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Wages
Following the changes in workers wages is an important factor to overall inflation. As salaries increase, consumers spend more, and thereby exert upward pressure on retail prices. Higher wages also improve consumer sentiment and bolster overall economic growth.

Main Indicator: Average Earnings Index and Bonus q/y

Most Recent Release

December
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.3% 3.2% 3.3% N/A

Table of Past Data

1/162/133/195/146/118/139/1710/1511/1212/17
Actual4.0%3.8%3.7%4.0%3.8%3.4%3.5%3.4%3.3%3.3%
Forecast3.9%3.9%3.8%3.7%4.1%3.6%3.4%3.5%3.3%3.2%
Previous4.0%4.0%3.8%3.7%4.0%3.8%3.4%3.5%3.4%3.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

November
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.3% 3.3% 3.4% N/A

For 3 months to September
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Ex. Bonus (q/y): 3.6%, forecast 3.6%, pr. 3.6% (Aug), 3.7% (Jul), 3.7% (Jun),
3.8% (May)

October
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.4% 3.5% 3.5% N/A

For 3 months to August
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Ex. Bonus (q/y): 3.6%, forecast 3.7%, pr. 3.7% (Aug), 3.7% (Jun),
3.8% (May)

From the Release: "The annual rate of growth in average earnings excluding bonuses was 3.6 per cent in the three months to August 2008, down 0.1 from the three months to July. Including bonuses, it was 3.4 per cent, down 0.1 from the three months to July."

The figures came in below expectations and show that as joblessness increases, wages are decreasing. That will present problems for consumer spending going ahead as households will have to limit spending if their earnings are smaller. That is especially true as inflation, so far, has not receded and the price of goods continues to increase.

September
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.5% 3.4% 3.4% N/A

For 3 months to July
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Earnings Ex. Bonus (q/y): 3.7% forecast 3.6%, pr. 3.7% (Jun), 3.8% (May)

The increase in wages including bonuses edged up to 3.5% from 3.4% in the 3 months to July, while regular pay in this period grew at an annual rate of 3.7%, no change compared to the 3 months to June. Employers havne't shown any wage price-setting shifts that stem from persistant inflation. This should encourage the BoC to cut rates before 2009.

 

August
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.4% 3.6% 3.8% N/A

For 3 months to June
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Earnings Ex. Bonus (q/y): 3.7%, forecast 3.7%, pr. 3.8% 

Wage growth was a moderate 3.4% in the June quarter compared to 2007 Q2, and undershot estimates of a lesser decline to 3.6%. It is expected that the increased costs to producers will eventually have to be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, lower wages, and soft employment, which in turn will weaken consumption and put a drag on inflation. However, the bank feared that inflation expectations might be embedded in wage price-setting. There has not been any evidence of that and the BoE has another reason to focus more on economic growth then supressing inflation.

June
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.8% 4.1% 4.0% N/A
May
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.0% 3.7% 3.7% N/A
March
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.7% 3.8% 3.8% N/A
For 3 months to Jan
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
February
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.8% 3.9% 4.0% N/A

For 3 months to Dec
Official Release from the Office of National Statistics

Average Earnings Index ex Bonus q/y: 3.7%, forecast 3.7%, pr 3.6%. 

"The annual rate of growth in average earnings (the AEI) excluding bonuses was 3.7 per cent in December 2007, up 0.1 from the previous month. Including bonuses it was 3.8 per cent, down 0.2 from the previous month."

January
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.0% 3.9% 4.0% N/A
For 3 months to Nov.
Official Release from the Office of National Statistics

"The annual rate of growth in average earnings (the AEI) excluding bonuses was 3.6 per cent in November 2007, unchanged from the previous month. Including bonuses it was 4.0 per cent, also unchanged from the previous month."
November's Average Earnings q/y, including bonuses, matched October's 4.0%. Wages climbed to 4.1% in September.

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