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Indicator Digest

Jobless Claims
Measures the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in a given time period. In the US, jobless claims are measured weekly, and the number of people applying for their first week of benefits is looked at more carefully as it can be an indication of an increase of firings. A larger number is bad for an economy as it implies more workers are losing their jobs, and are now looking for new work.

Main Indicator: Jobless Claims

Most Recent Release

March
18th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
457K 456K 462K N/A

For Week Ending March 13th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Mar 13): 471.2K, pr. 475.5K, 470.7K, 473.7K,
467.5K, 468.5K, 468.7K, 456.2K, 448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K
Cont. Claims (Mar 6): 4.58M, pr. 4.55M, 4.50M, 4.61M, 4.56M,
4.53M, 4.60M, 4.60M, 4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M

Table of Past Data

1/141/211/282/42/112/182/253/43/113/18
Actual444K482K470K480K440K473K496K469K462K457K
Forecast438K441K451K460K458K443K466K474K453K456K
Previous434K444K478K472K480K442K473K498K468K462K
Revised FromN/AN/A482K470KN/A440KN/A496K469KN/A

Past Releases

March
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
462K 453K 468K 469K

For Week Ending March 6th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Mar 6): 475.5K, pr. 470.7K, 473.7K, 467.5K,
468.5K, 468.7K, 456.2K, 448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K
Cont. Claims (Feb 27): 4.55M, pr. 4.50M, 4.61M, 4.56M, 4.53M,
4.60M, 4.60M, 4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined by 6K to 462K for the week ending March 6th. It was the second weekly drop in a row and can be a sign that the climb in weekly claims seen the past two months may be arresting.

The rise in January and February can be attributed to some temporary factors, including very strong winter weather in the country. For the economy to post positive job growth jobless claims have to continue their downtrend that started in March.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits for the week ended February 27th rose to 4.56M from 4.52M. The prior week's 4.52M was the lowest since January 2009. Also the continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs, which declined.

March
4th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
469K 474K 498K 496K

For Week Ending February 27th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Feb 27): pr. 473.7K, 467.5K, 468.5K, 468.7K,
456.2K, 448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K, 481.5K, 496.5K
Cont. Claims (Feb 20): pr. 4.61M, 4.56M, 4.53M, 4.60, pr. 4.60M,
4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M

February
25th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
496K 466K 473K N/A

For Week Ending February 20th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Feb 20): 473.7K, pr. 467.5K, 468.5K, 468.7K,
456.2K, 448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K, 481.5K, 496.5K
Cont. Claims (Feb 13): 4.61M, pr. 4.56M, 4.53M, 4.60, pr. 4.60M,
4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M

February
18th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
473K 443K 442K 440K

For Week Ending February 13th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Feb 13): 467.5K, pr. 468.5K, 468.7K, 456.2K,
448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K, 481.5K, 496.5K, 514K
Cont. Claims (Feb 6): 4.56M, pr. 4.53M, 4.60, pr. 4.60M, 4.66M,
4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M

February
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
440K 458K 480K N/A

For Week Ending February 6th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Feb 6): 468.5K, pr. 468.7K, 456.2K, 448.2K,
440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K, 481.5K, 496.5K, 514K, 519.7K
Cont. Claims (Jan 30): 4.53M, pr. 4.60, pr. 4.60M, 4.66M, 4.61M,
4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M, 5.74M

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended February 6th came in much better than expected. New claims fell by 43K to 440K. That was a much larger drop than anticipated and is a welcome sign for the indicator after it has been climbing higher the past several weeks. Also, the number of continuing claims, those drawn by workeres collecing benefits for more than one week in the week ended January 30th, dipped by 79K to 4.538M, the lowest level in one year.

The data helped the greenback to extends gains against the Euro. If the labor market begins to make strides and begins to post positive job growth it will take away one of the factors keeping the Fed from beginning its tightenting campaign. Fed Chairman Bernanke already outlined steps he and the Fed will take in order to begin draining the excess liquidity in the financial system.

February
4th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
480K 460K 472K 470K

For Week Ending January 30th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jan 30): 468.7K, pr. 456.2K, 448.2K, 440.7K,
450.2K, 467.5K, 473K, 481.5K, 496.5K, 514K, 519.7K, 523.7K, 526K
Cont. Claims (Jan 23): 4.60, pr. 4.60M, 4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M,
4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M, 5.74M, 5.79M

January
28th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
470K 451K 478K 482K

For Week Ending January 23rd
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jan 23): 456.2K, pr. 448.2K, 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K,
473K, 481.5K, 496.5K, 514K, 519.7K, 523.7K, 526K, 532K, 531K
Cont. Claims (Jan 16): 4.60M, pr. 4.66M, 4.61M, 4.80M, 4.98M,
5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M, 5.74M, 5.79M, 5.92M

While jobless claims declined by 8K for the week ending January 23rd, expectations had been for a larger drop. Meanwhile, the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance dropped to the lowest level in a year, and those receiving extended benefits also fell. While the pace of job losses has slowed in recent months to a level that is close to flat, firms are not necessarily hiring enough new staff for the economy to gain jobs. Companies are waiting till sales pick up, and with the unemployment rate hovering at 10%, consumer spending is likely to be constrained for the time being. Still, today's durable goods data shows that companies, for the second straight month, increased their capital spending a sign that they are becoming more confident and that can be a good sign that they will begin to add to their payrolls. 

January
21st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
482K 441K 444K N/A

For Week Ending January 16th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jan 16): 448.2K, pr. 440.7K, 450.2K, 467.5K, 473K,
481.5K, 496.5K, 514K, 519.7K, 523.7K, 526K, 532K, 531K, 539.7K
Cont. Claims (Jan 9): 4.59M, pr. 4.61M R+, 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M,
5.18M, 5.46M, 5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M, 5.74M, 5.79M, 5.92M, 5.99M

January
14th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
444K 438K 434K N/A

For Week Ending January 9th
Current Release: The Department of Labor

4-Week M.A. (Jan 9): 440.7K, pr. 450.2K, 467.5K, pr. 473K, 481.5K,
496.5K, 514K, 519.7K, 523.7K, 526K, 532K, 531K, 539.7K, 548K, 553K
Cont. Claims (Jan 2): 4.59M, pr. 4.80M, 4.98M, 5.18M, 5.18M, 5.46M,
5.42M, 5.61M, 5.65M, 5.74M, 5.79M, 5.92M, 5.99M, 6.04M, 6.09M

US jobless claims rose 11K for the week ended January 9th, but the four-week moving average of claims which smooths out the volatility of the headline figure continued to decline, hitting its lowest since August 2008 at 440K. The data means that companies are making fewer job cuts as the economy begins to improve. The number of continuing claims saw another rather steep decline, sliding 211K to 4.6 million in the week ended January 2nd. That was the lowest figure since January 10th, 2009, and is about half a million less than where this figure was one month ago.

The situation in the US labor market is improving, but the rosier forecasts that may have come about as a result of the November farm-roll payroll report are now being tempered following Decembers weaker-than-expected monthly jobs report.