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Producer Prices

Main Indicator: Producer Price Index

Most Recent Release

April
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.7% 0.9% N/A

Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for February
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

IPPI y/y: -0.8% 

Producer price inflation cooled in February as prices for petroleum and coal slowed during the period. Lower inflation helps bolster the case for the Bank of Canada to lower rates if economic growth follows the US and begins to seriously erode. 

From the Release:

"Prices for manufactured products edged up in February, as higher prices for primary metals were partly offset by lower prices for motor vehicles. The growth in raw materials prices was slowed substantially by a drop in crude oil prices.

From January to February, prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 0.1%, a marked slowdown compared with the increases of 1.1% in December and 1.0% in January. The growth in prices for petroleum and coal products slowed considerably after three months of vigorous increases. Excluding petroleum and coal products, the IPPI would have remained unchanged in February.

Strong growth for primary metal products and, to a lesser extent, fruit, vegetables and feed products was largely offset by lower prices for motor vehicles and other transport equipment."

Table of Past Data

6/287/308/309/2810/3011/291/42/12/294/1
Actual-0.5%-1.3%-0.7%-1.0%-0.9%-1.1%0.6%1.1%0.9%0.1%
Forecast0.2%-0.5%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.6%0.3%0.6%0.8%0.7%
Previous+0.3%-0.5%-1.2%-0.7%-1.0%-0.9%-1.2%0.6%1.1%0.9%
Revised From+0.2%N/A-1.3%N/AN/AN/A-1.1%N/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Raw Materials Price Index

Most Recent Release

June
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.1% 5.1% 5.1% N/A

Table of Past Data

9/2810/3011/291/42/12/294/14/305/306/27
Actual-2.8%-0.9%0.3%3.4%0.2%3.4%0.5%6.6%5.1%3.1%
Forecast-0.9%0.7%0.4%1.0%0.8%0.7%2.6%1.9%2.8%5.1%
Previous4.0%-2.8%-0.8%0.7%3.4%0.4%3.4%0.5%6.7%5.1%
Revised From3.9%N/A-0.9%0.3%N/A0.2%N/AN/A6.6%N/A

Past Releases

Raw Materials Price Index
May
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.1% 2.8% 6.7% 6.6%

Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for April
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

PPI m/m: 1.4%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.8%

From the Release: "The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) continued its upward trend with a month-over-month increase of 5.1% in April, after registering a 6.7% rise in March. The RMPI reached a new historical peak, up 22.5% from its last low point in September 2007. The increase of the RMPI in April was mainly driven by strong prices for mineral fuels, which rose significantly for a second consecutive month. If mineral fuels were excluded, the RMPI would have fallen 1.2% and would have registered its first decline after four consecutive monthly increases.

Compared with April 2007, raw materials cost plants 23.0% more. The rise in the index was primarily driven by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

Raw Materials Price Index
April
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.6% 1.9% 0.5% N/A

Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for March
Provided by: Statistics Canada

IPPI
Canadian producer inflation index accelerated to 1.7%, fueled by surges in prices for petroleum and coal products, as well as for primary metal products (5.9%) . Excluding energy products, the IPPI would have marked 0.8%.

RMPI
Raw materials surged 6.6% in March, the highest monthly increases since September of 1990. Mineral fuels were the main contributor to inflation of raw materials.

The inflation reports' impact overwhelmed that of the poor GDP report. This is becoming a deja vu of economic developments as central banks across the world are dealing with the duality of economic growth risk, and inflationary risk.

Raw Materials Price Index
April
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 2.6% 3.4% N/A
Producer Price Index
February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.9% 0.8% 1.1% N/A

Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for January
Provided by: Statistics Canada

"Prices for manufactured products continued moving upward in January, similar to the pace set in December, led by primary metal products and refined petroleum products. Prices for raw materials surged on the strength of rebounding prices for crude oil.

The IPPI edged down 0.1% on a 12-month basis, its fourth consecutive decline. Decreases in the prices for motor vehicles and other transport equipment and primary metal products were tempered by a strong increase in prices for petroleum and coal products."

Raw Materials Price Index
February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

For January
Provided by: Statistics Canada

IPPI m/m: 0.9%, forecast 0.8%, pr. 1.1%

"The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) jumped 3.4% from December to January, a much higher rate of increase than the 0.4% gain recorded in December. In January, the RMPI was pushed up primarily by the rise in prices for mineral fuels and, to a lesser extent, vegetable products and non-ferrous metals.

Compared with January 2007, raw materials cost plants 17.3% more. The increase in the index was driven primarily by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

The Canadian Dollar gained following the release, stalling a greenback rally. The surge in raw materials can add to inflationarry pressure and would make the Bank of Canada more inclined to hold rates steady. Consumer prices have been falling, especially core, so we'll have to see if the higher prices for materials gets passed through to consumers.

Producer Price Index
February
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.6% 0.6% N/A

Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for December.
Official Release from Statistics Canada

IPPI y/y: -0.9%, pr. 0.6% (Nov)

"Prices for manufactured products increased for a second consecutive month in December, led by motor vehicles and refined petroleum products. On the other hand, the rise in prices for raw materials was dampened by the stabilization of crude oil prices and a decrease in non-ferrous metal prices.

From November to December, prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 1.1%, surpassing November's increase (+0.6%). The rise in the index was caused by higher prices for motor vehicles and other transport equipment, petroleum and coal products, and pulp and paper products. Almost all major product groups registered an increase, except for primary metal products.

On a 12-month basis, the IPPI declined 0.9%, continuing its downward trend. Lower prices for motor vehicles and other transport equipment, primary metal products and pulp and paper products were tempered by a strong increase in the prices for petroleum and coal products."

 

Raw Materials Price Index
February
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.8% 3.4% N/A

For December
Official Release from Statistics Canada

"The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 0.2% from November to December, a much lower rate of increase than the 3.4% gain recorded in November. In December, the increase in prices for vegetable products and animals and animal products was tempered by a steep decline in prices for non-ferrous metals, while prices for mineral fuels remained unchanged.

Compared with December 2006, raw materials cost plants 10.0% more. The increase in the index was driven primarily by higher prices for mineral fuels and vegetable products."

 

Producer Price Index
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6% 0.3% -1.2% -1.1%
Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for November.
Official Release from Statistics Canada

IPPI y/y: 0.6%

Prices charged by manufacturers, rose 0.6%, a marginal increase after six consecutive months of declines. The rise was almost exclusively caused by surging prices for petroleum and coal products. The steep increase in energy products overmatched declines for motor vehicles and other transport equipment, metals, and pulp and paper products.

The Raw Materials Price Index surged 3.4% on the increase to crude oil prices.
Raw Materials Price Index
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3%
For November.

Official Release from Statistics Canada

The Raw Materials Price Index jumped 3.4%, as prices for mineral fuels rose 9.7%, owing mainly to a 10.7% jump for crude oil. Compared to November 2006, raw materials cost plants 15.7% more, also mainly on the back of higher prices for mineral fuels.
Producer Price Index
November
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.6% -0.9% N/A
For October.
Raw Materials Price Index
November
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.4% -0.8% -0.9%
Producer Price Index
October
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.9% -0.3% -1.0% N/A
Raw Materials Price Index
October
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.9% 0.7% -2.8% N/A
Producer Price Index
September
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -0.5% -0.7% N/A
For August
Raw Materials Price Index
September
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.8% -0.9% 4.0% 3.9%
Producer Price Index
August
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% -0.7% -1.2% -1.3%
The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) in Canada fell by 0.7% in July. According to Statistics Canada, this was the third month of declines, and was fueled by falling prices for metals (-3.9%) and the strength of the Canadian Dollar. Prices for motor vehicles (-0.8%) and transportation equipment also declined. Higher Prices for petroleum and coal products (+0.8%), and lumber and other wood products (+0.9%) brought the index up. Year-over-year, IPPI edged down 0.3%, which is the first decline in 22 months.
Producer Price Index
July
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.3% -0.5% -0.5% N/A
According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), the drop in the index from May to June essentially reflects lower prices for primary metal , petroleum and coal, and auto equipments. On a 12-month basis, prices advanced 2.2%.
Producer Price Index
June
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% 0.2% +0.3% +0.2%

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