Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Jobless Claims

Measures the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in a given time period. In the US, jobless claims are measured weekly, and the number of people applying for their first week of benefits is looked at more carefully as it can be an indication of an increase of firings. A larger number is bad for an economy as it implies more workers are losing their jobs, and are now looking for new work.

Main Indicator: Jobless Claims

Most Recent Release

November
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

542K

508K

515K

516K

For Week Ending November 15th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Nov 15): 506.5K, pr. 491K, pr. 477K, 477K, 480.2K, 483.5K
Continuing Claims (Nov 8): 4.01M, pr. 3,897M, pr. 3.84M, 3.71K, 3.72M, 3.72M

Weekly jobless claims took another large step backwards as claims rose to the highest level since 1992, as firms lay off more workers in the face f the deepening economic slump. Jobless claims rose 27K to a higher-than-forecast 542K while the total number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 4.012 million the highest that figure has been since December 1982. Layoffs are picking up in pace, and the economy has shed 1.2 million jobs this year. In the previous recession, jobless claims averaged 416K and rose to a high of 517K.

Next Release Date: November 26th 2008, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

	9/11	9/18	10/2	10/9	10/16	10/23	10/30	11/6	11/13	11/20

Actual	445K	455	497K	475K	461K	478K	479K	481K	516K	542K
Forecast	440K	440K	475K	475K	469K	470K	478K	480K	483K	508K
Previous	451K	445K	496K	497K	477K	461K	478K	485K	484K	515K
Revised From	444K	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	479K	481	516K

Past Releases

November
13th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

516K

483K

484K

481

For Week Ending November 8th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Nov 8): 491K, pr. 477K, 477K (r+), 480.2K, 483.5K, 482.5K, 474K
Continuing Claims (Nov 1): 3,897M, pr. 3.84M, 3.71K, 3.72M, 3.72M, 3.65M, 3.59M

Jobless claims in the week ending Nov. 8th rose 32,000 to 516,000, the highest level in 7 years. The 4-week moving average rose to 491,000, the highest level in 17 years, and continuing claims hit 3.89M, a 25-year high. Unemployment had been rising, and is now accelerating. With auto-makers not able to persuade Secretary of Treasury Paulson to extend rescue funds to the auto sector, more manufacturing jobs will be lost.

November
6th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

481K

480K

485K

479K

For Week Ending November 1st
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Nov 1): 477K:, pr. 477K (r+), 480.2K, 483.5K, 482.5K, 474K, 462K, 445K
Continuing Claims (Oct 25): 3.84M, pr. 3.71K, 3.72M, 3.72M, 3.65M, 3.59M, 3.542M

The number of unemployment claims fell by 4000 in the week ending November 1. The 4-week moving average that smooths out the data came in at 477K, matching last week's upwardly revised figures. Continuing claims edged up further to 3.84M. Despite the easing in the headline number this week, the employment situation continues to weaken and is at the top of the list of concerns for the coming administration and the Federal Reserve Bank.

October
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

479K

478K

N/A

For Week Ending October 25th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Oct 25): pr. 480.2K, 483.5K, 482.5K, 474K, 462K, 445K, 440K,
Continuing Claims (Oct 18): 3.71K, pr. 3.72M, 3.72M, 3.65M, 3.59M, 3.542M, 3.478M

October
23rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

478K

470K

461K

N/A

For Week Ending October 18th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Oct 18): 480.2K, pr. 483.5K, 482.5K, 474K, 462K, 445K, 440K, 438K,
Continuing Claims (Oct 11): 3.72M, pr. 3.72M, 3.65M, 3.59M, 3.542M, 3.478M, 3.525M

Jobless claims rose more than expected for the week of October 18th. The figure stood at 478,000, an increase of 15K. The figures were still been affected by job losses from Hurricane Ike. The four-week moving average, fell for the first time in seven weeks, decreasing to 480,250, a decrease of 4,500. This is still well above recessionary levels and bodes poorly for the non-farm payroll data for the month of October. We have seen 9 straight months of declines in the monthly jobs report so far in 2008.

October
16th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

461K

469K

477K

N/A

For Week Ending October 11th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Oct 11): 483.5K, pr. 482.5K, 474K, 462K, 445K, 440K, 438K,
Continuing Claims (Oct 4): 3.71M, pr. 3.65M, 3.59M, 3.542M, 3.478M, 3.525M

The number of US workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell a second-straight week. For the week ending October 11th, claims were down 16K, and came in lower than expectations. The effects of the two hurricanes from September faded from the data. Still numbers above 450K means the economy is shedding jobs, and total continuing claims rose to 3.71 million. The four-week average of new claims, rose for a 6th straight week, and is at its highest since the 2001 recession.

October
9th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

475K

497K

N/A

For Week Ending October 4th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Oct 4): 482.5K, pr. 474K, 462K, 445K, 440K, 438K, 440K
Continuing Claims (Sep 27): 3.65M, pr. 3.59M, 3.542M, 3.478M, 3.525M

US jobless claims fell by 22K to 475K for the week ending October 4th. The 4-week moving average climbed by 8K, the highest since October of 2001. Despite the fall in claims in the headline number the past week, the high level of claims remains troubling and if they persist around this level, October will be another month where the economy sheds jobs. Hurricanes Gustov and Ike added 17K to claims. Continuing claims rose by 56K to 3.659M.

October
2nd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

497K

475K

496K

N/A

For Week Ending Sep 27th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Sep 27): 474K, pr. 462K, 445K, 440K, 438K, 440K, 446K
Continuing Claims (Sep 20): 3.59M, pr. 3.542M, 3.478M, 3.525M, 3.435M

US jobless claims remained close to half a million, with the week ending September 27th showing a fresh seven-year high of 497K. It's the highest number of claims since Sept. 29th 2001. About 45K of that is a result of job losses due to recent hurricanes in Louisiana and Texas, but even without those, claims remain at a high level as the economy faces pressure from the recent financial turmoil on Wall Street. The 4-week moving average of claims rose 11.5K to 474K, and those continuing to recieve unemployment rose by 48K to 3.591M. That's the highest since Sept. 2003, and shows that those losing their jobs are having a hard time finding new work.

Nonfarm payrolls have dropped eight straight months, and tomorrow's report is expected to show another steep loss, though the ADP employment change came in better than anticipated.

September
18th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

455

440K

445K

N/A

For Week Ending Sep 13th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Sep 13): pr. 440.000, 438,000 440,250, 445,750, 440.500,
Continuing Claims (Sep 6): pr. 3.525M, 3.435M, 3.42M, 3.36M, 3.42M, 3.31M

September
11th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

445K

440K

451K

444K

For Week Ending Sep 6th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Sep 6): 440.000, pr. 438,000 440,250, 445,750, 440.500,
Continuing Claims (Aug 30): 3.525M, pr. 3.435M, 3.42M, 3.36M, 3.42M, 3.31M

From the Release: " In the week ending Sept. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 440,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 439,750."

Jobless claims remained at an elevated level for the week ending September 6th, though with the downward revision to the previous data it actually showed a decline. Levels above 400K are usually indicative of the economy shedding jobs. The 4 week moving average inched up while the total number of people collecting unemployment insurance jumped to a 5-year high of 3.525 million.