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Main Indicator: Producer Price Index Input
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.0% | -1.2% | -0.6% | N/A | ||
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For August
(s.a)
PPI Input y/y: 26.0%, forecast 29.2%, pr. 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
UK producer prices fell further than expected in August, as the cost of materials and oil declined, and the economy slowed. Prices charged by factories (output prices) slipped 0.6%, the first decline since October 2006, and the biggest fall since the series began in 1986. Raw material costs (input prices) declined 2.0% on the month. On the year input prices are 26.0% higher than last year, though its a reduction from July's figure of 30.1%. The data will alleviate pressure on the BOE, which would like to help the economy by lowering rates, but remains concerned about inflation. Inflation accelerated to 4.4% in July. Last week, the Bank held rates steady at 5% for the 5th straight meeting.
The Pound rose against the Dollar in the wake of the weekend announcement that the Fed was going to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but gave up its gains in a sharp 330 pip drop that was accentuated by the PPI result.
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Table of Past Data
| 12/10 | 1/14 | 2/11 | 3/10 | 4/14 | 5/12 | 6/9 | 7/14 | 8/11 | 9/8 | ||
| Actual | 1.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | -0.6% | -2.0% | |
| Forecast | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | -1.2% | |
| Previous | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | -0.6% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 1.7% | 0.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.4% | 3.8% | N/A | N/A | |

Secondary Indicator: Producer Price Index Output
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For August (n.s.a)
PPI Output y/y: 9.7%, forecast 10.0%, pr. 10.3% (Jul), 10.0% (Jun)
See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary.
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Table of Past Data
| 12/10 | 1/14 | 2/11 | 3/10 | 4/14 | 5/12 | 6/9 | 7/14 | 8/11 | 9/8 | ||
| Actual | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -0.6% | |
| Forecast | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | |
| Previous | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 0.5% | 0.5% | N/A | 0.3% | N/A | 1.4% | 1.6% | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Producer Price Index Input
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | N/A | ||
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For July
(s.a)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
PPI Input y/y: 30.1%, forecast 29.8%, pr. 30.8%(r+) (Jun), 28.7% (May)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For July (non-seasonally-adjusted)
PPI Output y/y: 10.2%, forecast 10.3%, pr. 10.0% (Jun), 9.3%(Apr)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | ||
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For June
Provided by: Office of National Statistics PPI Input y/y: 30.3%, forecast 29.0%, pr. 28.7%, 27.9% See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | ||
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For June (non-seasonally-adjusted)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | ||
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For May
PPI Output y/y s.a. 8.9%, forecast 7.9%, pr. 7.6% As feared by the BoE, inflation is still on the rise. At the factory gates, input prices soared to 27.9% on an annual basis in May, and output prices climbed 8.9% annually. Both rates are record highs in this series, which began in 1986. The faster than expected rise in factory gate inflation will dampen business sentiments, and indicate future retail prices rising and choking off consumer spending. The release boosted the Sterling against the Euro. The two respective central banks are seeing similarly threatening inflation levels, and will have to take any plans for a rate cut off the table. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | ||
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For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
PPI Output y/y: 8.9%, forecast 7.9%, pr. 7.6% R
See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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For April
(seasonally adjusted m/m)
PPI Input y/y: 23.3%, forecast 21.4%, pr. 20.6% (Mar), 19.7% (Feb) Producer prices in the UK showed no signs of easing up, as prices climbed to the fastest annual pace since at least 1986. Prices charged by factories (PPI Output) rose 7.5% on the year and 1.4% on the month, both the highest totals since records began being kept. Core prices were up 4.6% on the year. Raw material costs (PPI Input) rose 2.4% on the month and 23.3% on the year. It's the biggest annual gain on record. Oil prices reached $126.27 per barrel last week, and will continue to have to be absorbed by the UK economy. CPI data comes out overnight on Monday, and is expected to show an increase to 2.6% for March in annual terms. The Pound strengthened following the report, as it may cause the Bank of England to phase in rate cuts at an even more gradual pace than they are currently set to do. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For April
(seasonally adjusted m/m)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
PPI Output: 7.5%, forecast 6.4%, pr. 6.2% (Mar), 5.9% (Feb)
Producer prices in the UK showed no signs of easing up, as prices climbed to the fastest annual pace since at least 1986. Prices charged by factories (PPI Output) rose 7.5% on the year and 1.4% on the month, both the highest totals since records began being kept. Core prices were up 4.6% on the year. Raw material costs (PPI Input) rose 2.4% on the month and 23.3% on the year. It's the biggest annual gain on record. Oil prices reached $126.27 per barrel last week, and will continue to have to be absorbed by the UK economy. CPI data comes out overnight on Monday, and is expected to show an increase to 2.6% for March in annual terms. The Pound strengthened following the report, as it may cause the Bank of England to phase in rate cuts at an even more gradual pace than they are currently set to do.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | N/A | ||
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For March
(seasonally adjusted m/m)
PPI Input y/y: 20.6%; forecast: 19.3%; pr. 19.7% March's annual rate for input prices surged to the highest level since 1986, as UK producers continue to pay higher fuel costs. Annual output prices rose 6.2%, the highest since 1991. Inflation at shops has been manageable, but will present a problem to the BoE, which cut rates by 25bps last week. As costs increase, profit margins will shrink companies will feel the pinch. Passing along the cost increases will make prices volatile and even harder to deal with for the bank. From the release: "Month on month, the output prices measure for all manufactured products rose 0.9 per cent in March, mainly reflecting rises in petroleum product prices. If passed on in full, the changes in excise duty on tobacco and alcohol announced in the Budget would have increased the index by 0.3 per cent in March. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | ||
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For March
(seasonally adjusted m/m)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics PPI Output: 6.2%; forecast: 5.6% pr. 5.9% March's annual rate for input prices surged to the highest level since 1986, as UK producers continue to pay higher fuel costs. Annual output prices rose 6.2%, the highest since 1991. Inflation at shops has been manageable, but will present a problem to the BoE, which cut rates by 25bps last week. As costs increase, profit margins will shrink companies will feel the pinch. Passing along the cost increases will make prices volatile and even harder to deal with for the bank.From the release: "Month on month, the output prices measure for all manufactured products rose 0.9 per cent in March, mainly reflecting rises in petroleum product prices. If passed on in full, the changes in excise duty on tobacco and alcohol announced in the Budget would have increased the index by 0.3 per cent in March. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | N/A | ||
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Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for February
Press Release from Office of National Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | N/A | ||
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Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for February
Press Release from Office of National Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | ||
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Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for January
UK input prices, a measure of the cost of raw materials, jumped to an annual pace of 19.1%. This annual pace was a record and will give the centrla bank pause before it continues its campaign of lowering interest rates. The UK output price index rose an annual 5.7%. "Month on month, the input prices measure of UK manufacturers’ materials and fuels rose 2.9 per cent. This mainly reflected rises in the prices of crude oil. In seasonally adjusted terms the index rose 2.6 per cent between December and January.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||
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For January
Producer prices for goods rose 5.7% annualy, higher than expectations. The price of raw materials (PPI Input) increased an annual 19.1%. Prices were pushed up by high food prices (an annual increase of 8.5%) and continued high crude oil prices. The high pace of producer inflation caused the Pound to rise, as investors lowered expecatations of further rate cuts by the Bank of England. It has lowered rates the last 2 out of 3 sessions in a bid to help growth, but has mentioned that is concerned about inflation. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | ||
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Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for December. Press Release from Office of National Statistics PPI Input y/y: 11.3%, forecast 10.6%, pr. 10.9% (Nov). Inflation for inputs to producers was lower on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis than expected in today's report on factory gate inflation. Output prices increased more than expected. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
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For December. Press Release from Office of National Statistics PPI Output y/y: 5.0%, forecast 4.7%, pr. 4.5% Output prices increased 0.5% on the month, and 5.0% annually, reflecting rises in petrol and food products. The "narrow" output rpices, which leave outs the volatile food and energy sectors, showed an annual increase of 2.5%, and 0.4% month-over-month. Input prices increased 1.0% on the month, and 11.3% on the year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | N/A | ||
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For November. See Release from UK Office of Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
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For November. Provided by UK Office of Statistics |
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