Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Gross Domestic Product

GDP is the broadest measures of the economy, encompassing every sector of the economy, such as consumer spending, business and residential investment. Increased growth relates to better corporate profits, stock growth, and eventually wages.

Main Indicator: Gross Domestic Product

Most Recent Release

April
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.2%

0.2%

0.6%

N/A

For the month of February
Provided by: Statistics Canada

Wholesaling activities shrank 1.4%, mostly affected by declines in sales of motor vehicles and building supplies. Manufacturers scaled back as well, with valued added falling 0.7% in February. 16 out of 21 major groups decreased, and both durable and non-durable goods both declined. Only the construction industries and the public sector of education health and administration saw growth. More rate cuts may be in order here as contraction was spread out. However, a notable part of the tepid economic pace in February can be contributed to "inclement weather". Also, the Canadian Dollar surged as European trading started, and extended gains across the board despite the poor GDP report. Other releases showed that inflation may be a major deterrent in central bank's moving forward with a rate cut campaign.

From the release:

Economic activity declined 0.2% in February, continuing at a much lower pace than in the first half of 2007. Wholesale trade and manufacturing accounted for most of the decrease.

Other notable declines were recorded in retail trade, oil and gas extraction and exploration as well as in the transportation and financial sectors.

Advances in the tourism and government-related industries and in construction were not enough to offset these declines.

Table of Past Data

	7/31	8/31	9/28	10/31	11/30	12/21	1/31	3/3	3/31	4/30

Actual	0.3% m/m	0.2% m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.7%	0.6%	-0.2%
Forecast	0.4% m/m	0.1% m/m	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
Previous	0.0% m/m	0.3%m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.7%	0.6%
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

March
31st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.6%

0.4%

-0.7%

N/A

For the month of January
Release from Statistics Canada

From the Release:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.6% in January, as the economy bounced back from the 0.7% decline registered in December 2007. Growth was broadly based, with wholesale trade and manufacturing leading the way. Growth in manufacturing in January was widespread, with almost one-third of the gain attributable to the partial recovery in motor vehicle manufacturing. This partial recovery rippled to other industries, such as rail and truck transportation."

March
3rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.1%

N/A

For the month of December
Release from Statistics Canada

GDP q/q: 0.2%, pr. 0.7%
Annualized GDP: 0.8%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 3.0%

The Canadian Dollar fell following the news that GDP slowed down more than expected for the month of December, registering a 0.7% decline. The USD/CAD pair has been drifting higher the last 2 sessions, after falling considerably in the first half of last week.

"Exports recorded a significant 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, in the wake of a rising Canadian dollar and extended holiday shutdowns in several motor vehicle manufacturing facilities. Meanwhile, strong growth in final domestic demand and an accumulation of wholesale and retail inventories drove imports up 2.6%. The drop in exports was the first decline in six quarters, as Canada's international trade balance continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter.

Consumer spending picked up in the fourth quarter of 2007, boosted by a 4.3% jump in motor vehicle purchases, higher travel spending abroad and increased purchases of air transportation. Business investment in machinery and equipment continued at a strong pace."

January
31st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.1%

0.2%

N/A

For the month of November
Release from Statistics Canada

"Economic activity increased 0.1% in November, after growing 0.2% in October and 0.1% in September. So far, in the second half of 2007, monthly economic growth has remained modest compared with the first half.

In November, output of the service industries increased 0.2% while the production of goods declined 0.2%. Gains in service industries were widespread, with retail trade as well as arts and entertainment posting the strongest advances. Small increases were also registered in construction and utilities. Conversely, forestry, manufacturing, mining and wholesale trade declined."

December
21st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.1%

N/A

For the month of October
Release from Statistics Canada

Both goods and services industries advanced. Financial sectors and retail trade also recorded growth. However, agriculture and forestry declined, with significant easing in the mines and petroleum sector.

Widespread increases in the wholesale industriesb lifted economic growth in October. Manufacturing output also rose significantly after two months of decline. Increased foreign demands for durable goods helped the manufacturing sector rebound.

November
30th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.1%

0.2%

N/A

For the month of September.

GDP Annualized (3rd Q.): 2.9%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 3.8% (Rev up from 3.4%)
Imports (3rd Q): +18.6%, pr. 7.7% (2nd Q)
Exports (3rd Q): 2.3%, pr. 3.1% (2nd Q)
Business Inventories (3rd Q): C$15.39B, pr. C$4.46B (2nd Q)

The Canadian economy expanded faster then expected in the 3rd quarter (July-September) though growth was slower than in the 2nd quarter. GDP expanded 0.7% q/q, and 2.9% in annual terms.

Consumer spending slowed (3% annualized vs 5.9% previously), but there was a large build-up of business inventories. Imports also saw a large jump, while exports cooled somewhat.

The report may give the Bank of Canada room to hold rates steady through their meeting next week, as some economists suggest they should cut to contain the effects to growth as a result of the credit conditions and the expected slowdown in its southern neighbor the United States.

October
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

N/A

For August

September
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.4%

0.2%

N/A

Month-over-month for July.

August
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2% m/m

0.1% m/m

0.3%m/m

N/A

July
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.3% m/m

0.4% m/m

0.0% m/m

N/A

Retail and Wholesale trade drove May's GDP up 0.3% after a flat April, says StatCan. Retail trade jumped 2.5% in May while wholesale trade rebounded May by 1.4%, about declining 2.0% in April. Most major sectors saw growth this month, for the exception of mines and petroleums, and agriculture and forestry.