due to the soft dollar, which has the mixed factor of being an upside risk to inflation, and positive contribution to GDP growth as it makes American exports more competitive.

July
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.6% 1.9% 2.3% N/A

For June
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 20.5%, pr 17.8% (May), 16.3% (Apr)
Export Prices m/m: 1.0%, pr. 0.4% (May), 0.5% (Apr)
Export Prices y/y: 8.6%, pr. 8.0% (May), 7.7% (Apr)

From the Release: "June import prices rose 2.6 percent and were up 11.7 percent between February and June. Import prices advanced 20.5 percent over the past year, which was the largest year-over-year rise since the index was first published in September 1982. Higher petroleum prices continued to be the major contributor to the advance in overall import prices, increasing 7.4 percent in June after rising 8.9 percent, 7.9 percent, and 10.1 percent respectively, in the prior three months. Petroleum prices rose 78.6 percent for the year ended in June, the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 82.5 percent between February 2002 and February 2003."

June
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8%

For May
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 17.8%, forecast 17.2%, pr 16.3 (rev from 15.4%)
Export Prices m/m: 0.3%, pr. 0.5% (rev from 0.3)
Export Prices y/y: 8.0%, pr. 7.7%

Import prices in the US were up 2.3% in May, slightly lower than the upwardly revised 2.4% in March. For the year import prices were up 17.8%, the largest measure on record. Though the figures bode poorly for the economy as it pushes up inflation and cuts into the purchasing power of consumers and firms, higher inflation will make the Federal Open Market Committee more hawkish in their attempts to battle inflation, and can lead to higher interest rates.  

From the Release: "May import prices rose 2.3 percent and were up 7.9 percent between February and May, the largest three-month jump for the index since October 1990. Import prices advanced 17.8 percent over the past year, which was the largest year-over-year rise since the index was first published in September 1982. Higher petroleum prices continued to be a major contributor to the advance in overall import prices, increasing 7.8 percent in May after rising 5.9 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively, in the prior two months. Petroleum prices rose 68.8 percent for the year ended in May, the largest 12-month advance since the index was up 82.5 percent between February 2002 and February 2003. Nonpetroleum prices also increased in May, although the 0.5 percent advance was modest compared to the 1.3 percent increase in April and the 1.2 percent rise in March. The index was up 6.6 percent over the past year."

May
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.8% 1.6% 2.8% N/A

For April
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 15.4%, forecast 15.0%, pr 14.8% (Mar), 13.6% (Feb)
Export Prices m/m: 0.3%, pr. 1.5% (Mar), 0.9% (Feb)
Export Prices y/y: 7.7%

Compared to April 2007, import prices increased 15.4% last month. Its the largest annual rise since data was first published in September of 1982. Petroleum led the charge, rising 57.2% on the year. On the month import prices wre up 1.8% compared with March's 2.9% increase. Even excluding oil, import prices climbed rather steeply suggesting the weak Dollar is making imports such as automobiles and capital goods more expensive. Higher prices for overseas products will work as an inflation risk to the US economy if these sorts of numbers persist.

April
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.8% 1.9% 0.2% N/A

For March
Provided by: US Department of Labor

Import Prices y/y: 14.8%, forecast 13.6%, pr. 13.6%
Export Prices m/m: 1.5%, pr. 0.9%

Import prices surges in March as petroleum prices increased 9.1% last month. On the year, the price of imported petroleum is up 60%. Import prices overall were up 2.8% this month, higher than expectations and coming after relatively flat growth in February. Export prices rose 1.5%, the largest one-month increase since records began being kept in December of 1988

March
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7%

For February
Release from US Department of Labor Import/Export Price Indexes

IPI y/y: 13.6%; pr. 13.7%
Export Prices m/m: 09%; pr.1.2%

Petroleum prices have been declining in recent months, but is up 60.9% on the year. Excluding petroleum, prices rose 0.6%, as industrial supplies rose sharply in prices. Food prices dropped 0.1%, after an annual increase of 11.0%. January's tame inflation is something the Fed would be looking for in it's interest rate slashing and money printing campaign.

February
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.7% 0.4% 0.0% N/A

For January
Release from US Department of Labor Import/Export Price Indexes

IPI y/y: 13.7%, forecast 12.8%, pr. 11.4%

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