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Main Indicator: Labor Costs q/q
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter
Provided by: Department of Labor The non-farm business unit labor cost was revised up for the Q1 of 2007. From the release: Unit labor costs rose 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008. As in the business sector, the percent change from the same quarter a year ago was 0.7 percent. The implicit price deflator for nonfarm business output increased by 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2008. |
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Table of Past Data
| 5/3 | 6/6 | 8/7 | 9/6 | 11/7 | 12/5 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 5/7 | 6/4 | ||
| Actual | 0.60% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | -0.2% | -2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | |
| Forecast | 3.50% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | -1.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | |
| Previous | 6.30% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | -0.2% | -2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | |
| Revised From | 6.60% | N/A | 1.8% | N/A | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.6% | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: Labor Productivity q/q
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter
Labor Costs q/q: 3.3%, prel. 2.0%, pr. 2.8% (4th Q) Q1 non-farm labor productivity was revised higher to a 2.6% increase from the previous quarter. Compared to Q1 2007, productivity improved 3.3%, the highest yearly gain sincce Q2 2004. |
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Table of Past Data
| 5/3 | 6/6 | 8/7 | 9/6 | 11/7 | 12/5 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 5/7 | 6/4 | ||
| Actual | 1.70% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | |
| Forecast | 0.80% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | |
| Previous | 2.10% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | |
| Revised From | 1.60% | N/A | 1.0% | N/A | 2.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Labor Costs q/q
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
Labor Costs q/q: 2.2%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.8% (rev from 2.6%) US worker productivity climbed 2.2% in the first quarter, higher than expectations. Productivity has gone up as companies try and get more productivity out of their current workers, and trim staff hours by the most in 5 years (-1.8%). Firms are responding to weaker sales and higher raw materials costs and an economy that is seeing negative job growth during 2008 (the economy is down 260,000 according to payroll data). A loose labor market and higher productivity can work to keep wage inflation down. Labor measured 2.2% for the 1st quarter, slowing from the upwardly revised 2.8% seen in the 4th quarter. Costs were lower than the forecast of a 2.6% increase, which should also work to limit inflation. Adjusted for inflation, hourly pay decreased 0.7% in the year ended in March, which is the weakest performance in 13 years. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
Labor Costs q/q: 2.2%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.8% (rev from 2.6%) US worker productivity climbed 2.2% in the first quarter, higher than expectations. Productivity has gone up as companies try and get more productivity out of their current workers, and trim staff hours by the most in 5 years (-1.8%). Firms are responding to weaker sales and higher raw materials costs and an economy that is seeing negative job growth during 2008 (the economy is down 260,000 according to payroll data). A loose labor market and higher productivity can work to keep wage inflation down. Labor measured 2.2% for the 1st quarter, slowing from the upwardly revised 2.8% seen in the 4th quarter. Costs were lower than the forecast of a 2.6% increase, which should also work to limit inflation. Adjusted for inflation, hourly pay decreased 0.7% in the year ended in March, which is the weakest performance in 13 years. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 4th Quarter
Official Release from the Department of Labor |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 4th Quarter
Official Release from the Department of Labor There was an upward revision to the productivity report in February. This is a tame reading, especially coming after a very cost-effective period in the third quarter. As expected, unit labor cost increased, after dipping in the third quarter. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.1% | 3.5% | -2.0% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 0.5% | 6.3% | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.0% | -1.0% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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Final version for 3rd Quarter. See Comments for "US Productivity" |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter. Labor Department Worker productivity in the US accelerated at a faster pace than predicted, rising 6.3%, at an annual rate. This increase in productivity caused labor costs to fall by the most in four years. This can mean that companies may be able to keep prices constant as an increase in productivity can offset increases in energy costs. If companies do not have to respond to higher energy costs by rising prices, inflation may be contained. Lower inflation would give the Fed more room to operate when it comes to lowering interest rates to stimulate growth. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | ||
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Preliminary for 3rd Quarter. Released by US Labor Department Labor Costs decreased for the first time in over a year, as productivity in the third quarter increased more than expected, according to a preliminary report from the Labor Department. Since the labor market is slackening, pressures to increase wages may be limited in the 4th quarter. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | ||
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Preliminary Report for 3rd Quarter. Released by US Labor Department "Non-Farm Productivity" Worker productivity accelerated in the 3rd quarter, a preliminary estimate shows. The 4.9% increase is almost double the previous quarter's increase. Increased productivity led to a drop in Labor Costs which fell 0.2%. Increased productivity, compared to higher wages, make it less likely that companies have to raise prices of their products to compensate. That can be a good sign for inflation, and in this current environment the Dollar needs any good news it can get. The news did help to stop the climb of several currencies overnight, after they had set new multi-week (GBP, JPY), if not record highs (EUR, CAD) versus the greenback. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | N/A | ||
| Productivity, a measure of employee efficiency, rose at an annual rate of 2.6 percent from April through June, up from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent, according to a revised report. Labor expenses climbed at a 1.4 percent pace, less than reported last month. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
| Productivity, a measure of employee efficiency, rose at an annual rate of 2.6 percent from April through June, up from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent, according to a revised report. Labor expenses climbed at a 1.4 percent pace, less than reported last month. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | ||
| This is the nonfarm unit labor cost. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unit labor costs in manufacturing rose 1.2% with a 3.0% decline in durable goods and 7.5% increase in the nondurable goods industries. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | ||
| Preliminary figures on nonfarm productivity. According to BLS Total business sector labor productivity increased 2.6% annually in the June quarter compared to 0.2% in the 1st Quarter. Manufacturing saw 1.6% increase in productivity, with 4.7% growth in durable goods manufacturing, and a 1.9% decline in nondurable goods manufacturing. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
| Non-business labor costs went up 1.8% annually for in the 1st Quarter of 2007, while business sector labor costs increased a similar 1.9%. Manufacturing labor costs increased 4.5% annually this past quarter. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | N/A | ||
| The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 1.0% non-farm business sector and 0.5% for overall business sector. Manufacturing productivity increased 2.4%. Downward revision to output growth caused the productivity gains to be less than initially estimated on May 3. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.60% | 3.50% | 6.30% | 6.60% | ||
| The big swing is mainly due to that bonuses were counted in Q4 2006 even though they were paid out in the Q1 2007.The low labor cost increase is also partly due to the 0.3% drop in hours worked the past period. Coupled with strong productivity growth low labor cost increase is comforting to the Feds who need to curb inflation, but creates negative pressure on the currency as it provides the central bank a dovish atmosphere. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.70% | 0.80% | 2.10% | 1.60% | ||
| Productivity growing while labor cost remaining flat supports noninflationary economic growth, which supports the view that the bank will hold rates at 5.25% next week. | |||||