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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.1% | -1.0% | N/A | ||
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For May
PPI y/y: -5.8%, pr. -4.6% (Apr), -2.9% R (Mar), -1.8% (Feb),
Eurozone producer prices unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m in May after an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m slide in April, PPI data from Eurostat showed. May PPI fell a more-than-anticipated 5.8% y/y, the largest fall since records began in January 1981, following April's 4.6% y/y decrease. |
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| 10/2 | 11/4 | 12/2 | 1/7 | 2/3 | 3/12 | 4/6 | 5/5 | 6/3 | 7/2 | ||
| Actual | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -1.9% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -1.0% | -0.2% | |
| Forecast | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.9% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 1.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.8% | -2.0% | -1.5% | -1.1% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | -0.2% | N/A | -1.9% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -0.5% | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.9% | -0.7% | N/A | ||
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For April
PPI y/y: -4.6%, pr. -2.9% R (Mar), -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan),
1.2% (Dec),
Producer prices fell for the ninth consecutive month in April, sliding 1% compared to March. That put the annual rate at -4.6%, which is the largest decline on record. The fall in prices was slightly more than anticipated and was driven by a 3% drop in energy prices on the month. The annual drop in energy costs was 11.2% the largest annual drop. Its not just energy bringing prices down. The core rate which strips out energy and construction costs, fell by 0.4% on the month and a record 2.4% on the year, showing underlying prices are being pressured as well. Lower inflation will give the ECB more scope to pursue its plan to buy covered bonds, something the bank is ready to confirm in tomorrow's interest rate decision statement. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.5% | ||
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For March
PPI y/y: -3.1%, forecast -2.9%, pr. -1.8% (Feb), -0.7% (Jan), 1.2% (Dec),
Euro-zone producer inflation fell another 0.7% in March, with the annual rate showing a 3.1% decline. Such weak producer prices should keep inflation low, which opens up the door for more rate cuts from the Euro-zone, but also presents a problem of deflation which could hurt businesses and assets. The ECB has been more gradual to cut rates and start any type of quantitative easing program, and many traders are interested to see what the ECB has to say when it concludes its meeting on Thursday. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.8% | ||
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For February
PPI y/y: -1.8%, forecast -1.5%, pr. -0.7% R (Jan), 1.2% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov),
Producer prices in the euro-zone fell another 0.5% in February, leaving them 1.8% weaker than in February of last year. It's the biggest annual fall since April 1999, and is the seventh straight month that prices have declined on the month. The data gives the ECB more leeway to cut rates as the economy continues to experience disinflation. The ECB cut rates by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points last week, leaving the door open for more rate cuts. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.1% | -1.5% | -1.3% | ||
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For January
PPI y/y: -0.5%, forecast 0.7%, pr. 1.2% (rev from 1.8%, Dec), 3.3% (Nov),
European producer price inflation fell into negative territory in annual terms for the first time since 2004 in January. Prices were down 0.5% on the year, following a downwardly revised 1.2% increase in December. The figure surprised forecasts and shows that price disinflation is still very prevalent in the Euro-zone. We noticed a larger than expected price decrease in Germany data this week as well. On the month prices were down 0.8%, which was a much bigger drop than forecast. Its not just energy prices leading the decline, but core components as well. Companies and factories have to lower prices in order to stimulate demand. Such sharp drops in producer prices will filter down to the consumer level and give the ECB concerns over deflation in the region. That may force the bank to announce new measures to combat the worst global recession since World War II. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.3% | -1.0% | -2.0% | -1.9% | ||
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For December
PPI y/y: 1.8%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 3.3% (Nov), 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep),
European producer prices fell more than expected in December, declining 1.3% on the month following a 2.0% drop in November. That put the annual rate at 1.8%, a sharp reduction from the 3.3% seen in November. Prices continue to fall as lower oil prices filtered down into the production cycle. Lower producer prices and the lowest consumer prices in 10 years are prompting global deflation concerns, where before we may have been seeing disinflation. Falling prices, though good for the consumer, hurt businesses that pull in less revenue, and with lower sales as well, are then forced to lay off staff. Usually the panacea for falling inflation are lower interest rate cuts, and though the ECB is expected to hold this week, they will be ready to cut again in March. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -1.1% | -0.8% | N/A | ||
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For November
PPI y/y: 3.3%, forecast 4.5%, pr. 6.3% (Oct), 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug),
Producer prices plunged 1.9% in November, as oil prices tumbled during that month. That pushed the annual rate down to a gain of 3.3% from 6.3% in October, and down from a peak of 9.0% in July. Producer prices can usually be used as a leading predictor of consumer prices, which signals that prices are falling faster than expected. The flash estimate of consumer prices for December, which came out yesterday, registered a growth rate of 1.6% which was below the 2% ceiling targeted by the ECB. That gives the ECB more leeway in cutting rates as the economy continues to struggle.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | ||
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For Otober
PPI y/y: 6.3%, forecast 7.1%, pr. 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul),
European producer prices dropped the most in 22 years in October, dropping 0.8% on the month. The drop was mainly due to a fall in oil and energy prices. Energy prices dropped 4% on the month, as oil has come down to $50 a barrel after setting a record in July at $147.27. It is a signal that the fear of inflation is long gone, and economies are seeing prices tumbling in the face of weaker activity and falling commodity prices. It relieves the pressure on the ECB to keep rates high in order to control prices. The ECB meets this week on Thursday and is expected to lower rates 50 basis points to 2.75%, though compared to some of the other central banks which are slashing rates, the ECB is taking a more gradual approach to lowering theirs. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.5% | N/A | ||
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For September
PPI y/y: 7.9%, forecast 8.0%, pr 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun),
Evidence continues to show that the peak of inflation has passed in the Euro-zone as global prices for commodities are easing due to the global slowdown. The Eurozone PPI peaked in July as the annual rate was 9.0%. In September the annual rate has subsided to 7.9%, as producer prices eased 0.2% on the month. Energy prices were the main culprit of surging inflation in the first place, and now are the reason price pressures are on the downside. Energy prices fell 0.9% on the month, bringing the annual rate from 22.6% in August, to 20.3%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | 1.3% | N/A | ||
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For August
PPI y/y: 8.5%, forecast 8.5%, pr 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun), 7.1% (May),
Prices producers pay for industrial inputs declined 0.5% on the month
and 8.5% on the year in August, matching expectations. The figures are
reinforcing the belief that inflation has peaked. On the month energy
costs eased back 2.5%, reflecting the slide in oil prices from the peak
at $147/bbl around $96/bbl at the time of this release.
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