Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Producer Prices

Main Indicator: Producer Price Index q/q

Most Recent Release

July
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.0%

1.6%

1.9%

N/A

For 2nd Quarter - Final (stage 3) commodities
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: (HTML)

PPI q/y: 4.7% pr. 4.8% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

Producer prices for the final stage of production was less than expected. Intermediate (stage 2) and preliminary (stage 1) costs were 2.7% and 3.5% respectively for the June quarter, and 7.1%, and 8.5% through the year to this quarter. This less than feared rate of inflation bodes well for the credibility of the RBA who projected inflation to somewhat stabilize by year's end.

From the release:

mainly due to price increases in building construction (+1.6%), petroleum refining (+8.2%), meat and meat product manufacturing (+3.1%), and non-building construction (+2.0%).

partially offset by price falls in other agriculture (-7.3%) and electronic equipment manufacturing (-6.4%).

AUD/NZD - Aussie Climbing vs Kiwi: The Aussie gained against the Kiwi overnight and into New York trading even with the less than expected producer price inflation numbers. Australia's fundamentals are relatively stronger than New Zealand's as the economy is being supported by robust export growth. AUD/NZD

Table of Past Data

	4/23	7/23	10/22	1/21	4/22	7/22	10/21	1/20	4/20	7/20

Actual	0.80%	1.60%	1.00%	0.20%	0.0%	+1.0%	1.1%	0.6%	1.9%	1.0%
Forecast	1.00%	1.10%	0.80%	0.20%	0.5%	+0.8%	0.9%	1.1%	1.0%	1.6%
Previous	0.80%	0.70%	1.60%	1.00%	0.2%	+0.0%	1.0%	1.1%	0.6%	1.9%
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

April
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.9%

1.0%

0.6%

N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

PPI y/y: 4.8%, forecast 3.9%, pr. 2.8% (4th Q), pr. 2.4% (3rd Q)

Australia's Q1 producer inflation during the final stage of production rose 1.9%, the largest quarterly rise since the index began in Q3 of 1998. Prices in prelimary and intermediary stages also climbed signifcantly. The report indicated that price increases in building construction, petroleum refining, electricity, gas and water outweighed price decreases in electrionic equipment manufacturing.

January
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.6%

1.1%

N/A

4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

PPI y/y: 2.8%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 2.4%

The 0.6% rise in producer's prices was driven by increases in building construction (+1.4%) and petroleum refining (+12.8%). However, price drops in other agriculture(-19.4%( and electronic equipment manufacturing (-7.2%) partially offset the increases.

October
21st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.1%

0.9%

1.0%

N/A

3rd Quarter.

PPI y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 2.3%.

July
22nd, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

+1.0%

+0.8%

+0.0%

N/A

PPI in final stage (stage 3)saw an increase of 1.0% in the June quarter, due to rise building construction and petroleum refining for the domestic component offset by decrease in import prices from electronic equipment, manufacturing and tobacco products. The intermediate stage (stage 2) prices rose 1.7%. The preliminary stage (stage 1) prices rose 1.9%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Manufacturing saw increase of 2.7% for inputs and 2.5% for outputs in the same period.

April
22nd, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.0%

0.5%

0.2%

N/A

The domestic component such as construction and manufacturing increased 0.1% and offset the 1.1% price increase in the import component such as electronic equipments and industrial machinery.

January
21st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.20%

1.00%

N/A

October
22nd, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.00%

0.80%

1.60%

N/A

July
23rd, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.60%

1.10%

0.70%

N/A

April
23rd, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.80%

1.00%

0.80%

N/A