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Indicator Digest

Producer Prices

Main Indicator: Producer Price Index m/m

Most Recent Release

March
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.7% 0.1% N/A

For Janaury
Provided by: Eurostat 
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -1.0%,  pr. -2.9% (Dec), -4.4% (Nov), -6.7% (Oct),
-7.7% (Sep), -7.5% (Aug), -8.5% (Jul), -6.6% (Jun), -5.8% (May),
-4.6% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec)

Table of Past Data

6/37/28/49/210/211/412/21/62/23/2
Actual-1.0%-0.2%0.3%-0.8%0.4%-0.4%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.7%
Forecast-0.9%0.1%0.2%-0.5%0.5%-0.3%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.7%
Previous-0.7%-1.0%-0.2%0.3%-0.7%0.4%-0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A-0.8%N/AN/A0.2%0.1%N/A

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Past Releases

February
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%

For December
Provided by: Eurostat 
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -2.9%, pr. -4.4% (Nov), -6.7% (Oct), -7.7% (Sep),
-7.5% (Aug), -8.5% (Jul), -6.6% (Jun), -5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr),
-2.9% (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov)

January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

For November
Provided by: Eurostat 
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -4.4%, pr. -6.7% (Oct), -7.7% (Sep), -7.5% (Aug),
-8.5% (Jul), -6.6% (Jun), -5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar),
-1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct)

From the Release:

Monthly changes: In November 2009, compared with the previous month, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector fell by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Prices in the energy sector rose by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. In both zones, capital goods and durable consumer goods remained stable. Non-durable consumer goods declined by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Intermediate goods decreased by 0.2% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27.
Annual changes: In November 2009, compared with November 2008, prices in total industry excluding the energy sector decreased by 3.1% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU27. Prices in the energy sector fell by 8.7% and 5.7% respectively. Intermediate goods declined by 5.0% in the euro area and by 4.3% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods dropped by 2.9% and 1.8% respectively. Capital goods fell by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU27. Durable consumer goods rose by 0.5% and 1.0% respectively.
December
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.1% -0.4% N/A

For October
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -6.7%, pr. -7.7% (Sep), -7.5% (Aug), -8.5% (Jul),
-6.6% (Jun), -5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar), -1.8% (Feb),
-0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep)

Producer prices rose 0.2% on the month in October, reversing part of the 0.4% decline seen in September. The increase came on the back of higher energy prices which were up 1% on teh month, sharply higher than the 1.6% decline seen in September. Producer prices can give an early indication of the likely direction of the consumer price index. However, looking at the annual rate which rose to -6.7%, we see that inflation pressures remain subdued currently. 

The ECB, which meets tomorrow is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 1%, but there are expectations that the ECB President will make some comments regarding the central bank's exit strategy from its extra liquidity measures. 

November
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.3% 0.4% N/A

For September
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -7.7%, pr. -7.5% (Aug), -8.5% (Jul), -6.6% (Jun),
-5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan),
1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug)

October
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.8%
September
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -0.5% 0.3% N/A

For July
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -8.5%, pr. -6.6% (Jun), -5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr),
-2.9% (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov),
6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun)

Producer prices fell 0.8% on the month in July, a steeper decline than anticipated, putting the annual rate to a record decline of 8.5%. The record decline reflected the major drop in oil prices from a year ago. Last summer oil hit a record close to $150 a barrel and currently oil trades around the $70 a barrel level. Annual prices, excluding the energy sector decreased by 4%, as non-durable consumer goods are down 3% on the year. 

August
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.2% -0.2% N/A

For Jun
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -6.6%, pr. -5.8% (May), -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% R (Mar),
-1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct),
7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun), 7.1% (May)

July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.1% -1.0% N/A

For May
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -5.8%, pr. -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% R (Mar), -1.8% (Feb),
-0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep),
8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun), 7.1% (May), 6.1% (Apr)

Eurozone producer prices unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m in May after an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m slide in April, PPI data from Eurostat showed. May PPI fell a more-than-anticipated 5.8% y/y, the largest fall since records began in January 1981, following April's 4.6% y/y decrease.  

June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -0.9% -0.7% N/A

For April
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

PPI y/y: -4.6%, pr. -2.9% R (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec),
3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun),
7.1% (May), 6.1% (Apr), 5.8% (Mar)

Producer prices fell for the ninth consecutive month in April, sliding 1% compared to March. That put the annual rate at -4.6%, which is the largest decline on record. The fall in prices was slightly more than anticipated and was driven by a 3% drop in energy prices on the month. The annual drop in energy costs was 11.2% the largest annual drop. Its not just energy bringing prices down. The core rate which strips out energy and construction costs, fell by 0.4% on the month and a record 2.4% on the year, showing underlying prices are being pressured as well. Lower inflation will give the ECB more scope to pursue its plan to buy covered bonds, something the bank is ready to confirm in tomorrow's interest rate decision statement.