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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.1% | -2.9% | -5.3% | N/A | ||
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For December
10-City Index y/y: -2.4%, pr. -4.5% (Nov), -6.4% (Oct),
4th Quarter y/y: -2.5%, forecast -1.2%, pr. 8.9% |
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| 5/26 | 6/30 | 7/28 | 8/25 | 9/29 | 10/27 | 11/24 | 12/29 | 1/26 | 2/23 | ||
| Actual | -18.7% | -18.1% | -17.1% | -15.4% | -13.3% | -11.3% | -9.4% | -7.3% | -5.3% | -3.1% | |
| Forecast | -18.3% | -18.7% | -17.8% | -16.3% | -14.3% | -11.9% | -9.1% | -7.1% | -4.9% | -2.9% | |
| Previous | -18.7% | -18.7% | -18.1% | -17.1% | -15.4% | -13.3% | -11.3% | -9.3% | -7.3% | -5.3% | |
| Revised From | -18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -9.4% | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | ||
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For December
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: pr. 0.5% (Nov), -1.9% (Oct), -1.0% (Sep), -3.6% (Aug),
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| 5/27 | 6/23 | 7/22 | 8/25 | 9/22 | 10/22 | 11/24 | 12/22 | 1/26 | 2/25 | ||
| Actual | -1.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | -1.6% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | -1.4% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Revised From | 0.7% | -1.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | N/A | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -5.3% | -4.9% | -7.3% | N/A | ||
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For November
10-City Index y/y: -4.5%, pr. -6.4% (Oct), -8.4% (Sep),
Housing prices in 20 US cities rose in November for the sixth consecutive month, climbing 0.2% following a 0.3% rise in October. That means that prices have likely bottomed out, with the annual rate continuing to post smaller declines following a readings of close to -19% at the beginning of the year. In November, the annual rate saw down 5.3% an improvement on October's 7.3% decline, but a weaker reading than expected by economists. Still it was the smallest year-over-year decline in two years. The housing market has been boosted by a government tax credit for first-time home buyers, but a steady pace of foreclosures should keep any gain in housing prices limited for the time being. Also, until unemployment begins to decline households are going to be cautious about a major investment as buying a home, which will be another negative factor on the housing sector.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | ||
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For November
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: 0.5%, pr. -1.9% (Oct), -1.0% (Sep), -3.6% (Aug),
From the Release: "U.S. house prices rose 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. October’s previously reported 0.6 percent increase was revised downward to a 0.4 percent increase. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. house prices rose 0.5 percent. The U.S. index is 10.3 percent below its April 2007 peak." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -7.3% | -7.1% | -9.3% | -9.4% | ||
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For October
10-City Index y/y: -6.4%, pr. -8.4% (Sep), -10.6% (Aug),
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index increased 0.4% in October from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis. That was the 5th straight month that prices have climbed higher. On an annual basis the gauge was down 7.3%, slighlty more than expected by economists but still the smallest annual decline since October 2007. 11 out of the 20 metro areas covered by the index showed an increase. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.2% | -0.4% | 0.0% | ||
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For October
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -1.9%, pr. -1.0% (Sep), -3.6% (Aug), -4.2% (Jul),
Housing prices, as measured by the governmental agency that tracks purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, rose 0.6% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis. That beat expectations of a 0.2% increase. Higher housing prices increases the wealth of households which has been eroded significantly during the recession. It would work to improve confidence and higher selling prices would give those sellers more money to spend in the economy which would boost consumption. However, despite the higher headline rate, September’s flat reading was revised downward to show housing prices slipping 0.4%. Traders will now await the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city and 10-city indexes for further insight into how housing prices fared during the October period. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -9.4% | -9.1% | -11.3% | N/A | ||
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For September
10-City Index y/y: -8.4%, pr. -10.6% (Aug), -12.8% (Jul),
Housing prices continued to show improvement in September, which showed a 5th straight monthly increase. The 20-city index rose 0.3% on the month while the 10-city index rose 0.4%. On the year, the indexes fell 0.4% and 8.4% respectively. For the third quarter, prices were up 3.1% on the quarter, though down 8.9% on the year. Housing prices have to come a long way following their collapse in 2008 and 2009. The figures follow mixed data in the housing sector recently. This week we saw existing home sales surge on the back of low mortgage rates and a big tax credit, but last week we saw housing starts slide sharply, undoing months of gains. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% | ||
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For September
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -1.0%, pr. -3.6% (Aug), -4.2% (Jul), -5.0% (Jun),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -11.3% | -11.9% | -13.3% | N/A | ||
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For August
10-City Index y/y: -10.6%, pr. -12.8% (Jul), -15.1% (Jun),
From the Release: "Data through August 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009." “Broadly speaking, the rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two Composites and 19 of the 20 metro areas showed an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, 17 of the MSAs and both Composites saw price increases in August over July. While many of the markets remain down versus this time last year, the relative rate of decline has shown some real improvement." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For August
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -3.6%, pr. -4.2% (Jul), -5.0% (Jun), -5.6% (May),
From the Release: "U.S. home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from July to August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.3 percent increase in July was unrevised. For the 12 months ending in August, U.S. prices fell 3.6 percent. The U.S. index is 10.7 percent below its April 2007 peak." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -13.3% | -14.3% | -15.4% | N/A | ||
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For July
10-City Index y/y: -12.8%, pr. -15.1% (Jun), -16.8% (May),
The market value of homes in 20 major cities rose by 1.6% in July compared to June, the third monthly increase in a row. That put the annual decline at 13.3%, which was a better figure than expected. The data shows that the housing prices are now stabilizing. However, with the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit and increased foreclosures could put more downward pressure on prices. The drop in housing prices was a major catalyst for the financial crisis as institutions made too many bets that US home prices would continue to rise. So a housing bubble, turned into a global recession. It is encouraging to see prices bottoming out, but the housing market may bounce around the bottom for a while now as the finances of US families remain depressed. With the unemployment rate approaching 10%, demand for buying homes will remain weak, while those unable to keep up with their payments will see their homes foreclosed. A new wave of foreclosures could exert downward pressure on housing prices. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||
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For Jul
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -4.2%, pr. -5.0% (Jun), -5.6% (May), -6.8% (Apr),
House prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from June to July, a figure that was lower than expectations, while the 0.5% increase for June was revised down to show a much smaller 0.1% increase. The data shows a slightly weaker picture of housing prices, though on the year they continue to show improvement. In July house prices were 4.2% lower than they were 12 months ago. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -15.4% | -16.3% | -17.1% | N/A | ||
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For June
10-City Index y/y: -15.1% pr. -16.8% (May), -18.0% (Apr),
Housing prices in 20 US metropolitan areas were down a smaller amount than expected in July. On the year, prices were 15.4% lower compared to a 17.1% drop in June. Expectations were for a 16.3% decline for the month. The 10-city and 20-city composites posted their second consecutive monthly increases, both climbing 1.4%. The index showed that home prices rose in the second quarter compared to the first, the first quarterly increase in three years. In annual terms the second quarter posted a 14.9% decline compared to record 19.1% drop in the first quarter. Prices have bottomed out from their record lows seen to start the year, and are signaling that the real-estate crisis that triggered the worst recession since the 1930s is dissipating. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | ||
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For June
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -5.0%, pr. -5.6% (May), -6.8% (Apr), -7.3% (Mar),
Housing prices, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, saw an increase of 0.5% on the month in June, a second straight positive month. On the year prices were 5% lower, an improvement from May's 5.6%. The data, combined with today's S&P house price index shows that housing prices have bottomed out and are beginning to recover, though they have not come close to offsetting the drop in prices seen during the housing recession. Today's data also included quarterly figures, which saw prices down 0.7% in the second quarter, a slightly larger decline than the first quarter. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -17.1% | -17.8% | -18.1% | N/A | ||
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For May
10-City Index y/y: -16.8%, pr. -18.0%, -18.7%, -18.8% (Feb),
From the Release: "Data through May 2009, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved for the fourth consecutive month in 2009." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% | ||
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For May
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -5.6%, pr. -6.8% (Apr), -7.3% (Mar), -6.5% (Feb),
From the Release: "U.S. home prices rose 0.9 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.1 percent decline in April was revised to a 0.3 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in May, U.S. prices fell 5.6 percent. The U.S. index is 10.7 percent below its April 2007 peak. “Revisions and volatility of the monthly index make it hard to draw any conclusions, but the seasonally-adjusted HPI for the first five months of this year is up 0.3 percent or 0.7 percent on an annualized basis,” said FHFA Director James Lockhart." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -18.1% | -18.7% | -18.7% | N/A | ||
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For April
10-City Index y/y: -18.0%, pr. -18.7% R, -18.8% (Feb),
From the Release: "Data through April 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved. The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 18.0% and 18.1%, respectively, in April compared to the same month in 2008. These are improvements over their returns reported for March, down 18.7% for both indices. For the past three months, the 10-City and 20-City Composites have recorded an improvement in annual returns. Record annual declines were reported for both indices with their respective January data, -19.4% for the 10-City Composite and -19.0% for the 20-City Composite. " |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -0.3% | -1.4% | -1.1% | ||
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For April
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: -6.8%, pr. -7.3% (Mar), -6.5% (Feb), -6.3% (Jan),
From the Release: "U.S. home prices fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 1.1 percent decline in March was revised to a 1.4 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices fell 6.8 percent. The U.S. index is 11.2 percent below its April 2007 peak. Although monthly data are volatile, we may be starting to see signs of stabilization in prices for houses funded by conventional conforming loans, as the HPI is only down 0.3 percent for the first four months of the year,” said FHFA Director James B. Lockhart." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||
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For March
(s.a.)
HPI y/y: pr. -6.5% (Feb), -6.3% (Jan), -8.2% (Dec), -8.7% (Nov),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -18.7% | -18.3% | -18.7% | -18.6% | ||
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For March
"Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite" Provided by: Standard and Poor's Official Release: PDF
10-City Index y/y: -18.6%, pr. -18.8% (Feb), -19.4% (Jan),
-19.2% (Dec),
Home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas decreased 18.7% from March 2008, matching the annual decline seen in February. With the number of foreclosures remaining high, home prices continue to be pressured. That is having negative ramifications for household wealth and consumer spending. On the other hand, lower prices and very favorable mortgage rates are helping affordability conditions which is starting to show in stemming the slide in home sales. Higher home sales will be an important component in getting prices to stabilize and recover. |
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