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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.8% | -3.8% | -3.8% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: -6.9%, prel. -6.9%, pr. -1.7% (4Q) ,0.8% (3Q), 1.7% (2Q),
From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release on 15 May 2009, Germany's economic performance declined against one quarter earlier for the fourth time in a row in the first three months of 2009. The gross domestic product (GDP) was 3.8% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2008, upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar effects. Compared with the previous quarter, the decline in the German economic performance is mainly due to the development of the balance between exports and imports of goods and services. As in the fourth quarter of 2008, German exports fell much more than German imports in the first three months of this year. While exports declined 9.7 % upon price adjustment, imports were down 5.4% against one quarter earlier so that the balance of exports and imports contributed – 2.2 percentage points to the decline of GDP. The negative economic development in the first quarter was also characterised by investments going down notably (– 7.9%). Capital formation in machinery and equipment, in particular, was much lower than in the last quarter of 2008. Enterprises invested 16.2% less in machinery, equipment and vehicles than in the last quarter of 2008. In contrast, the decline of capital formation in construction was comparatively small with – 2.6%. Inventories were run down considerably in the reporting quarter, thus reducing growth by 0.5 percentage points. Growth was stimulated only by final consumption expenditure of households and by government final consumption expenditure, which were 0.5% and 0.3% higher than in the quarter before." |
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| 5/15 | 5/27 | 8/14 | 8/26 | 11/13 | 11/25 | 2/13 | 2/25 | 5/15 | 5/26 | ||
| Actual | 1.5% | 1.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -3.8% | -3.8% | |
| Forecast | 0.7% | 1.5% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -3.0% | -3.8% | |
| Previous | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -3.8% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 1.5% | N/A | -0.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | -2.1% | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.8% | -3.0% | -2.2% | -2.1% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: -6.9%, pr. -1.7% (4Q), 0.8% (3Q), 1.7% (2Q), 2.6% (1Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 4th Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: -1.7%, prel. -1.7%, pr. 0.8% (3Q), 1.7% (2Q), 2.6% (1Q),
GDP in Germany declined 2.1% in the 4th quarter of 2008, which is the same figure reported in the advance release. The economy has been constricted by the pullback in global trade as a result of the global recession. Exports were off 7.3% in the quarter, and investment in plant and machinery declined 4.9%. Companies are spending less on machinery as they see lean economic times ahead, and are also cutting back jobs which weakens consumer confidence and household spending. Consumer spending was down 0.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.1% | -1.7% | -0.5% | N/A | ||
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Advance Version for 4th Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: -1.7%, forecast -1.4%, pr. 0.8% (3Q), 1.7% (2Q),
The German economy shrank 2.1% in the 4th quarter, a grim figure for the final three months of 2008. That was the steepest decline since 1990. Expectations had been for a 1.7% drop. This follows a 0.5% reduction in growth in the 3rd quarter. Since Germany is the biggest economy in the Euro-zone, its worse than expected result was reflected by a bigger than expected drop in Euro-zone GDP, which fell 1.5%. Germany, which relies heavily on exports, has seen global demand for its good suffer as the world's major economies fell into recession. From the Release: "In a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter comparison, a negative influence on the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2008 was exerted especially by fixed capital formation and by the balance of exports and imports because the price-adjusted decrease in German exports was much larger than that of imports. Final consumption expenditure, too, was slightly smaller than in the third quarter, which is mainly due to final consumption expenditure of households. Also, inventories were markedly up in the fourth quarter." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 3rd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 0.8%, prel. 0.8%, pr. 1.7% (2Q), 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.5% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 3rd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.7% (2Q), 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
The German economy contracted more than expected in the 3rd quarter, marking two straight quarters of contraction and pushing the country into a technical definition of a recession. The 0.5% fall in growth follows a 0.4% decline in 2nd quarter. The slowdown was led by weaker demand for German exports while imports rose. Consumers are likely to cut back spending and save more as the economy weakens further in the 4th quarter. That will scale back activity further and the chances of a prolonged recession are definitely in the cards.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 2nd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.7%, prel. 1.7%, 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release on 14 August 2008, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 was by 0.5% lower – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – than in the first three months of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, the economic performance was up by 1.3%. The economic development in the second quarter of 2008 was characterised by a decrease in domestic uses: Gross fixed capital formation was down 1.9% on the first quarter of 2008. This is mainly due to the trend of capital formation in construction, which decreased 3.5% on the previous quarter. It must be taken into account, however, that in the first quarter of 2008 capital formation in construction recorded a 5.7% increase, which is a very good result also in a long-term comparison and was supported, among other things, by the mild winter. Capital formation in machinery and equipment was down by 0.5% from the previous quarter. While government increased its final consumption expenditure by 0.3%, final consumption expenditure of households had a downward effect on growth: It was down by 0.7% on the first three months of the year. However, growth was supported by foreign trade. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, downward trends were recorded for both exports and imports. As, however, imports decreased much more strongly (–1.3%) than exports (–0.2%), the resulting export surplus (net exports) contributed 0.4 percentage points to economic growth." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | ||
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Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 1.7%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 2.6%, prelim 2.6%, pr. 1.8% (4Q)
Private Consumption: 0.3%, pr -0.8% (4Q)
German GDP in the 1st quarter grew 1.5%, compared to a 0.3% increase in 4th quarter. The growth rate matched the preliminary estimate from May 15th. Gains were led by capital investment and construction spending. Construction spending grew 4.5%, while investment in machinery and equipment was up 4%. Construction was bolstered by mild weather during the winter. The strong overall figure will surely come down in the 2nd quarter, as a rising Euro and record high oil prices cut into spending by companies. Spending on imports outpaced spending on exports, causing the trade balance to have an overall negative effect on growth in the quarter. Both government and consumer spending rebounded from negative levels. From the Release: "As already reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) in its first release on 15 May 2008, the German economy started with much momentum into the new year after 2007 had ended not very lively: Upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustments, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.5% higher in the first quarter of 2008 than in the last three months of the preceding year. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2008 was supported primarily by gross fixed capital formation, which continued on a high level. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2007, 4% more was invested in machinery and equipment, and capital formation in construction rose by even 4.5% owing to the comparatively mild winter. Changes in inventories contributed 0.7 percentage points to economic growth. Overall final consumption expenditure, which increased by 0.5%, also had a positive effect. Government final consumption expenditure was up markedly (+1.3%), while the final consumption expenditure of households showed a slight increase of 0.3% against the previous quarter. The positive trend of exports (+2.4%) in fact continued in foreign trade but as imports rose much more markedly (+3.5%), foreign trade on the whole had a downward effect on the gross domestic product compared with the preceding quarter." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
GDP w.d.a. y/y: 2.6%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 1.8% (4Q)
The German economy grew at a surprising 1.5% pace in the 1st quarter. This was the fastest pace in 12 years, and compares to growth of 0.3% in the 4th quarter. The first half of the first quarter did see Germany, and by extension the Euro-zone, performing better than other economies (the US grew at 0.6% in the 1st Q), but a recent run of data suggests the German economy may be losing its momentum. German exports and manufacturing orders fell in March, and business confidence declined in April. On the year, the economy grew 2.6%, when adjusted for the number of working days. The report shows that investment was the main contributor to growth, with consumer spending helping. Exports did not aid to quarterly growth, though they did boost the annual rate. Another key was a mild winter that helped drive up performance. The Euro gained about 80 pips in the hours following the release as Euro-zone GDP for the 1st quarter also surprised on the upside. EUR/USD - Euro Sets High Following German GDP, Falters Afterwards: The Euro gained on the better than expected GDP news to set an intra-day high at 1.5545, but the pared those gains following its inflation results. The US session had a slew of reports, most painting a gloomier picture, yet the Dollar managed to extend its gains to test 1.5420.
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