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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 2.4% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for June
HPI y/y: -5.5%, pr. -6.2% (Apr), -7.3% (Mar), -9.1% (Feb),
From the Release: "Average asking prices of properties new to the market fell for the first time in 5 months, suffering a slight decrease of 0.4%. In spite of this hesitation from new sellers, this year’s price recovery still sees asking prices up 6.0% since January, fuelled by a shortage of saleable property and the equity-rich calling the bottom of the market. Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove comments: “For the equity-rich, 2009 has turned out to be the year of the property deal. Those with a good deposit and a stable job are now finding they can afford a better property than two years ago. This puts them in pole position to snap up the short supply of saleable property in the most popular areas. The south appears to be leading the way in terms of increased activity as it has a higher concentration of the mortgageable equity-rich, which conversely means property coming onto the market is in shorter supply as there are fewer forced sellers.” |
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| 9/21 | 10/19 | 11/16 | 12/14 | 1/18 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/19 | 5/17 | 6/21 | ||
| Actual | -1.0% | 1.0% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | -0.4% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | -2.3% | -1.0% | 1.0% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.8% | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -44.1% | -52.0% | -58.7% | -59.9% | ||
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For May
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices narrowed again in May. Although it remains well in negative territory, the latest reading of -44.1 represents the best result since November 2007. The May survey provides more evidence that activity in the housing market is continuing to pick up, albeit from historic lows. New buyer enquiries have now increased for seven months in a row; the net balance of surveyors seeing an increase rather than a decrease in buyer interest (compared with the preceding month) climbed in May to its best level since August 1999. The survey also contains more definitive signs that the rebound in enquiries is now feeding thorough into increased transactions. Newly agreed sales, measured on a net balance basis, remained comfortably in positive territory for the third consecutive month and there was a further rise in the average number of sales per surveyor."
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| 9/8 | 10/13 | 11/10 | 12/8 | 1/12 | 2/9 | 3/9 | 4/14 | 5/11 | 6/8 | ||
| Actual | -81.0% | -84.2% | -82.0% | -76.5% | -73.5% | -76.3% | -78.3% | -73.1% | -59.9% | -44.1% | |
| Forecast | -85.0% | -85.0% | -86.0% | -83.0% | -74.0% | -74.2% | -75.8% | -77.2% | -70.2% | -52.0% | |
| Previous | -83.1% | -81.0% | -84.2% | -81.0% | -75.8% | -73.9% | -76.6% | -78.1% | -72.1% | -58.7% | |
| Revised From | -83.9% | N/A | N/A | -81.8% | -76.5% | -73.5% | -76.6% | -78.3% | -73.1% | -59.9% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | |||
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Monthly Change for May
HPI y/y: -6.2%, pr. -7.3% (Mar), -9.1% (Feb), -7.3% (Jan), -6.3% (Dec),
From the Release: "This month sees a jump in new sellers’ average asking prices more reminiscent of a boom market. This is the largest May rise Rightmove has measured since 2003, when property was seeing annual rises in excess of 15%. However, sellers may be pricing at this level because they fear that their equity could be eroded to danger levels where they can’t find an affordable mortgage deal on their new purchase due to lenders’ stricter loan-to-value ratios. Even more disturbing for a recovery in volumes is that with just 61,000 new sellers this month compared to 135,000 in May last year, a substantial proportion are not willing or able to come to market at all. This is the lowest number of new properties coming to market that we have seen in May since 2003, when Rightmove advertised around 35% of homes rather than the 90% we advertise today. Many prospective sellers have become effectively immobile due to insufficient equity to fund their move." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -59.9% | -70.2% | -72.1% | -73.1% | ||
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For April
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices posted a marked improvement in April. At 59.9, the series remains deeply in negative territory but this still represents the best reading since January 2008. Significantly, the tentative signs of a pick-up in activity have become more broadly based over the past month. New buyer enquiries have now increased for six months in a row with the positive net balance in April climbing to its best level since August 1999. There is also more evidence that the higher level of buyer interest is feeding through into actual sales." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 0.9% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for April
HPI y/y: -7.3%, pr. -9.1% (Feb), -7.3% (Jan), -6.3% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov),
The UK Rightmove house price index increased 1.8% for the April period, the highest monthly increase since February 2008. The decline in the annual rate slowed from 9.1% in March to show a less severe 7.3%. The data is a good sign for the UK economy, as housing has been one of the major drags during this recession. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -73.1% | -77.2% | -78.1% | -78.3% | ||
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For March
From the Release: " The seasonally adjusted net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices recorded a modest improvement in March but at 73.1, it remains deeply in negative territory. The latest reading was, however, the best outcome since February 2008. Significantly, the tentative signs of a pick-up in activity have become more broadly based over New buyer enquiries have now increased for five consecutive months with the positive net balance in March climbing to its best level since September 2003. More importantly, there is now clear evidence that the higher level of buyer interest is feeding through into actual sales. Newly agreed sales, measured on a net balance basis, rose over the month as did the average sales per surveyor series (for the first time since the tail end of 2007)." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 1.2% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for February
HPI y/y: -9.0%, pr. -9.1% (Feb), -7.3% (Jan), -6.3% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov),
From the Release: "Unsurprisingly, the majority of prospective spring sellers are being deterred by the conditions attached to doing a deal in the current market. There is evidence of buyer appetite at around 25% below peak prices and this level of discount is likely to be a major factor preventing many aspiring sellers from coming to market. Numbers are down a dramatic 57%, with only 78,901 new sellers this month compared to 181,840 in the same month last year. In addition, those sellers who have marketed in the last 4 weeks are showing resistance to the new reality by starting at prices £1,918 (0.9%) higher than the previous month. This small increase in asking prices may also reflect estate agents having to compete for the limited numbers of good quality homes coming to the market. To win new instructions, agents are agreeing to vendors’ demands and marketing properties at what seem like unrealistically high prices for a short period of time. They then have to persuade vendors to reduce the price to the point at which buyer interest is going to be found. This not only wastes the valuable early period of marketing, but is also likely to lead to a lower eventual price, as buyers scent a price reduction and offer even less. Disappointingly too, the minority of buyers and sellers who are adjusting to the new market reality are finding that mortgage funding from the banking sector remains scarce, decreasing the odds of a speedier market recovery." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -78.3% | -75.8% | -76.6% | -76.6% | ||
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For February
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | -1.9% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for February
HPI y/y: -9.1%, pr. -7.3% (Jan), -6.3% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.9% (Oct),
From the Release: "A year ago, new sellers coming to the market could be forgiven for not foreseeing the strength of the downturn in market conditions and raising initial asking prices by a massive 3.2%. It could, therefore, be said that the New Year sellers of 2009, with customary spring optimism and time on their side, have shown considerable restraint by raising them a mere 1.2%. However, launching their properties onto the market at an average of £2,593 higher than the month before flies in the face of consumer sentiment. In the recent Rightmove Consumer Survey, 9 out of 10 potential homemovers clearly stated it was ‘a bad time to sell’. It also temporarily defies the expectation that prices have further to fall, though our analysis of this month’s other key statistics puts this rise into context and give further insights into the likely course of the housing market in 2009. The smaller than usual February rise has led to a substantial fall in the annual rate, with initial asking prices now 9.1% below those of a year ago, compared to 7.3% the previous month. This is the largest decrease that Rightmove has ever recorded. We forecast that monthly changes in asking prices will return to negative territory over the coming months, resulting in an overall fall of 10% during 2009." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -76.3% | -74.2% | -73.9% | -73.5% | ||
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For January
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -2.3% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for January
HPI y/y: -7.3%, pr. -6.3% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.9% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep) From the Release: "The rapid downturn and consequent fast-paced price falls continue this month, with a further fall of 1.9% in average asking prices. We forecast last month that prices were within 10% of the bottom of the market, so this substantial fall is consistent with the market bottoming out in the latter part of 2009. This is given further credence by a chronic lack of new supply both in the resale and new homes markets, which is at odds with both the 1990s UK housing downturn and the current experience of high unsold inventories in the US." Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove comments: “The speed with which prices have declined has been worrying, but it does mean we are potentially reaching the bottom sooner. One of the factors that will help to arrest price falls is a lack of property coming onto the market, resulting in lower inventory levels that align supply more closely with today’s restricted demand. The reticence of discretionary sellers to come to market and the relatively low number of forced sellers have seen new listing numbers plummet. Add to this the collapse in the supply of new homes from developers and a massive shift of unsold stock to the lettings market, and the result is a dramatic reduction in the over-supply that has been present since early 2008.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -73.5% | -74.0% | -75.8% | -76.5% | ||
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For December
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.3% | -2.9% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for December
HPI y/y: -6.3%, pr. -7.1% (Nov), -4.9% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -76.5% | -83.0% | -81.0% | -81.8% | ||
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For November
British housing prices continued to fall in November, though the RICS house price balance improved to -76.5 from -81.0. That was the highest level since February and indicates to some easing in the rate of decline though still points to a very depressed housing market. Completed sales per surveyor fell to 10.6 from 10.9, a fresh low for the series that began in 1978. Sales are down 55% on the year as the UK economy fell into recession amid a tightening of credit domestically and globally.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.9% | 1.0% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for November
HPI y/y: -7.1%, pr. -4.9% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep) November house prices in the UK were down 2.9% on the month, and a record 7.1% in annual terms. The monthly drop was the biggest since December of 2007. The government has attempted to try and stimulate lending by supporting the banking system and slashing interest rates, but prices may have to come down further in order for potential buyers to start buying property. The Bank of England has cut rates to 3%, which is a 63-year low, and is expected to continue cutting rates in order to head off this period of recession. The Pound's value has been steadily plummeting since it became clear the Bank was going to follow this path, and should continue to be pressured as long as interest rates keep going down.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -82.0% | -86.0% | -84.2% | N/A | ||
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For October
On a year-to-year basis, house prices declined less than expected in October, but remained pressured due to the large inventory of unsold homes according the RICS. Also, completed sales per surveyor in the last three months fell to the lowest level (10.9) since records began in 1978. Housing indicators in general point to futher decline in prices and activity, but on the bright side some housing indicators such as new buyer enquiries are pointing to a deceleration in the drop of activity during Q2 and Q3. In the near term though, the housing market is stuck in this anemic gear and will need until at least the summer of next year for the interest rate cuts to take effect.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | -1.0% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for October
HPI y/y: -4.9%, pr. -3.3% From the Release: "The downward trend in asking prices continues, with new sellers now marketing at 4.9% less than 12 months ago, the largest year-on-year fall ever recorded by Rightmove. At the same time, “property vultures” are circling, looking harder and longer for a good deal. Old habits associated with ten years of a rising market remain however despite a severe downturn in property sales volumes. New sellers increased their asking prices by 1% compared to last month, though the price rise was far less pronounced than the October norm of circa 2% seen in more buoyant years. This continued the tradition of an autumn bounce in asking prices as, in spite of financial mayhem, some sellers are tempted to think their own residence is more desirable than its competition. Estate agents are also competing for scarce additional stock on the off chance it will sell and boost revenues before Christmas. However, all should note that for the first time, this month sees all regions of the country slipping into negative territory compared to a year ago." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -84.2% | -85.0% | -81.0% | N/A | ||
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For September
The RICS house price balance deteriorated to show -84.2% of surveyors saying house prices fell in September. Also, the indicators sales per surveyor figure fell to 11.5, the lowest since the survey was introduced in 1978. Transactions are being hampered by weak lending by reluctant banks, which are in the midst of the financial crisis. Yesterday, the UK government unveiled a plan to inject capital into banks in exchange for shares in order to boost lending. The government hopes to see mortgage lending return to its levels in 2007, which saw an average of 104,000 mortgages approved. This past August, banks approved a meager 32,000 home loans. With the economy stalling, those wanting to purchase homes may be in a weaker position, so it remains to be seen how effective the plan is. So far it has been met with warm reception from stock markets.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -2.3% | N/A | |||
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Monthly Change for September
HPI y/y: -3.3% pr. -4.8% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -81.0% | -85.0% | -83.1% | -83.9% | ||
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For August
The RICS House Price Balance showed that the number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 81% in August. That compares to 83.1% in July. The average sales per respondent in the past 3 months fell to 12.7, the least since the survey began in 1978. There's no way to sugar coat the fact that the UK housing market continues to slump and prices drop. The index measure the breadth of price declines not the depth. The Halifax Bank of Scotland House Price Index showed prices down 1.8% in August and 10.9% lower on the year. Mortgage lending has been anemic, and consumer confidence has dropped to record lows as the economy heads towards a possible recession. The GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have seen significant falls in August. The GBP/USD slid from 2.00 to 1.75 or almost 2,500 pips in the month alone. Traders are pricing in the weak economy and the chances that the Bank of England will be forces to lower rates. As growth slows, inflation should follow. If inflation slows then the MPC may have to ease rates to jump start the housing sector and wary consumers. |
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