Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.
Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | N/A | ||
| Final Version for 4th Quarter | |||||
| 2/15 | 3/11 | 5/19 | 6/10 | 8/16 | 9/10 | 11/15 | 12/8 | 2/14 | 3/10 | ||
| Actual | -3.3% | -3.2% | -4.0% | -3.8 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | |
| Forecast | -3.1% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -4.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| Previous | -0.6% | -3.3% | -3.8% | -4.0% | -3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | |
| Revised From | -0.5% | N/A | -3.2% | N/A | -4.0% | N/A | 0.6% | N/A | 0.3% | N/A | |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||
|
Preliminary Version for 4th Quarter
Annualized GDP: 4.6%, forecast 3.5%, pr. 0.0% R- (3Q), 2.7% (2Q),
Japan's economy grew better than expected in the 4th quarter, posting a 1.1% increase compared to the previous quarter, and rose at an annual 4.6% pace. The stronger than expected growth was led by higher exports, as a global recovery and strong growth in China helped boost trade. Consumer spending was also up on items such as cars and flat screen TV's as a result of stimulus measures taken by the government to battle the inflation. Consumer spending was up 0.7%. Business investment meanwhile climbed 1%, the first positive reading in seven quarters, and is a sign that businesses are feeling more confident in the business cycle and the sustainability of the recovery. While the risks of a double-dip recession are easing, there are still some major concerns for the Bank of Japan, mainly prices. Deflation continues to be a problem. The GDP Deflator, the broadest measure of prices in the economy fell a record 3%. Prices continue to decline and households expect their wages to fall as well. That creates a deflationary spiral that the BOJ has tried to limit. The bank enacted new measures in December to try and fight deflation as it say it "does not tolerate" price declines. The Bank is expected to keep rates at 0.1% for all of 2010. If the BOJ implements more accommodative policies then the Yen may suffer. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
|
Final Version for 3rd Quarter
Annualized GDP: 1.3%, forecast 2.8%, prel. 4.8%, pr. 2.7% (2Q),
Japan's economy grew by less than a third of the pace originally reported in the 3rd quarter. The final version of 3rd quarter GDP shows the economy growing 0.3% in quarterly terms and up an annualized 1.3%. That is slower than the 1.2% quarterly pace and the annualized 4.8% reported last month. The main reason for the sharp revision was a drop in capital spending by 2.8% in quarterly terms. Originally capital spending had been reported as increasing 1.6%. In nominal terms the economy shrank 0.9% last quarter, which was more than the 0.1% contraction reported in the preliminary report.The GDP Deflator,which measures prices, slid 0.5%. The data underscores the worry currently in Japan about whether the recovery will be able to have sustainability in the wake of deflation and a stronger yen. This week, Prime Minister Hatoyama unveiled a stimulus package worth $81 billion which is designed to shore up the economy and make sure the country doesn't fall back into negative growth. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | ||
|
Preliminary Version for 3rd Quarter
Annualized GDP: 4.8%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.7% R+ (2Q),
The Japanese economy expanded 1.2% in the 3rd quarter, a figure that came in higher than expectations, and was primarily driven by a strong rebound in domestic demand. In annual terms, growth was up 4.8%, following a 2.7% increase in the 2nd quarter. Private consumption was up 0.7% on the quarter, the second straight quarter of gains, and can help alleviate some fears that the recovery will be short changed by households unwilling to spend. Residential investment faltered for a third straight quarter (-7.7%), but capital spending rose 1.6%, more than three times the pace projected by economists. The report bolsters the case that the global recovery is gaining steam, as the Euro-zone exited its recession in the 3rd quarter, and China has posted strong data including rising industrial production. The Bank of Japan, which meets later this week, will have to decide whether to begin to ease its loose monetary policy, though policy makers seem at this point reluctant to move away from their accommodative stance. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
|
Second Version for 2nd Quarter
Annualized GDP: 2.3%, prel. 3.7% pr. -14.2% (1Q),
-14.4% (4Q),
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.1% | -3.1% | -4.0% | ||
|
Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter
Annualized GDP: 3.7%, forecast 3.9%, pr. -14.2% (1Q),
-14.4% (4Q),
The Japanese economy emerged from its recession in the 2nd quarter, preliminary data showed. The economy grew 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and annualized GDP rose 3.7%, a sharp difference from the 14.2% decline seen in the first quarter. However, the growth figures did miss expectations which caused Japanese stocks to falter in today's Japanese session. Though the economy grew for the first time in 5 quarters, most of that growth was based on stimulus spending and an increase in exports that were also propelled by extra spending by governments around the world. With unemployment continuing to rise, consumer spending will continue to be pressured which can hamper a substantial recovery. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.8 | -4.0% | -4.0% | N/A | ||
|
Final Version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: -14.2%, forecast -14.9%, pr. -15.2% (1Q prel.),
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -4.0% | -4.2% | -3.8% | -3.2% | ||
|
Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
Annualized GDP: -15.2%, forecast -15.9%, pr. -14.4% (rev from -12.1%, 4Q),
Japan's economy reported another dismal quarter of declining growth during the 1st quarter. GDP fell an annualized 15.2%, following a downwardly revised 14.4% decline in the 4th quarter. In quarterly terms, GDP fell 4%. Surprisingly both headline figure were better than expectations. The hope is that with central banks acting aggressively around the world, cutting interest rates to low levels and pumping money into their economies that the worst of the global recession is over, or at least will moderate. That will help Japan as its exports have plunged 26% in the quarter, cutting off a key vehicle for growth. In addition to falling foreign demand, domestic demand in Japan was the biggest negative contributor, shaving 2.6% off growth on a non-annualized basis. Consumer spending was down 1.1% and business investment plunged a record 10.4%. The Japanese government passed a 15.4 trillion yen stimulus plan in APril, and as it takes affect, there are expectations that growth can return to positive territory in the 2nd quarter. Some confidence indicators, such as that of consumers and merchants, have begun climbing, exports returned to growth in March, and industrial ouput rose for the first time since September. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.2% | -3.5% | -3.3% | N/A | ||
|
Final Version for 4th Quarter
Annualized GDP: -12.1%, forecast -13.4%, prel. -12.7%,
pr. -1.8% (3Q),
The Japanese economy contracted at a 12.1% annual rate in the 4th quarter as exports declined and companies scaled back investment. That's an improvement over the preliminary figure which originally showed a 12.7% annual decline. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy shrank 3.2%, which was also an improvement on the preliminary figure and a better result than expected by economists. The decline in growth was led by a sharp contraction in exports, to the tune of 13.8% on the quarter, and a drop in business investment of 5.4%. Private consumption was also down, easing 0.4% as households spent less in the face of a weakening labor market and a weaker economy. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.3% | -3.1% | -0.6% | -0.5% | ||
|
Preliminary Version for 4th Quarter
Annualized GDP: -12.7%, forecast -11.6%,
pr. -1.8% (3Q), -3.7% (2Q),
The Japanese economy contracted at an annualized pace of 12.7%, the worst quarter since the 1974 oil shocks, and was down 3.3% compared to the 3rd quarter. The end of 2008 saw the global economy fall into a severe and synchronized downturn. With the world's major economies the US, the UK and the Euro-zone in recession Japan has seen its exports fall by a record amount. Adding to the 13.9% decline in exports for the quarter domestic demand was faltering prior to the 4th quarter. And now with companies increasing their pace of firings, there has been an even bigger pullback in household spending. Companies are reducing their capital expenditure as well as they bet on weak economic conditions for 2009. The 1st quarter of 2009 may show data that is just as bad, as there has not been any significant change in the fundamental data coming out of the economy The central bank already has rates at 0.10% and has announced plans to buy corporate paper in an attempt to inject liquidity into financial markets. The government meanwhile has stalled in its attempt to pass a $111 billion fiscal stimulus package, which is causing added uncertainty. But the underlying weakness remains the collapse of foreign demand which hurts an export-oriented economy like Japan most, and until that recovers the outlook looks grim for the Japan's growth. |
|||||