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Indicator Digest

Jobless Claims
Measures the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in a given time period. In the US, jobless claims are measured weekly, and the number of people applying for their first week of benefits is looked at more carefully as it can be an indication of an increase of firings. A larger number is bad for an economy as it implies more workers are losing their jobs, and are now looking for new work.

Main Indicator: Jobless Claims

Most Recent Release

July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
614K 612K 630K 627K

For Week Ending June 27th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jun 27): 615K, pr. 617K, 615K, 621.7K,  631.2K,
626.7K, 628.5K, 630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K
Cont. Claims (Jun 20): 6.7M, pr. 6.74M, 6.69, 6.81M, 6.76M, 6.78M,
6.66M, 6.58M, 6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M

Next Release Date: July 09th 2009, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

4/305/75/145/215/286/46/116/186/257/2
Actual631K601K637K631K623K621K601K608K627K614K
Forecast644K639K611K633K628K620K614K610K605K612K
Previous645K635K605K643K636K625K625K601K612K630K
Revised From640K631K601K637K631K623K621KN/A608K627K

Past Releases

June
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
627K 605K 612K 608K

For Week Ending June 20th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jun 20): 617K, pr. 615K, 621.7K,  631.2K, 626.7K,
628.5K, 630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K
Cont. Claims (Jun 13): 6.74M, pr. 6.69, 6.81M, 6.76M, 6.78M, 6.66M,
6.58M, 6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M,

Initial jobless claims rose 15K to 627K for the week ending June 20th. The increase surprised forecasts and shows that the labor market may not be stabilizing as quickly as the past several weeks of claims data suggested. The total number of people continuing to receive benefits rose to 6.74 million as well. Though the news disappointed, US stocks managed to brush off their initial morning decline. 

June
18th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
608K 610K 601K N/A

For Week Ending June 13th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jun 13): 615K, pr. 621.7K,  631.2K, 626.7K, 628.5K,
630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K, 654.7K
Cont. Claims (Jun 6): 6.69, pr. 6.81M, 6.76M, 6.78M, 6.66M, 6.58M,
6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M,

There was a slight increase in new unemployment claims in the week ending June 13th, although the increase to 608,000 from 601,000 was less than expected. its the second straight week that claims have been below 620K, and the number of continuing claims fell for the first time in 17 weeks (using revised figures). It's a sign that the labor market may be past its most difficult phase.
June
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
601K 614K 625K 621K

For Week Ending June 6th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jun 6): 621.7K, pr. 631.2K, 626.7K, 628.5K, 630.5K,
623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K, 654.7K, 650K
Cont. Claims (May 30): 6.81M, pr. 6.76M, 6.78M, 6.66M, 6.58M, 6.35M,
6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell 24K to 601K in the week ended June 6, a better figure than was expected and the lowest level since January. The data implies that the deepest layoffs may be over, as the economy moves out of the deepest phases of the recession. However, the total amount of people continuing to receive benefits rose to 6.81 million a new record high. So, even as the pace of firing may be easing, those workers that have lost their jobs are finding it harder to land a new one. The unemployment rate rose to 9.4% in May as nearly 6 million jobs have been lost since the recession began in December 2007. There are still ongoing pressures on the labor market, mainly the restructuring of US car companies. 

June
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
621K 620K 625K 623K

For Week Ending May 30th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (May 30): 631.2K, pr. 626.7K, 628.5K, 630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2,
646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K, 654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K,
Cont. Claims (May 23): 6.73M. pr. 6.78M, 6.66M, 6.58M, 6.35M, 6.27M,
6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 4K to 621K in the week that ended May 30. Its a sign that the labor market's decline may be easing. The number of continuing claims fell to 6.73 million, the first time decrease in that indicator in almost five months. It also breaks a streak of 17 consecutive weeks where continuing claims hit fresh record highs. Claims had been hovering in the upper 600K range prior to April, as firms stepped up their firings in the wake of the recession. Tomorrow, the US will post its monthly nonfarm payroll report which will shed more light on the US labor market, though the economy is expected to shed another 500K jobs. 

May
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
623K 628K 636K 631K

For Week Ending May 23th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (May 16): 626.7K, pr. 628.5K, 630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K,
651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K, 654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K, 607K, 582K
Cont. Claims (May 9): 6.78M, pr. 6.66M, 6.58M, 6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M,
6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M, 4.81M

The number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits fell more thane expected last week, though the total number of people continuing to collect benefits set a fresh record high for the 17th week in a row. Initial claims fell by 13K to 623K, while the total amount of continuing claims rose to 6.78 million. With laid off workers finding it hard to find new work, this month's nonfarm payroll report is expected to show the unemployment rate continuing to inch up following a rise to 8.9% in April. The figures are being heavily influenced by layoofs in teh auto sector as General Motors creeps clsoet towards bankruptcy following in the footsteps of Chrysler. 

May
21st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
631K 633K 643K 637K

For Week Ending May 16th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (May 16): 628.5K, pr. 630.5K, 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K,
657.2K, 656.7K, 649K, 654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K, 607K, 582K
Cont. Claims (May 9): 6.66M, pr. 6.58M, 6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M,
5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M, 4.81M, 4.80M

The number of US workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell 12K to a seasonally adjusted 631K, though the previous week's figure was revised down to show a higher number of claims. The total number of people with continuing claims, those workers collecting benefits for more than one week in the week ending May 9th, rose 75K to 6.66 million

May
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
637K 611K 605K 601K

For Week Ending May 9th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (May 9): 630.5K, pr. 623.5K, 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K,
656.7K, 649K, 654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K, 607K, 582K, 542.5K,  519K,
Cont. Claims (May 2): 6.58M, pr. 6.35M, 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M,
5.56M, 5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M, 4.81M, 4.80M, 4.77M, 4.61M

The number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits climbed more than expected for the week ending May 9th. Jobless claims rose by 32K to 637K, when expectations were for a 10K increase. The news is a disappointment to those watching the US labor market for signs that sharp layoffs are ebbing. The most recent nonfarm payroll data came in better than expected and jobless claims hit their lowest level since January the previous week. Instead the focus will undoubtedly be on the fresh record high number of total continuing claims which reached 6.58 million for the week ending May 2nd. Though a rebound in employment is usually a lagging indicator to a recovery, consumer confidence and spending will not return until unemployment numbers stabilize.

May
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
601K 639K 635K 631K

For Week Ending May 2nd
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (May 2): 623.5K,  pr. 637.2, 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K,
649K, 654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K, 607K, 582K, 542.5K,  519K, 518K
Cont. Claims (Apr 25): 6.35M, pr. 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M,
5.47M, 5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M, 4.81M, 4.80M, 4.77M, 4.61M, 4.49M

The labor market in the US got a second bit of good news following yesterday's better than expected ADP report. First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since late January, a sign that perhaps the worst of the layoffs as a result of the recession could be behind the US. Initial claims fell by 34K to 601K. The smoothed-out 4-week moving average declined to 623K. The report did show that the total number of people continuing to receive benefits kept on rising, hitting a fresh record high of 6.35 million. Tomorrow, the US will post its nonfarm payroll report for April, and economists are looking for a drop of around 580K.

April
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
631K 644K 645K 640K

For Week Ending April 25th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Apr 25): 637.2, pr. 646.7K, 651K, 657.2K, 656.7K, 649K,
654.7K, 650K, 642K, 639K, 619K, 607K, 582K, 542.5K,  519K, 518K, 525.7K
Cont. Claims (Apr 18): 6.27M, 6.13M, 6.02M, 5.84M, 5.72M, 5.56M, 5.47M,
5.31M, 5.10M, 5.11M, 4.98M, 4.81M, 4.80M, 4.77M, 4.61M, 4.49M, 4.61M

The number of Americans filing for first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 14K to 631K, a result that beat forecasts. A slower pace of unemployment claims suggests the recession may be easing and could foreshadow the revival in consumer spending that would be essential to any recovery. On a darker note, the total number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 6.27M, meaning its hard for the newly laid off to find new jobs.