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Indicator Digest

Wages
Following the changes in workers wages is an important factor to overall inflation. As salaries increase, consumers spend more, and thereby exert upward pressure on retail prices. Higher wages also improve consumer sentiment and bolster overall economic growth.

Main Indicator: Wage Price Index q/q

Most Recent Release

February
23rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6% 0.8% 0.7% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

WPI y/y: 2.9%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.6% (3Q), 3.8% (2Q),
4.2% (1Q), 4.3% (4Q), 4.1% (3Q), 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q),
4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07)

Table of Past Data

11/132/195/138/1211/112/245/198/1111/172/23
Actual1.0%1.1%0.9%1.2%0.9%1.2%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%
Forecast1.0%1.1%1.1%1.0%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.8%
Previous1.1%1.0%1.1%0.9%1.1%1.0%1.2%0.8%0.8%0.7%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A1.2%0.9%N/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

November
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.7% 0.8% N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

WPI y/y: 3.4%, forecast 3.6%, pr. 3.8% (2Q), 4.2% (1Q), 4.3% (4Q),
4.1% (3Q), 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07)

Australian wages excluding bonuses increased 0.7% q/q in Q3 2009, as forecast, after a 0.8% q/q advance in Q2, according to the Q3 Australian wage price index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Wage growth eased to 3.4% y/y from Q2's 3.8% y/y, easing Reserve Bank of Australia rate-rise pressures next month. 

August
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.8% 0.8% N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Previous Release: PDF

WPI y/y: 3.8%, forecast 3.8%, pr. 4.2% (1Q), 4.3% (4Q), 4.1% (3Q),
4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07) 

May
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.8% 1.2% N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Official Release: PDF

WPI y/y: 4.2%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.3%, 4.1% (3Q), 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q),
4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07) 

From the Release: 

• "The Wage Price Index rose 0.8% in the March quarter, in line with market expectations. That saw annual wages growth ease a touch to 4.2%, down from 4.3% in Q4.
• The slowdown in private sector wages growth, in response to the weaker economic environment, is underway. This comes as no surprise and was expected by the RBA.
• The downward pressure on wages growth is particularly apparent from the broader wage measure - that is, including bonuses. On this basis, annual growth in private sector wages dropped to 3.7%, down from 4.2% in Q4 and well down from a peak of 4.9% back in 2008Q1. The current pace of 3.7% is just a fraction above the historic average of 3.6% (this series dates from 1998).
• With unemployment set to climb above 8% and remain elevated throughout 2010, the outlook is for a further moderation in wages growth."

February
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Previous Release: PDF

WPI y/y: 4.3%, forecast 3.8%, pr. 4.1% (3Q), 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q),
4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07)

November
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Current Release: PDF

WPI y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q '07),
4.2% (3Q '07)

An easing of wage price inflation should help give the Reserve Bank of Australia more confidence in their recent rate cuts.

From the Release:

• "The headline Wage Price Index was below consensus in Q3, rising 0.9%qtr (consensus 1.0%) leaving annual growth steady at 4.1%yr for the third consecutive quarter.
• The weaker quarterly result is largely a reflection of the continued saw-tooth pattern over the last two years due to the shifted timing of annual minimum wage decisions. The annual rate is least biased by this timing shift, and remains consistent with the RBA's rhetoric on wage inflation in the November SoMP, with annual growth above its historical average, but not accelerating over the past year.
• The private sector WPI rose 0.9%qtr taking annual growth to 4.2%yr from 4.3%. The public WPI rose 0.9%qtr taking annual growth to 3.7%yr from 3.8%.
• A broader measure than the headline WPI is for total hourly rates of pay including bonuses, which showed a further deceleration to 4.2%yr (vs 4.5% prev) for all sectors, with the private sector pace easing to 4.4%yr (vs 4.8% prev).
• With headline WPI data consistent with the RBA's view, an easing in broader WPI wage measures, and the deteriorating outlook for the labour market, wage growth will remain no constraint on further monetary policy easings." 

August
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.2% 1.0% 0.9% N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

WPI y/y: 4.2%, forecast 4.1%, pr. 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4th Q), 4.2% (3rd Q)

The Bureau of Statistics showed that wages exluding bonuses grew 1.2% in the June quarter, the biggest quarterly rise since the series began in 1997. Analysts see the central bank noting the annual increase of 4.2, which is within a manageable and familiar range and does not pose an inflation threa. 

May
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.9% 1.1% 1.1% N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Wage Price Index y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.3%, pr. 4.2% (4th Q), 4.2% (3rd Q)

Wage inflation in the 1st quarter was lower in Australia than economists had forecast. Quarter-on-quarter the wage price index rose 0.9%, slower than the 1.1% seen in the 4th quarter. The annual pace declined to 4.1%, lower that the previous 2 quarters. Wages had been going up at a fast pace as Australia's commodity export sector is booming and demand for labor was strong. The tight labor market from the 4th quarter may have given way to expectations of a slowdown.   

February
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 1.1% 1.0% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Wage Price Index y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.2% (3rd Q)

Australian wages growth accelerated in the 4th quarter. This is another sign to the Reserve Bank of Australia that inflation, which has reached the fastest level since 1991, needs aggressive action. The bank is likely to increase rates from 7%, an 11-year high, when they meet next on March 4th. 

November
13th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 1.0% 1.1% N/A
For 3rd Quarter.

Wage Price Index y/y: 4.2% (3rd Q), forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.0% (2nd Q)