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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.8 | -4.0% | -4.0% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: -14.2%, forecast -14.9%, pr. -15.2% (1Q prel.),
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| 5/15 | 6/10 | 8/12 | 9/11 | 11/16 | 12/8 | 2/15 | 3/11 | 5/19 | 6/10 | ||
| Actual | 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -3.3% | -3.2% | -4.0% | -3.8 | |
| Forecast | 0.6% | 0.9% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -4.0% | |
| Previous | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -3.3% | -3.8% | -4.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 1.0% | N/A | -0.7% | N/A | -0.5% | N/A | -3.2% | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -4.0% | -4.2% | -3.8% | -3.2% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: -15.2%, forecast -15.9%, pr. -14.4% (rev from -12.1%, 4Q),
Japan's economy reported another dismal quarter of declining growth during the 1st quarter. GDP fell an annualized 15.2%, following a downwardly revised 14.4% decline in the 4th quarter. In quarterly terms, GDP fell 4%. Surprisingly both headline figure were better than expectations. The hope is that with central banks acting aggressively around the world, cutting interest rates to low levels and pumping money into their economies that the worst of the global recession is over, or at least will moderate. That will help Japan as its exports have plunged 26% in the quarter, cutting off a key vehicle for growth. In addition to falling foreign demand, domestic demand in Japan was the biggest negative contributor, shaving 2.6% off growth on a non-annualized basis. Consumer spending was down 1.1% and business investment plunged a record 10.4%. The Japanese government passed a 15.4 trillion yen stimulus plan in APril, and as it takes affect, there are expectations that growth can return to positive territory in the 2nd quarter. Some confidence indicators, such as that of consumers and merchants, have begun climbing, exports returned to growth in March, and industrial ouput rose for the first time since September. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.2% | -3.5% | -3.3% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 4th Quarter
Annualized GDP: -12.1%, forecast -13.4%, prel. -12.7%,
pr. -1.8% (3Q),
The Japanese economy contracted at a 12.1% annual rate in the 4th quarter as exports declined and companies scaled back investment. That's an improvement over the preliminary figure which originally showed a 12.7% annual decline. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy shrank 3.2%, which was also an improvement on the preliminary figure and a better result than expected by economists. The decline in growth was led by a sharp contraction in exports, to the tune of 13.8% on the quarter, and a drop in business investment of 5.4%. Private consumption was also down, easing 0.4% as households spent less in the face of a weakening labor market and a weaker economy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.3% | -3.1% | -0.6% | -0.5% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 4th Quarter
Annualized GDP: -12.7%, forecast -11.6%,
pr. -1.8% (3Q), -3.7% (2Q),
The Japanese economy contracted at an annualized pace of 12.7%, the worst quarter since the 1974 oil shocks, and was down 3.3% compared to the 3rd quarter. The end of 2008 saw the global economy fall into a severe and synchronized downturn. With the world's major economies the US, the UK and the Euro-zone in recession Japan has seen its exports fall by a record amount. Adding to the 13.9% decline in exports for the quarter domestic demand was faltering prior to the 4th quarter. And now with companies increasing their pace of firings, there has been an even bigger pullback in household spending. Companies are reducing their capital expenditure as well as they bet on weak economic conditions for 2009. The 1st quarter of 2009 may show data that is just as bad, as there has not been any significant change in the fundamental data coming out of the economy The central bank already has rates at 0.10% and has announced plans to buy corporate paper in an attempt to inject liquidity into financial markets. The government meanwhile has stalled in its attempt to pass a $111 billion fiscal stimulus package, which is causing added uncertainty. But the underlying weakness remains the collapse of foreign demand which hurts an export-oriented economy like Japan most, and until that recovers the outlook looks grim for the Japan's growth. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 3rd Quarter
Annualized GDP: -1.8%, forecast -0.9%, prel. -0.4%,
Japan's economy shrank more than originally estimated in the 3rd quarter. Growth was revised down to show a 0.5% contraction in quarterly terms while the annual pace decreased at an annual 1.8% pace. Those figures had been originally estimated at -0.2% and -0.4% respectively in the preliminary release. With export demand hurting as the global recession deepens Japanese firms are cutting back production, jobs and spending. Business spending declined 2% for the quarter, it was originally reported as a 1.7% drop. Separate capital spending figures last week showed a sixth straight month of decline. Companies also reduced the amount of inventory they held, which accounted for a 0.2% drop in growth, as they did not want to be caught with extra stockpiles in the face of a deepening recession at home. With companies on the defensive, expect production levels to continue falling, while profits fall leading to job losses. The news increased the feeling of risk aversion in the markets following a rather positive day for investor sentiments on Monday. The Yen gained on its rivals as did the US Dollar. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 3rd Quarter
Annualized GDP: -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -3.7% (rev from -3.0%, 2Q),
The Japanese economy, the second largest in the world, has officially slid into recession, with economic growth contracting for a second straight quarter in the face of weaker international trade and weak business investment. GDP shrank by an inflation-adjusted 0.1% on a quarterly basis and 0.4% in annual terms. Both figures came in below expectations. It's the first time Japan has been in recession since 2001. Expectations are for perhaps two more quarters in which growth is negative. Japan's main trading partners such as the US, Europe and UK are struggling under the strains of the financial crisis and have cut back demand for Japanese exports. The pace of export growth, 0.7%, was overshadowed by a 1.9% increase in imports. That means that foreign trade shaved 0.2% off quarterly growth. Domestic demand added only 0.1%, as a small increase of 0.3% in consumption and a 4.0% increase in housing spending was negated by a 1.7% drop in business investment. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.6% | N/A | ||
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Revised Version for 2nd Quarter
Nominal GDP q/q: 0.8%, forecast -0.9%, pr. -0.7% (2QA), 0.2%(1Q)
Japan's economy shrank at an annualized pace of 3.0%. That's a big downward revision from the advance estimate of a 2.4% decline and is the steepest contraction since 2001. The Japanese economy is facing weaker domestic spending from both households and companies, while exports are down as a result of the slowdown in the global economy. Exports were down 2.5% and imports fell 2.6%. There may be little the government can do to stimulate growth so it will fall on the export sector to turn things around. That might not happen the rest of 2008, so growth should remain to be weak in the 2nd largest economy in the world. The central bank cannot lower rates either to foster more lending and spending as inflation remains high and needs to be contained. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter
Nominal GDP q/q: -0.7%, forecast -0.8%, pr. 0.2% (1Q)
Japanese GDP hit forecasts of a 0.6% decline, with annualized GDP falling to -2.3%. The economy had expanded a downwardly revised 3.2% in annual terms in the 1st quarter. Japanese stocks as measured by the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 2.1% on the news, the most since August 1st. Exports declined for the quarter, the first time that's happened in 3 years. Slumping sales to the US have been joined by weak demand from Europe and even Asia. With consumers weighed down by high inflation and a slackening job market, domestic spending is slackening. The Yen gained as investors and traders cut short so called "carry-trade" positions. A sharp slowdown in the 2nd largest economy will only accelerate the global slowdown already underway. There was a bout of risk aversion as traders sold riskier assets. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter
Nominal GDP q/q: 0.5% forecast 0.5%, pr. 0.4%
The rest of the year is expected to be at near recession like pace because of the global slowdown which leads to the prospect of softening exports, a main driver of the Japanese economy. However, much like the case with Australia, Japan may be saved from a major downturn if demand from emerging economies increase. That will depend on whether countries such as China will get to its next level of its economic expansion, when demand for consumer products such as Japanese electronics will be lifted by a better standard of living. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: 3.3%, forecast 2.5%, pr. 3.7% (4th Q) Japan's economy was up 0.8% in the 4th quarter compared to 0.9% growth in the 4th quarter. On an annual rate GDP was up 3.3%. The results were better than forecast, and were led primarily by exports to Asia and emerging markets such as Russia and countries in the Middle East. Increased demand from those markets helped offset a drop in demand from the US. With German growth also flying above expectations its apparent that this time around, the US slowdown has not reverberated into a major global slowdown. Exports accounted for a good portion of higher GDP as domestic demand is weakening, considering companies are being squeezed for profits by falling US sales, higher commodity prices and a stronger yen. Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate, a second release showed and inflation is also running at a fast pace, eating into worker's real income. Lower spending by businesses and consumers may have a stronger impact in the second quarter. |
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