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Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Building Permits

Most Recent Release

July
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.09M 0.96M 0.98M 0.97
Annualized figure for June
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: 11.6%, pr. -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits rose 11.6% for June, climbing to 1.091 million units. Similar to the surprising increase in housing starts data gains were led by the Northeast region and more specifically a change to construction codes in New York City, which seem to have inflated the data. Excluding the Northeast, permits rose 0.7%. The data seems to be an outlier compared to the recent trend. 

Table of Past Data

10/1711/2012/181/172/203/184/165/166/177/17
Actual1.22M1.18M1.15M1.07M1.05M0.98M0.93M978K970K1.09M
Forecast1.29M1.20M1.15M1.14M1.05M1.02M0.97M910K960K0.96M
Previous1.32M1.26M1.18M1.16M1.08M1.06M0.98M928K978K0.98M
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A1.07MN/AN/AN/AN/A0.97

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Past Releases

June
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
970K 960K 978K N/A
Annualized figure for May
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -1.3%, pr. 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

See "Housing Starts" comment above.

May
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
978K 910K 928K N/A

Annualized figure for April
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: 4.9%, pr. -5.8%

Building permits increased 4.9% in April compared to March, registering an annual pace of 978K. The figure surprised on the upside and reflected gains in both single and multifamily units. Housing starts were up as well, though growth there was led by multifamily units only. Despite lower interest rates from the Fed, housing has been stuck as home-buyers are having a harder time financing loans, and a slowing economy is sapping jobs and confidence in the country. Housing prices continue to fall and even yesterday's NAHB-Wells Fargo House Price Index declined to 19 from 20. One good report does not break a trend.

April
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.93M 0.97M 0.98M N/A

Annualized figure for March
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -5.8%

Building permits declined 5.8% to an annualized pace of 927,000, the lowest since April 1991. In the last 12 months, permits are down 40.9%, the largest 12-month drop in sixteen years. As a leading indicator for future construction, the data points to the the housing recession continuing throughout 2008.

March
18th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.98M 1.02M 1.06M N/A

Annualized figure for February
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building permits declined to a 16 year low, continuing its downtrend that has brought it down from a pace of 1.41 million in June. Since permits are an indicator of future construction, there is no sign that the housing recession is close to bottoming out. There is a large supply of unsold new homes that need to be worked off before new construction will begin to recover.  

February
20th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.05M 1.05M 1.08M 1.07M

Annualized figure for January
Provided by: Department of Commerce

"Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,048,000. This is 3.0 percent (±1.5%) below the revised December rate of 1,080,000 and is 33.1 percent (±1.4%) below the revised January 2007 estimate of 1,566,000."

Building Permits fell 3% for the January period, while Housing Starts stayed near 17-year lows. Building Permits are a forward looking indicator as it measures future construction. The housing recession will continue to weigh on the economy this year. 

January
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.07M 1.14M 1.16M N/A
For December.
Official Release from Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -8.1%, consensus 2.6%, pr. -0.7%.

Building permits, a leading indicator to future housing starts, fell 8.1% in December. The data is a signal that the housing recession has not come to a bottom, and continues to deepen. Less new homes, lowers mortgage and financial sectors, not to mention retailers that sell furnishings for homes.
December
18th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.15M 1.15M 1.18M N/A
For November.
Official Release from Commerce Department (.pdf)

Building permits, a sign of future construction, slid to a 14 year low. There is currently an oversupply of homes for sale, and therefore construction of new homes continues to slump.
November
20th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.18M 1.20M 1.26M N/A
For October.
October
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.22M 1.29M 1.32M N/A
For September.

Building permits fell by 7.3%, reported the Commerce Department.

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