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Main Indicator: Gross Domestic Product q/q
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 2nd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.7%, prel. 1.7%, 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release on 14 August 2008, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 was by 0.5% lower – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – than in the first three months of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, the economic performance was up by 1.3%. The economic development in the second quarter of 2008 was characterised by a decrease in domestic uses: Gross fixed capital formation was down 1.9% on the first quarter of 2008. This is mainly due to the trend of capital formation in construction, which decreased 3.5% on the previous quarter. It must be taken into account, however, that in the first quarter of 2008 capital formation in construction recorded a 5.7% increase, which is a very good result also in a long-term comparison and was supported, among other things, by the mild winter. Capital formation in machinery and equipment was down by 0.5% from the previous quarter. While government increased its final consumption expenditure by 0.3%, final consumption expenditure of households had a downward effect on growth: It was down by 0.7% on the first three months of the year. However, growth was supported by foreign trade. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, downward trends were recorded for both exports and imports. As, however, imports decreased much more strongly (–1.3%) than exports (–0.2%), the resulting export surplus (net exports) contributed 0.4 percentage points to economic growth." |
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Table of Past Data
| 5/24 | 8/23 | 11/14 | 11/22 | 2/14 | 2/26 | 5/15 | 5/27 | 8/14 | 8/26 | ||
| Actual | 0.50% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| Forecast | 0.50% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | -0.8% | -0.5% | |
| Previous | 1.00% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | -0.5% | |
| Revised From | 0.90% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.5% | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 2.6%, prelim 2.6%, pr. 1.8% (4Q)
Private Consumption: 0.3%, pr -0.8% (4Q)
German GDP in the 1st quarter grew 1.5%, compared to a 0.3% increase in 4th quarter. The growth rate matched the preliminary estimate from May 15th. Gains were led by capital investment and construction spending. Construction spending grew 4.5%, while investment in machinery and equipment was up 4%. Construction was bolstered by mild weather during the winter. The strong overall figure will surely come down in the 2nd quarter, as a rising Euro and record high oil prices cut into spending by companies. Spending on imports outpaced spending on exports, causing the trade balance to have an overall negative effect on growth in the quarter. Both government and consumer spending rebounded from negative levels. From the Release: "As already reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) in its first release on 15 May 2008, the German economy started with much momentum into the new year after 2007 had ended not very lively: Upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustments, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.5% higher in the first quarter of 2008 than in the last three months of the preceding year. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2008 was supported primarily by gross fixed capital formation, which continued on a high level. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2007, 4% more was invested in machinery and equipment, and capital formation in construction rose by even 4.5% owing to the comparatively mild winter. Changes in inventories contributed 0.7 percentage points to economic growth. Overall final consumption expenditure, which increased by 0.5%, also had a positive effect. Government final consumption expenditure was up markedly (+1.3%), while the final consumption expenditure of households showed a slight increase of 0.3% against the previous quarter. The positive trend of exports (+2.4%) in fact continued in foreign trade but as imports rose much more markedly (+3.5%), foreign trade on the whole had a downward effect on the gross domestic product compared with the preceding quarter." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 2.6%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 1.8% (4Q)
The German economy grew at a surprising 1.5% pace in the 1st quarter. This was the fastest pace in 12 years, and compares to growth of 0.3% in the 4th quarter. The first half of the first quarter did see Germany, and by extension the Euro-zone, performing better than other economies (the US grew at 0.6% in the 1st Q), but a recent run of data suggests the German economy may be losing its momentum. German exports and manufacturing orders fell in March, and business confidence declined in April. On the year, the economy grew 2.6%, when adjusted for the number of working days. The report shows that investment was the main contributor to growth, with consumer spending helping. Exports did not aid to quarterly growth, though they did boost the annual rate. Another key was a mild winter that helped drive up performance. The Euro gained about 80 pips in the hours following the release as Euro-zone GDP for the 1st quarter also surprised on the upside. EUR/USD - Euro Sets High Following German GDP, Falters Afterwards: The Euro gained on the better than expected GDP news to set an intra-day high at 1.5545, but the pared those gains following its inflation results. The US session had a slew of reports, most painting a gloomier picture, yet the Dollar managed to extend its gains to test 1.5420.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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Revised version for 4th Quarter (s.a.)
Exports were resilient to US's slowdown, but domestic demand appears to be slacking. Net exports drove fourth quarter growth, while household spending was a drag. Capital investment also rose, but declined in for construction. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary version for 4th Quarter (s.a.)
GDP n.s.a. y/y: 1.6%, forecast 1.8%, prev. 2.4%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
| Revised (detailed) version for 3rd Quarter. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary version for 3rd Quarter (July-Sept). Federal Statistics Office German economic activity saw a strong rebound in the 3rd quarter. The gains were led by investment in machinery and equipment as well as construction spending. There was a moderate rise in private consumption. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
| The final figure for German GDP in the 2nd quarter, growth of 0.3%, matched preliminary data released on Aug 14th. This was smaller than the 1st quarter’s 0.5% growth. Exports were up 9.4% while imports increased 6.1%, with the net external trade contributing 1.7 % points to GDP growth. Gains in exports overshadowed domestic demand. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.50% | 0.50% | 1.00% | 0.90% | ||
| The headlines are consumption slowed (-1.4%) because of VAT hike, but investment boomed (+4.2%.) | |||||