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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A |
| 6/3 | 7/8 | 8/13 | 9/2 | 10/7 | 11/13 | 12/3 | 1/8 | 2/12 | 3/4 | ||
| Actual | -2.5% | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Forecast | -2.5% | -2.5% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | -2.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Advance Version for 4th Quarter (1st Release)
GDP y/y: -2.1%, pr. -4.0% (3Q), -4.8% (2Q), -4.9% (1Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 3rd Quarter (3rd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.0%, rev. -4.1%, prel. -4.1%, pr. -4.8% (2Q), -4.9% (1Q),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Revised Version for 3rd Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.1%, prel. -4.1%, pr. -4.8% (2Q), -4.9% (1Q),
The Euro-zone economy emerged from its recession in the 3rd quarter, with GDP climbing 0.4% in the 3rd quarter following a 0.2% drop in the 2nd quarter. Today's revised release matched preliminary estimates. The data revealed that consumer spending was down 0.2%, while corporate spending was down 0.4% after declining 1.7% in the 2nd quarter. Export growth therefore was a main factor in the rise as exports increased 2.9% from the second quarter, when they fell 1.3%. Imports rose 2.6%, and overall trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP. Government spending was positive, showing a 0.5% increase. Inventories added 0.3 percentage points to third-quarter GDP, while government spending added 0.1 percentage points, helping to overcome the declines in consumer and business spending. Unemployment is high in the Euro-zone and that will continue to weigh on consumer spending, and with government's withdrawing their fiscal stimulus measures the road ahead for recovery will be a bumpy one. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 3rd Quarter
(1st Release)
GDP y/y: -4.1%, pr. -4.8% (2Q), -4.9% (1Q), -1.5% (4Q '08),
The Euro-zone economy came out of recession in the 3rd quarter as was expected, though the growth in the quarter at a seasonally adjusted 0.4% was smaller than forecasts of a 0.5% increase. On the year the economy was down 4.1%. The rise was propelled by higher exports from Germany and France as well as the shot in the arm the economy received from government stimulus measures and loose monetary policy from the ECB. Still, there is high unemployment which is cutting into consumer spending and economists now turn their eye onto what happens as the stimulative fiscal and monetary policies begin to be withdrawn from the economy. Another concern is the rise of the Euro which makes European goods more expensive abroad. The German economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7% following a 0.4% increase in the 2nd quarter, while France grew 0.3% and Italy 0.6%. All three of those figures were below forecasts. The EUR/USD, which had been gaining overnight following a slide in Thursday's trading, stalled at the 1.49 area following the release, while the EUR/JPY slid to a new low for the week, breaking through a support level around 134.00. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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Final Version for 2nd Quarter
(3rd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.8%, prel. -4.7%, pr. -4.9% (1Q), -1.5% (4Q '08),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 2nd Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.7%, pr. -4.9% (1Q), -1.5% (4Q '08), 0.6% (3Q),
The preliminary version of 2nd quarter GDP matched the advance release, posting a 0.1% decline in quarterly terms. Today's report provided details to the headline number showing that it was increased household spending and a pullback in the decline in exports that helped to temper the recession from its -2.5% slide in the 1st quarter. Household spending rose 0.2% in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st, when it was down 0.5%. Exports meanwhile, fell 1.1%, compared to the 8.8% drop in the 1st quarter. Capital spending declined 1.3%, but that was also a much slower rate of decline than in the 1st quarter. A return of demand for European exports may be the initial driver in the recovery as consumer spending is expected to remain muted as unemployment remains high. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.5% | N/A | ||
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Flash Version for 2Q Quarter
(1st Release)
GDP y/y: -4.6%, forecast -5.1%, pr. -4.9% (1Q), -1.5% (4Q),
Euro-zone GDP shrank less than expected in the 2nd quarter, contracting only 0.1% compared to the first three months of 2009, when the economy shrank a quarterly 2.5%. Today's figure beat forecasts which saw a 0.5% decline. Those forecasts were revised after Germany and France released GDP data showing growth in quarterly terms of 0.3%. Portugal and Greece also saw positive growth while Italy, Belgium and Austria saw growth continue to contract. Year-on-year Euro-zone GDP fell 4.6%. The Euro extended its gains against the greenback, moving above 1.43, a level the Euro relinquished last Friday following a better than expected jobs release from the US. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% | N/A | ||
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Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
(2nd Release)
GDP y/y: -4.8%, advance -4.6%, pr. -1.5% (4Q), 0.6% (3Q), 1.4% (2Q),
GDP in the Euro-zone shrank by 2.5% in the 1st quarter matching the flash figure released May 15th. Today's release with its more detailed data showed the decline came as a result of a decrease household consumption, a sharp drop in exports, and a plunge in business investment. Consumption was down 0.5%, exports shrank 8.1%, and investment fell 4.2%. The fallout has been a scaling back in production which has led to layoffs. That has brought the unemployment rate to a 10-year high of 9.2% which leaves pressure on the European Central Bank to take action to stimulate the economy. The ECB concludes their meeting tomorrow, and will unveil its latest economic forecasts and its next policy steps. |
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