Open a Live Account!

Open a Free Practice Account

Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.

Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.

www.cmsfx.com
Indicator Digest

Producer Prices

Main Indicator: Producer Price Index Input

Most Recent Release

June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.8% -1.7% -1.0%

Monthly Change For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: -9.4%, forecast -8.3%, pr. -5.0% (Apr), -0.4% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb),
1.5% (Jan), 4.3% (Dec), 8.6% (Nov), 13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep),28.8% (Aug),
30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)

Next Release Date: July 10th 2009, 4:30 EST

Table of Past Data

9/810/1311/1012/81/92/63/64/95/86/5
Actual-2.0%-1.2%-5.6%-3.3%-2.0%1.5%0.6%1.0%-1.0%0.4%
Forecast-1.2%-1.5%-2.6%-2.8%-2.0%0.5%-0.1%0.8%0.7%0.8%
Previous-0.6%-2.0%-1.7%-5.6%-3.0%-2.0%0.9%0.6%1.0%-1.7%
Revised FromN/AN/A-1.2%N/A-3.3%N/A1.5%N/AN/A-1.0%

www.cmsfx.com

Secondary Indicator: Producer Price Index Output

Most Recent Release

June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.4% 0.6% N/A

For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML 

Output y/y: -0.3%, forecast -0.4%, pr. 1.2% (Apr), 2.0% (Mar), 3.0% (Feb),
3.5% (Jan), 4.7% (Dec), 5.1% (Nov), 6.7% (Oct), 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Output Core m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.4% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
-0.1% (Feb), 0.4% (Jan), 0.2% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

Output Core y/y: 1.2%, forecast 1.2%, pr. 2.4% (Apr), 3.3% (Mar),
3.7% (Feb), 4.0% (Jan), 5.0% (Dec),  5.0% (Nov), 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep)

Next Release Date: July 10th 2009, 4:30 EST

Table of Past Data

9/810/1311/1012/81/92/63/64/95/86/5
Actual-0.6%-0.3%-1.0%-0.7%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.6%0.4%
Forecast0.0%-0.4%-0.4%-0.6%-0.7%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%
Previous0.4%-0.7%-0.2%-1.0%-0.7%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.6%
Revised FromN/AN/A-0.3%N/AN/AN/AN/A0.1%N/AN/A

Past Releases

Producer Price Index Input
May
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% 0.7% 1.0% N/A

Monthly Change For April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: -5.0%, forecast -3.5%, pr. -0.4% (Mar), 0.5% (Feb), 1.5% (Jan),
4.3% (Dec), 8.6% (Nov), 13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep), 28.8% (Aug),
30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)

Producer Price Index Output
May
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6% 0.2% 0.1% N/A

For April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML 

Output y/y: 1.2%, forecast 0.7%, pr. 2.0% (Mar), 3.0% (Feb), 3.5% (Jan),
4.7% (Dec), 5.1% (Nov), 6.7% (Oct), 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul),
10.8% (Jun)

Output Core m/m: 0.4%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb),
0.4% (Jan), 0.2% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug)

Output Core y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 3.3% (Mar), 3.7% (Feb),
4.0% (Jan), 5.0% (Dec),  5.0% (Nov), 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 5.6% (Aug)

Producer Price Index Input
April
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 0.8% 0.6% N/A

Monthly Change For March
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: -0.4%, forecast -0.7%, pr. 0.5% (Feb), 1.5% (Jan), 4.3% (Dec),
8.6% (Nov), 13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep), 28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul),
30.8% (Jun)

Producer Price Index Output
April
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

For March
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML 

Output y/y: 2.0%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 3.0% R (Feb), 3.5% (Jan), 4.7% (Dec),
5.1% (Nov), 6.7% (Oct), 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Output Core m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -0.1% R (Feb), 0.4% (Jan),
0.2% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)

Output Core y/y: 3.3%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.7% (Feb), 4.0% (Jan),
5.0% (Dec),  5.0% (Nov), 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul) 

Factory output prices rose by 0.1% on the month, and are 2% higher than they were one year ago. That annual rate is the slowest increase in prices in 20 months, continuing a trend of decelerating prices as a result of the recession and lower raw material costs. Core output prices were up 3.3% on the year, slower than in February, but higher than expectations. The data reinforces the idea that inflation is not currently a problem, and that the central bank can continue to keep interest rates low.

Producer Price Index Input
March
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6% -0.1% 0.9% 1.5%

For February
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: 0.5%, forecast 1.1%, pr. 1.5% (Jan), 4.3% (Dec), 8.6% (Nov),
13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep), 28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)

UK producer price growth eased in February, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. UK PPI input increased a more-than-expected 0.6% m/m mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices, following January’s downwardly revised 0.9% m/m rise. PPI input rose a less-than-expected 0.5% y/y in February, decelerating from January’s downwardly revised 1.5% y/y rate.

Producer Price Index Output
March
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% N/A

For February
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML 

Output y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.5% (Jan), 4.7% (Dec), 5.1% (Nov),
6.7% (Oct), 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Output Core m/m: 0.0%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.4% (Jan), 0.2% (Dec),
0.2% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)

Output Core y/y: 3.7%, forecast 3.7%, pr. 4.0% (Jan-R), 5.0% (Dec), 
5.0% (Nov), 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul) 

While PPI input data deviated from expectations, PPI output figures came in as forecast in February. PPI output increased 0.1% m/m in February, the same rate as in January. The PPI output inflation rate rose at 3.1% y/y, decelerating from January’s 3.5% y/y. Output core prices remained unchanged m/m February, following a downwardly revised 0.3% m/m increase in January. The core PPI output growth rate was at 3.7% y/y, as forecast, decelerating from January’s downwardly revised 4.0% y/y. 

Producer Price Index Input
February
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.5% 0.5% -2.0% N/A

For January
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: 2.3%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 4.3% (Dec), 8.6% (Nov), 13.8% (Oct),
24.0% (Sep), 28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)

Input prices at UK factories rose more than expected for the month of January, climbing 1.5%. That's the highest level since June 2008, right before oil prices went south. If this means we are seeing a return of higher prices in the production process or if this is a one-month blip in the data we've seen will become more apparent as more inflation data comes in from the UK.

Producer Price Index Output
February
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% -0.1% 0.0% N/A

For January
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML 

Output y/y: 3.5%, forecast 3.4%, pr. 4.7% (Dec), 5.1% (Nov), 6.7% (Oct),
8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
Output Core m/m: 0.4%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov),
-0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)
Output Core y/y: 4.1%, forecast 3.8%, pr. 5.0% (Dec),  5.0% (Nov),
4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul) 

Producer prices rose for the first time in 6 months, climbing 0.1% on the month and 3.5% on the year. Factory gate prices have been seeing disinflation as lower oil prices worked its way through the production process and weaker demand caused factories to cut their prices to attract business. Today's data though, came in above expectations. 

Producer Price Index Input
January
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -3.3%

For December
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Input y/y: 4.3%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 8.6% (rev from 7.5%, Nov),
13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep), 28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)

From the Release: "Month on month, the input prices measure of UK manufacturers’ materials and fuels fell 2.0 per cent. This mainly reflected a fall in the price of crude oil."

The price at which UK factories buy materials and fuel fell 2% in December, which met expectations. This comes mainly as the price of fuel decreased. In annual terms input prices rose to 4.3%, but only a couple of months ago this indicator was as high as 30%.  

Producer Price Index Output
January
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% -0.7% -0.7% N/A

For December
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Official Release: HTML 

Output y/y: 4.7%, forecast 4.6%, pr. 5.1% (Nov), 6.7% (Oct), 8.5% (Sep),
8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
Output Core m/m: 0.2%, forecast -0.3%, pr. 0.2% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct),
-0.5% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)
Output Core y/y: 5.0%, pr. 5.0% (Nov), 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep),
5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul) 

Producer output prices did not change in December, a result that was stronger than expected following a drop of 0.7% in November. That put the annual rate at 4.7% from 5.1% in November. That fall was slower that we have seen the previous several months as prices tumbled from a peak of more than 10% back in June. Annual core prices remained stable at 5% implying a level of stickiness to prices though with the economy reeling, factories are going to have to discount their goods in the next year. 

From the Release: "Output price 'factory gate' annual inflation for all manufactured products fell to 4.7 per cent in December. Input price annual inflation fell from 8.6 per cent in November to 4.3 per cent in December. Month on month the output prices measure for all manufactured products was unchanged in December, mainly reflecting a fall in prices of petroleum products being offset by rises in prices of tobacco and alcohol products. The index excluding excise duties fell by 0.4 per cent between November and December. The 'narrow' output prices measure, which leaves out volatile sectors, showed an annual increase of 5.0 per cent."

Producer Price Index Input
December
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.3% -2.8% -5.6% N/A

For November
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 7.5%, forecast 6.5%, pr. 13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep),
28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
PPI Output y/y: 5.1%, forecast 5.2%, pr. 6.8 (Oct), 8.5% (Aug), 9.1% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Input prices are declining at a rapid pace, falling 3.3% in October, and bringing the year on year change to 7.5% from 13.58%. Meanwhile, because manufacturers are able to lower their costs, the prices of goods they sell are also declining. The output price index shrank 0.7% on the month, and rose 5.1% on the year (fomo 6.8% y/y). This is good news for consumers who will feel the lower prices at the retail end and leaves the door wide open for the BoE to continue cutting rates.

 

Producer Price Index Output
December
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% -0.6% -1.0% N/A

For November
Provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS)

PPI Output y/y: 5.1%, pr. 6.7% (r-) (Oct), 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
PPI Output Core m/m: 0.2%, pr. -0.5% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep),
-0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)
PPI Output Core y/y: 4.1%, pr. 4.9% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep)
5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul)

See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary.

Producer Price Index Input
November
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5.6% -2.6% -1.7% -1.2%

For October
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 13.8%, forecast 18.0%, pr. 24.0% (rev from 24.5% - Sep),
28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
PPI Output y/y: 6.8%, forecast 7.4%, pr. 8.5% (Aug), 9.1% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Producer Price Index Output
November
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -0.4% -0.2% -0.3%

For October
Provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS)

PPI Output y/y: 6.8%, forecast 7.4%, pr. 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
PPI Output Core m/m: -0.5%, forecast -0.2%, pr. -0.5% (rev. -0.1% Sep),
-0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)
PPI Output Core y/y: 4.9%, forecast 5.1%, pr. 5.5% (rev. 5.4% Sep)
5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul)

UK factory prices declined more than expected in October. Output prices fell 1% on the month as oil prices and scrap metal costs fell. On the year, prices were 6.8% higher, but this is was still a deceleration from September. The monthly decrease of 1% was the largest decrease since records began in1986. Petroleum prices were down 5.6% on the month, the highest monthly drop since May 1986. Input prices were down 5.6%, but was 13.8% higher than in October of last year. That was also the largest monthly decrease and the sharpest slowdown in the in the rate of annual increase since comparable records began in 1986.  

Producer Price Index Input
October
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% -1.5% -2.0% N/A

For September
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 24.5%, forecast 19.8%, pr. 28.8% (rev from 26.0% - Aug),
30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
PPI Output y/y: 8.5%, forecast 8.8%, pr. 9.1% (rev from 9.7% - Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

UK producer inflation was down for the second month in a row in September. Output prices were down 0.3% on the month and cooled to an annual pace of 8.5%. August's figure was revised lower as well. This reflects a continued fall in oil prices as a result of weaker demand globally in the midst of slower growth. Input prices, which reflect prices producers pay for materials, were down 1.2% on the month. In annual terms input prices were 24.5% higher, which was higher than forecasts though lower than last month's revised 28.8%.

From the Release: "Output price annual inflation for all manufactured products fell to 8.5 per cent in September. Input price annual inflation fell from 28.8 per cent in August to 24.5 per cent in September.

Month on month the output prices measure for all manufactured products fell 0.3 per cent in September, mainly reflecting falls in petroleum and other manufactured products.

Month on month, the input prices measure of UK manufacturers' materials and fuels fell 1.2 per cent. This mainly reflected a fall in the price of crude oil."

Producer Price Index Output
October
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.4% -0.7% N/A

For September
Provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS)

PPI Output y/y: 8.5%, forecast 8.8%, pr. 9.1% (rev from 9.7% - Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
PPI Output Core m/m: -0.1%, pr. -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul)
PPI Output Core y/y: 5.4%, forecast 6.0%, pr. 5.6% (rev from 6.4% - Aug),
6.8% (Jul)

See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary. 

Producer Price Index Input
September
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.0% -1.2% -0.6% N/A

For August (s.a)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 26.0%, forecast 29.2%, pr. 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
PPI Output y/y: 9.7%, forecast 10.0%, pr. 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

UK producer prices fell further than expected in August, as the cost of materials and oil declined, and the economy slowed. Prices charged by factories (output prices) slipped 0.6%, the first decline since October 2006, and the biggest fall since the series began in 1986. Raw material costs (input prices) declined 2.0% on the month. On the year input prices are 26.0% higher than last year, though its a reduction from July's figure of 30.1%. The data will alleviate pressure on the BOE, which would like to help the economy by lowering rates, but remains concerned about inflation. Inflation accelerated to 4.4% in July. Last week, the Bank held rates steady at 5% for the 5th straight meeting.

From the Release: "Input price annual inflation fell from 29.3 per cent in July, to 26.0 per cent in August. Month on month, the input prices measure of UK manufacturers' materials and fuels fell 3.6 per cent. This mainly reflected a fall in the price of crude oil. In seasonally adjusted terms the index fell 2.0 per cent between July and August.

The 'narrow' input prices measure rose 16.4 per cent in the year to August. In seasonally adjusted terms the index rose 0.2 per cent between July and August."

The Pound rose against the Dollar in the wake of the weekend announcement that the Fed was going to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but gave up its gains in a sharp 330 pip drop that was accentuated by the PPI result.

  • GBP/USD - After Strong Start to Week, Pound Tumbles 450 Pips: The Pound-Dollar pair rose over the weekend, and peaked overnight near 1.7950. From here the Pound tumbled more than 450 pips to set an intra-day low near 1.7470. That is a fresh two and half year low for the pair. The Pound's losses accelerated following the PPI release.

    GBP/USD

  • GBP/JPY - Pound Falls 600 Pips from IKntra-Day High: The Pound-Yen saw even more volatile action. The pair hit the 195.60 level overnight then proceeded to slide almost 600 pips to trade near Friday's close. The lower PPI data is consistent with outlooks that inflation has peaked, suggesting that the BoE may soon have the scope to cut rates.

    GBP/JPY

Producer Price Index Output
September
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% 0.0% 0.4% N/A

For August (n.s.a)
Provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Previous Release: PDF

PPI Output y/y: 9.7%, forecast 10.0%, pr. 10.3% (Jul), 10.0% (Jun)
PPI Output Core m/m: -0.1%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.3%
PPI Output Core y/y: 6.4%, forecast 6.6%, pr. 6.8%

See "Producer Price Index Input" for commentary.

From the Release: "Output price annual inflation for all manufactured products fell to 9.7 per cent in August. Input price annual inflation fell from 29.3 per cent in July, to 26.0 per cent in August. Month on month the output prices measure for all manufactured products fell 0.6 per cent in August, mainly reflecting falls in petroleum and other manufactured products.

The 'narrow' output prices measure, which leaves out volatile sectors, showed an annual increase of 6.4 per cent. The seasonally adjusted measure fell 0.1 per cent between July and August."