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Indicator Digest

Producer Prices

Main Indicator: Producer Price Index q/q

Most Recent Release

January
24th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% 0.1% 0.1% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Most Current Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics

PPI y/y: -1.5%, forecast -0.9%, pr. 0.2% (3Q), 2.1% (2Q),
4.0% (1Q), 6.4% (4Q '08), 5.6% (3Q), 4.7% (2Q), 4.8% (1Q),
2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q)

Table of Past Data

10/211/204/207/2010/191/264/197/1910/251/24
Actual1.1%0.6%1.9%1.0%2.0%1.3%-0.4%-0.8%0.1%-0.4%
Forecast0.9%1.1%1.0%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.6%-0.2%0.3%0.1%
Previous1.0%1.1%0.6%1.9%1.0%2.0%1.3%-0.4%-0.8%0.1%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Past Releases

October
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.3% -0.8% N/A

For Q3
Current Release: Australian Bureau of Statistis (HTML)

Australian producer prices advanced in the third quarter according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On the year, prices rose 0.2%, the slowest annnual pace since the inception of this data series 10 years ago. 

July
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -0.2% -0.4% N/A

For 2st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: HTML

PPI y/y: 2.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 4.0% (1Q), 6.4% (4Q), 5.6% (3Q),
4.7% (2Q), 4.8% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

Australia's producer prices fell 0.8% in the 2nd quarter, which brought the annual pace of wholesale inflation to 2.1%, the lowest in 5 years. Lower producer prices filter down into consumer prices, and imply that inflation will be low enough that the Reserve Bank of Australia can keep interest rates low. The appreciation of the Australian Dollar may have had a large impact on producer prices as a strong Aussie has made imports cheaper. Tomorrow will bring consumer price data from Australia. 

April
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% 0.6% 1.3% N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: HTML

PPI y/y: 4.0%, forecast 4.9%, pr. 6.4% (4Q), 5.6% (3Q), 4.7% (2Q),
4.8% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

Producer inflation cooled in the 1st quarter, declining 0.4%, a result that surprised forecasts. The annual rate missed expectations of a 4.9% increase in prices. The Bureau cited building construction, petroleum refining and diary production manufacturing as the main reasons the index fell in the first quarter. Lower producer prices will act to lower consumer inflation.

Consumer inflation data will be coming up soon, and the RBA is looking at whether inflation will be under control in case it wants to use one more rate cut to try and stimulate the economy. 

January
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.3% 0.4% 2.0% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: HTML

PPI y/y: 6.4%, forecast 5.2%, pr. 5.6% (3Q), 4.7% (2Q), 4.8% (1Q),
2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

October
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.0% 0.9% 1.0% N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: HTML

PPI q/y: 5.6%, forecast 4.8%, pr. 4.7% (2Q), 4.8% (1Q),
2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

July
20th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 1.6% 1.9% N/A

For 2nd Quarter - Final (stage 3) commodities
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: (HTML)

PPI q/y: 4.7% pr. 4.8% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q '07), 2.4% (3Q '07)

Producer prices for the final stage of production was less than expected. Intermediate (stage 2) and preliminary (stage 1) costs were 2.7% and 3.5% respectively for the June quarter, and 7.1%, and 8.5% through the year to this quarter. This less than feared rate of inflation bodes well for the credibility of the RBA who projected inflation to somewhat stabilize by year's end.

From the release:

  • mainly due to price increases in building construction (+1.6%), petroleum refining (+8.2%), meat and meat product manufacturing (+3.1%), and non-building construction (+2.0%).

  • partially offset by price falls in other agriculture (-7.3%) and electronic equipment manufacturing (-6.4%).
AUD/NZD - Aussie Climbing vs Kiwi: The Aussie gained against the Kiwi overnight and into New York trading even with the less than expected producer price inflation numbers. Australia's fundamentals are relatively stronger than New Zealand's as the economy is being supported by robust export growth. AUD/NZD

April
20th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.9% 1.0% 0.6% N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

PPI y/y: 4.8%, forecast 3.9%, pr. 2.8% (4th Q), pr. 2.4% (3rd Q)

Australia's Q1 producer inflation during the final stage of production rose 1.9%, the largest quarterly rise since the index began in Q3 of 1998. Prices in prelimary and intermediary stages also climbed signifcantly. The report indicated that price increases in building construction, petroleum refining, electricity, gas and water outweighed price decreases in electrionic equipment manufacturing.

January
20th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6% 1.1% 1.1% N/A

4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

PPI y/y: 2.8%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 2.4%

The 0.6% rise in producer's prices was driven by increases in building construction (+1.4%) and petroleum refining (+12.8%). However, price drops in other agriculture(-19.4%( and electronic equipment manufacturing (-7.2%) partially offset the increases.

October
21st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.9% 1.0% N/A
3rd Quarter.

PPI y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 2.3%.