For Week Ending July 26th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (Jul 26): 393,000, pr. 382,500 376,500, 381,000,
Continuing Claims (Jul 19): 3.28M, pr. 3.1M, 3.12M, 3.2M, 3.11M,

The number of US workers filing first time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 44K to 448K in the week ending July 26th. That's a 5-year high and blindsided forecasts. The number of people continuing to collect benefits climbed to 3.28 million a jump of 185K, the highest overall level since December 2003. The data bodes poorly for tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a 7th straight month of declines. The Labor Department attributed some of that rise to a recent extension for up to 13 weeks, and some discovered that they were eligible for new jobless benefits.

The US economy is facing a weaker job market, declines in home values and high food and energy prices, and after the effect of the recent tax rebate package faded, consumers will be weighed down again. GDP growth in teh US did show an improvement in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st and it will be important to see how growth does in the 3rd quarter.  

For Week Ending July 19th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (Jul 19): 382,500 pr. 376,500, 381,000, 390,500
Continuing Claims (Jul 12): 3.1M, forecast 3.2M, pr, 3.12M, 3.2M, 3.11M, 3.139M

The increase in numbers of those claiming unemployment in the past week was worse than feared, and matched the highest level since September 2005. This points to another poor showing by the Non-Farm Payroll employment report next week. Data this week showed a broader reach of layoffs, as the number of states seeing increases in claims significantly outnumbered those seeing decreases.

Greenback's recent steam lost its fizzle after this release, reminding the market of the poor fundamentals that will make a rate hike hard to come by.

For Week Ending July 12th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (Jul 12): 376,500 pr. 381,000(r+), 390,500
Continuing Claims (Jul 5): 3.12M pr. 3.2M, 3.11M, 3.139M

Layoffs continue to rise, led by auto and transportation industries. Manufacturing industries also shed jobs to accomodate to the shift in domestic and global demand. Michigan had the highest increase in jobless claims, while New Jersey had the lowest.

Initial claims were higher than last week's, but the 4-week moving average is starting to curve stabilize. Resilience in employment may suggest that businesses are gaining confidence that demand will pick up. Continuing claims fell, but remained above 3.0M and highlights the difficulty for the unemployed to find new work. 

For Week Ending July 5th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (Jul 5): 380,500, pr. 390,500, 378,250, 376,000
Continuing Claims (Jun 28): 3.2M, pr. 3.11M, 3.139M, 3.06M, 3.139M

Jobless claims declined by the largest amount in nearly 3 years, falling by 58K for the week ending July 5th. The figure was influenced by seasonal factors, where a typical increase in jobless claims around this time of the year did not materialize, and therefore shows a large decline. Those continuing to receive benefits rose by 91K to 3.2 million. 

For Week Ending June 28th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (June 28th): 390,500 pr. 378,250, 376,000,
Continuing Claims (June 11st): 3.11M, pr. 3.139M, 3.06M, 3.139M, 3.093M

Initial jobless claims jumped 16K for teh week ending June 28th, reaching 404K.  

For Week Ending June 21st
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (June 21st): 378,250, pr. 376,000,
Continuing Claims (June 14th): 3.139M, pr. 3.06M, 3.139M, 3.093M

Weekly jobless claims stayed steady last week, the 4-week moving averge rose by 2.25K, and the number of continuing claims jumped back to 3.139 million, the highest its been in 4 years. The headline claims figure might have been better if 4K jobless claims related to the Iowa floods are considered. The US labor market has been shedding jobs every month this year as firms are facing weaker sales amid a slowdown in the economy.

For Week Ending June 14th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (June 14th): 375,250, pr. 371.5K, 368.5K
Continuing Claims (June 7th): 3.06M, pr. 3.139M, 3.093M

Weekly jobless claims fell 5K for the week ending June 14th. Expectations had been for a larger fall in claims and the data suggests that the US economy continues to be in a state of correction. The 4-week moving average rose 3,250 to 375,250 implying that the underlying trend is one of increased layoffs. On a bright note, the number of individual continuing to receive unemployment insurance fell by 76K to 3.06 million. 

For Week Ending June 7th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (June 7th): 371.5K, pr. 368.5K
Continuing Claims (May 31st): 3.139M, pr. 3.093M

Initial jobless claims jumped 25,000 for the week ending June 7th, well above the consensus forecast. Labor department officials said the volatility may be a result of seasonal adjustment factors revolving around Memorial Day - which was on May 26th and falls on a different date every year. Today's result is a 10-week high, and more in line with more recent data. The labor market has been weakening and jobless claims should remain around this level. The total persons claiming unemployment benefits rose to 3.139 million, the highest since February of 2004.

The numbers do bear out one positive fact and that is firms are being hesitant about hiring new staff, but they are not slashing payrolls during this time of slower demand. Those losing their jobs are finding a looser labor market, with more new entrants, which has pushed the unemployment rate to 5.5% in the US. In a separate release, retail sales were boosted by shopping as a result of stimulus checks. 

For Week Ending May 31st
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (May 31st): 368,500, pr. 372,250, 372K, 367K
Continuing Claims (May 24th): 3.093M, pr. 3.109M - r, 3.073M

Initial jobless claims surprised forecasts and fell 18K to 357K for the week ending May 31st. Its the lowest level of claims in more than a month, though it may be possible that the closing of offices for Memorial Day may  have a role in skewing the data. As we've seen in previous reports, the data suggests that firms are reluctant to hire new workers, but at the same time are not shedding their current payrolls at the same numbers as they did in previous downturns. The employment situation has gotten weaker overall, as non-farm payroll data has shown over the first quarter. This month employment change is expected to show a drop of 57K jobs in the government's release on Friday.

The 4-week moving average fell to 368,500 from 372,250 and even continuing claims saw a reduction to 3.093 million. This number has been steadily rising and in last week's report its 3.109 million was the highest in more than 4 years.