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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 4th Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -3.3%, adv. -3.2%, pr. -5.1% (3Q), -5.5% (2Q),
-4.1% (1Q),
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| 5/22 | 6/30 | 7/24 | 8/28 | 9/29 | 10/23 | 11/25 | 12/22 | 1/26 | 2/26 | ||
| Actual | -1.9% | -2.4% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| Forecast | -1.9% | -2.2% | -0.3% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| Previous | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.4% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For February
From the Release: "Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in February, following on from a growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in January. The figure for the three months to January reflects a comparison of the period November 2009 to January 2010 with August to October 2009. The economy was extremely weak between August and October and the January figure is therefore high despite the fact that, in the month of January output was lower than it had been in November and December. We consider that the estimate of the growth rate in the three months ending in February 2010, as compared with the period September to November 2009 offers a better indication of the underlying current progress of the economy. As figure 1 shows, we now estimate that output is 0.7 per cent higher than at the trough of the depression which we currently place in September 2009." |
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| 5/12 | 7/7 | 8/5 | 9/8 | 10/6 | 11/5 | 12/8 | 1/13 | 2/10 | 3/10 | ||
| Actual | -1.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | -1.9% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -0.4% | 0.2% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| Revised From | -1.5% | N/A | -0.4% | N/A | N/A | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For January
From the Release: "Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent
in the three months ending in January, following on from a growth of
0.1 per cent in the three months ending in December. The improvement in
the growth rate to January is more the consequence of the fact that
output in October was very weak rather than a clear indication that a
more substantial recovery is underway. Output levels are similar to
those in the early summer of last year and, although we hope the
recession is over, the economy remains very depressed.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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Advance Version for 4th Quarter
(1st Release)
GDP y/y: -3.2%, pr. -5.1% (3Q), -5.5% (2Q),
-4.1% (1Q),
The UK economy limped out of its recession in the 4th quarter, with GDP growth barely registering positive growth at 0.1%. That was lower than expectations and hurt the Pound in today's trading. The data implies that the UK recovery is a weak one and poses a challenge for the Bank of England as they consider what to do next week. Expectations had been building that this could be the meeting in which bank officials signaled the economy was strong enough to start withdrawing emergency stimulus, but with this disappointing result, that may not be the case. Though they may not expand their quantitative easing program, the chance that they may have to revisit such action later in the year may now be a more distinct possibility. Services which make up about 75% of the economy expanded 0.1% in the quarter. Industrial production grew 0.1%, which pushed the manufacturing sector up 0.4%. For 2009, the economy shrank 4.8%, the biggest annual drop since records began in 1949. For the full six quarters of the recession, GDP has shrank 6%, the deepest recession on record. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | N/A | |||
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For December
From the Release: "Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December, following on from a growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in November. These data show that GDP fell by 4.8 per cent in 2009. This is a bigger fall than in any year of the great depression and is Britain’s biggest contraction since 1921. As the graph below shows, the broader picture of the depression is that output fell sharply for twelve months until March and has not changed very much since then, although evidence of a recovery is starting to emerge." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 3rd Quarter
(3rd Release)
GDP y/y: rev. -5.1%, prelim. -5.2%, pr. -5.5% (2Q),
-4.1% (1Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.4% | N/A | |||
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For November
From the Release: "Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in November, following on from a decline of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in October. These figures are based on estimates which assume that the contraction in GDP in the third quarter of 2009 will, in the light of recent ONS data for the construction sector, be revised to 0.1 per cent. They give some hope that the renewed weakness which of the economy in the summer is now over and that the trough of the depression has been passed. On the basis of current information it seems likely that the growth rate in the three months ending in December will be higher than the November figure mentioned above." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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Revised Version for 3rd Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -5.1%, forecast -5.1%, prelim. -5.2%, pr. -5.5% (2Q),
The UK economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter, with the revised version matching forecasts of a 0.3% decline. Consumer spending was unchanged for the quarter which was the first time it hasn't dropped in 1 1/2 years. Government spending was up 0.2%, while fixed investment fell 0.3%. Services output was revised higher to show a 0.1% decrease rather than the originally stated 0.2% fall. The manufacturing sector saw a similar revision, dropping only 0.1%, up from the originally stated 0.2%. The UK economy is lagging the other developed economies in coming out of recession, and the Bank of England has been buying 200 billion pounds of bonds to aid the economy. Interest rates have been at a record low of 0.5% since March of this year. The BOE forecast that the economy will exit its recession in the fourth quarter, but that policy makers did not rule out further expansion to the asset-pourchase plan. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.0% | |||
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For October
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.6% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 3rd Quarter
(1st Release)
GDP y/y: -5.2%, forecast -4.7%, pr. -5.5% (2Q), -4.1% (1Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.2% | N/A | |||
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For September
From the Release: "Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output was unchanged in the quarter to September as compared to the second calendar quarter of the year. Industrial production was much weaker than we expected in August. In part this was because of reduced activity in the oil industry which is known to be erratic. But the manufacturing sector showed further weakness as well." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 2nd Quarter
(3rd Release)
GDP y/y: -5.5%, revised -5.5%, prelim. -5.6%, pr. -4.1% (1Q),
The UK economy shrank 0.6% in the 2nd quarter, the third and final version of these figures, which was a smaller decline that the prior release, which had the economy shrinking 0.7%. Manufacturing fell 0.1%, half the amount previously estimated, while construction declined 0.8% instead of 2.2%. Services dropped 0.6%, unchanged from the prior assessment. Though growth is expected to return to the economy in the third quarter, concerns revolve around what happens when fiscal stimulus subsides, and if growth will be slow and protracted as a result of higher unemployment. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.4% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | N/A | ||
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Revised Version for 2nd Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -5.5%, prelim. -5.6%, pr. -4.1% (1Q), -2.0% (4Q '08),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.3% | -2.4% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter
(1st Release)
GDP y/y: -5.6%, pr. -4.1% (1Q), -2.0% (4Q), -0.3% (3Q), 1.4% (2Q),
The UK economy shrank 0.8% in the 2nd quarter, a figure that undershot forecasts and pressured the Pound following its release. Though its an improvement on the 1st quarter when growth was down 2.4%, the annual rate fell to show a decline of 5.6%, the biggest annual decline since records began in 1955. That annual decline included record slumps in construction, banking and business services. It is now the 5th straight quarter that the economy has contracted. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -1.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.4% | -2.2% | -1.9% | N/A | ||
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Final Version of 1st Quarter
(3rd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.9%, forecast -4.3%, prel. -4.1%, pr. -2.0% (4Q),
The final version of UK's 1st quarter GDP surprised markets on the downside, falling 2.4% compared to the preliminary's and revised versions which saw growth contract at 1.9%. The new figure is the biggest contraction since 1958. The data will douse the speculation that the UK economy may be able to recover faster than expected as some data had been suggesting. The Bank of England has acknowledged that it will be a long road. One of the main reasons for the revision was a much bigger slump in construction, -6.9%, than first reported, -2.4%. The services sector shrank 1.6%, that too was a larger fall than the previous version's 1.2% decline. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% | N/A | ||
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Revised Version for 1st Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.1%, forecast -4.1%, pr. -4.1% (1Q prel.), -2.0% (4Q),
Private Consumption: -1.2%, pr. -1.0%
The 2nd release of UK GDP shed more details on the quarter's activity. Consumer spending fell 1.2% while business investment slid 3.8%. The 1.9% decline in growth, which was the largest slump since 1980 met expectations and matched the advance release. There was also a sharp pullback in both exports and imports. Inventories dropped by 6 billion pounds, a major contributing factor to the decline. Expectations are for a "slow and protracted" recovery with rising unemployment pressuring activity for the next year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.5% | -1.9% | -1.5% | |||
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For April
Provided by: National Institute of Economic and Social Research Previous Release: HTML |
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