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Main Indicator: Gross Domestic Product q/q
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter
Nominal GDP q/q: 0.5% forecast 0.5%, pr. 0.4%
The rest of the year is expected to be at near recession like pace because of the global slowdown which leads to the prospect of softening exports, a main driver of the Japanese economy. However, much like the case with Australia, Japan may be saved from a major downturn if demand from emerging economies increase. That will depend on whether countries such as China will get to its next level of its economic expansion, when demand for consumer products such as Japanese electronics will be lifted by a better standard of living. |
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Table of Past Data
| 6/10 | 8/12 | 9/9 | 11/12 | 12/6 | 2/13 | 3/11 | 5/15 | 6/10 | |||
| Actual | 0.8% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | ||
| Forecast | 0.8% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | ||
| Previous | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | ||
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: 3.3%, forecast 2.5%, pr. 3.7% (4th Q) Japan's economy was up 0.8% in the 4th quarter compared to 0.9% growth in the 4th quarter. On an annual rate GDP was up 3.3%. The results were better than forecast, and were led primarily by exports to Asia and emerging markets such as Russia and countries in the Middle East. Increased demand from those markets helped offset a drop in demand from the US. With German growth also flying above expectations its apparent that this time around, the US slowdown has not reverberated into a major global slowdown. Exports accounted for a good portion of higher GDP as domestic demand is weakening, considering companies are being squeezed for profits by falling US sales, higher commodity prices and a stronger yen. Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate, a second release showed and inflation is also running at a fast pace, eating into worker's real income. Lower spending by businesses and consumers may have a stronger impact in the second quarter. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 4rd Quarter
GDP Annualized: 3.5%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 3.7% The Japanese economy posted a growth rate of 0.9% compared to the 3rd quarter, and an annualized rate of 3.5%. The figures beat expectations of smaller increases. The data showed that exports were a main factor in driving growth, offsetting a slumping housing market. Net exports added 0.5% to growth. The Yen had a strong session following the news, as it toned down speculation that the Bank of Japan may have to cut rates in order to stimulate growth. Japanese exports are performing better than expected, especially as the US has entered a period of slowdown. Whereas in the past, a slumping US would bring down export driven economies along with it - such as Japan - the current situation is seeing these economies continue to push out exports as demand from emerging economies props up orders. The new buzzword for this recent phenomenon is "decoupling" and should limit the effect that the US slowdown may have on export-driven economies such as Japan and Germany.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||
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Preliminary version for 4rd Quarter
Annulaized GDP: 3.7%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.3% (July-Sep) Japan's economy beat expectations in the 4th quarter, increasing 0.9% for the 4th quarter, and 3.7% at an annualized rate. A big catalyst for the surprising showing was a 2.9% increase in business investment, including increased spending on automobiles and software, as well as orders to handle capacity from emerging economies. Domestic private consumption increased 0.2%, hardly a strong showing, and private residential investment - mainly housing - fell 9.1%, continuing a downtrend. Exports remaind steady at 2.9% growth, matchin the 3rd quarter. Imports grew 0.5% compared to a 0.1% decline in the 3rd quarter. The strong showing in the 4th quarter may taper off, especially business investment, if the slowdown in the US is protracted and effects US imports. The US is the main market for Japanese exports. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
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Final version for 3rd Quarter.
Provided by Cabinet Office In the 3rd quarter, Japan grew by .4% compared to last quarter, and at an annualized 1.5% rate in the three months that ended Sept. 30th. The original estimate, on Nov. 13th, showed a 0.6% rate of growth. The revised version was pulled down by Monday's Capital Spending (-1.2% q/q) report which showed less spending on factories and equipment, and that profits fell for the first time in five years. Domestic demand failed to match the country's strong exports, as it detracted 0.1% from 3rd quarter growth when originally it added 0.2%. Exports were boosted by demand in China and Europe, though US sales were lower. Imports fell as Japanese consumers are feeling less confident. Gas prices are at a record, and stocks are down in the past six months. With housing coming under pressure, and global growth expected to slow, the Bank of Japan does not have much room to raise interest rates from the lowest level amount major economies. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary 3rd Quarter.
GDP Annualized: 2.6% (3rd Q), 1.8% (prem. 3rd Q), pr. -1.2% (2nd Q). Nominal GDP: 0.3% (3rd Q), consensus 0.4%, pr. -0.3% (rev). GDP Deflator y/y: -0.3% (3rd Q), consensus -0.3%, pr. -0.3 (2nd Q) The July-September quarter showed 0.6% growth, better than expectations, and reversing the negative growth experienced in the April-June quarter. However, the weakening US economy, along with skittish global financial markets, will make it difficult to post good data in the 4th quarter. The Bank of Japan has not been able to move on interest rates this summer, as slower than expected growth, record oil prices, and volatility in the financial markets have pushed those expectations into 2008. Domestic demand added 0.2 points to GDP, as consumer spending (55% of GDP) increased 0.3% and business investment rose 1.7%. Housing investment plunged 7.8% as tighter building regulations hurt the housing sector. Exports were up 2.9%, and the data suggested that Japanese exports were not yet feeling ill effects from the subprime related issues. Imports were up 0.5%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
| June quarter's GDP was revised down by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government. This showed the first contraction in three quarters. Business investment was overestimated in the previous releases and had to be adjusted. Capital spending, was revised down from an increase of 1.2% to a decreased of 1.2% in the June quarter. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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April to June quarter in real terms.
Japan’s GDP growth increased a slower-than-expected 0.5% q/q annualized rate in Q2 from a revised 3.2% in Q1. Consumer spending rose 0.4% and capital investment climbed 1.2%, both matching expectations. Exports gained a stronger-than-expected 0.9% and imports rose a less-than-expected 0.8%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
| Consumer consumption, a large contributor to the GDP. was up 0.8% in the quarter of January to March. Also, business investment was stronger than expected and drove the GDP to be revised from the 0.6% preliminary estimate. | |||||