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Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Mortgage Approvals (BOE)

Most Recent Release

June
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42K 52K 58K N/A

For May
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 5.4B, forecast 6.0B, pr. 6.4B (Apr), 6.7B (Mar)

Mortgage approvals fell to a fresh record low of 42K in May, down about a quarter from April's 58K. The government began keeping track of the day in 1999. Net mortgage lending grew by £5.4B, also a sharp decline from last month. Banks and building societies continue to tighten their lending standards, withdrawing some mortgage products, as they face troubled financing for credit. With consumers more cautious as well, the housing market has experienced a dearth of potential buyers. Prices for homes have been coming down as a result, putting less money to spend into the pockets of home sellers.  

Table of Past Data

10/110/2911/291/41/302/294/24/296/26/30
Actual109K102K88K83K73K74K73K64K58K42K
Forecast110K103K96K84K79K70K72K66K64K52K
Previous115K108K100K89K81K72K74K72K64K58K
Revised FromN/AN/A102K88K83K73KN/A73KN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Mortgage Approvals (BBA)

Most Recent Release

July
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
21.1K 28.0K N/A

For June
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)
Official Release: PDF

UK banks approved 21,100 mortgages in June, another poor month which sets a record low for the series that started in 2001. In September mortgages were being approved at a 50K level. The 8 months since then have seen a clear downward trend. The financial storm that started with defaulting US sub-prime mortgages has paralyzed UK lending. The effects can be seen in the rest of the UK economy as activity in manufacturing and services is already showing contraction. Those underlying fundamentals have been reflected in the dropping value of the Pound the last several months.

Today, the Bank of England meeting minutes gave the Pound a boost as the Committee was split 3 ways, with one member, Besley, advocating for a rate hike.  

From the Release (BBA statistics director, David Dooks): “Another record low number of mortgages approved by the banks for house purchase means that the whole market is likely to be at its least active since the early 1990’s. However, even in this rapidly slowing market, net lending has still grown by 12% over the past year and there continue to be significant numbers of people remortgaging with the banks. The pressure on household finances is being reflected in subdued consumer borrowing, with spending on cards lower than of late and borrowing on personal loans and overdrafts being comparatively weak.”

Table of Past Data

10/2511/2312/271/242/253/274/235/276/247/23
Actual52.7K44.1K44.8K42.1K44.3K43.9K35.4K38.7K28.0K21.1K
Forecast60.0K41.0K
Previous61.1K54.0K44.1K43.9K42.3K43.7K43.1K35.5K34.8K28.0K
Revised FromN/A52.7KN/A44.8KN/A44.3K43.9K35.4K38.7kN/A

Past Releases

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
June
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
28.0K 34.8K 38.7k

For May
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "May’s mortgage lending was much weaker than April and a record low number of house purchase approvals means the subdued picture will continue. Consumer credit rose, largely reflecting lower credit card repayments and, after April’s strong inflow, personal deposit growth was weaker in May. 

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data: “Measures of mortgage activity were lower in May as a result of tighter lending criteria and economic pressures on households. Only remortgaging business is holding up, where people need or want to take advantage of deals with other lenders. People spent more on credit cards, but repayment levels were lower than expected in May and after April’s busy month with people putting money into ISAs, personal deposits were not as strong.”

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
June
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
58K 64K 64K N/A

For April
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 6.4B, forecast 6.8B, pr. 6.7B

Mortgage lending dropped in April, with 58,000 new loans granted by banks in April, compared to 64,000 new loans in March. Its the lowest level in at least 9 years (the series begain in 1999). Lenders are limiting the amount of mortgages as they try and shore up their balance sheets in response to the credit crunch. Despite the poor news on housing, the central bank is concerned about inflation and is expected to hold rates at 5% when it meets on Friday. The 3 previous cuts have not been passed on to consumers. 

A second release showed manufacturing slowing to a flat level and poor news from the financial sector which caused losses in stocks, seriously pressured the Pound to start the week. Bradford & Bingley Plc, the UK's biggest mortgage lender to landlords, said it will raise more capital because of widening bad-debt provisions. Thew news reignited fears about the health of the banking sector.

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
May
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
38.7K 35.5K 35.4K

For April
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)
Official Release: PDF 

Approvals for house purchases continued to e well down on the same period in 2007. April's 38,704 mortgage approvals is 39.4% lower than April of 2007. The figure is slightly higher than the March period. Approvals for re-mortgaging were strong in April. Banks approved 74,722 re-mortgages an increase of 14,300 on last month and 20.3% higher than April 2007. 

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
April
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
64K 66K 72K 73K

For March
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 6.9B, forecast 7.2B, pr. 7.4B

UK mortgage approvals fell in March to the lowest level in at least 9 years (data began being compiled in 1999). Net mortgage lending amounted to 6.9B pounds, the lowest in 3 years. The figures from the Bank of England adds to others releases this month that point to a logjam in terms of mortgage lending as banks limit lending in order to cope with tight conditions in the credit-market. The Bank has stepped in and offered to swap government bonds for mortgage securities in order to bolster confidence in the banking system and to jump-start the home-loans market. It will remain to be seen if the plan by the Bank will have the desired affect.

The Pound fell heavily following the release as investors believe the Bank of England will have to continue lowering rates in order to bolster the housing market and the overall economy, despite high inflation.

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
April
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.4K 43.1K 43.9K

For March
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)

The UK housing sector continues to struggle. Today, mortgage approval data sunk to a new record low (since records began being kept in 1997) for March. Approvals for house purchases fell to 35,417. Net mortgage lending fell to £5.1 billion from £5.5 billion in February. The Bank of England was right in trying to ease lending conditions to remedy this situation, but so far the markets have not come on board in thinking that the Bank's plan will solve the impasse in mortgage lending.

The Pound weakened during the session and gave back most of its gains from yesterday

GBP/USD 

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
April
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
73K 72K 74K N/A

For February
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 7.4B, pr. 7.4B

Mortgage approvals and net mortgage lending remained flat, while consumer appetite for debt (Consumer Lending) rose to its highest level in five months. Both the mortgage approvals and net mortgage lending are far off their February 2007 levels.

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
March
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43.9K 43.7K 44.3K

For February
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)

BBA Mortgage Approvals have been mired in the mid 40K level for the last 4 months (Oct '07 - Jan '08), almost half the pace of mid to high 70K range approved between March and June of 2007.

February's level remained steady with last months data, registering 43.9K approvals.  

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
74K 70K 72K 73K

For December
Provided by the Bank of England - Inside "Lending to Individuals - Table B"

"The numbers of loans approved for house purchase (74,000), remortgaging (119,000) and for other purposes (60,000) were all higher than in December"

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
February
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.3K 42.3K N/A

For January

Offical Release from: The British Bankers' Association (BBA)

Remortgaging was strong in January pushing up total mortgage approvals. However, unsecured lending remained low. BBA statistics director, David Dooks comments:

"Although house prices and new loans for house purchase, appear to be subdued as the housing market slows, the strength of remortgaging would suggest competition for mortgage business and switching remains high."

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
January
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
73K 79K 81K 83K

For December
Provided by the Bank of England - Inside "Lending to Individuals - Table B"

Lenders granted 73,000 loans for house purchases during December, declining from the 81,000 handed out in November. It's the lowest level since records began in 1999. Banks have tightened their lending as a result of the credit conditions created after the subprime mortgage market collapse in the US. If Britons, who are already laden with record debt,  cannot get lending then consumer spending and the housing market will suffer. The central bank will most likely act to remedy this situation by lowering interest rates in their meeting on Feb 7th.

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
January
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42.1K 43.9K 44.8K

For December

Release from British Banker's Association

UK Mortgage approvals in December fell to the lowest level since records began. It is far below the 6-month average of 53,781. Remorgaging activity picked up to 62,771 close to the 63, 179 6-month average.

Mortgage lending came in steady at £4.7 billion, although below the 6-month running average.

BBA statistics director David Dooks comments:
“Mortgage lending weakened notably in the second half of 2007 as the credit crunch impacted on banks’ ability to lend. At the same time, demand for mortgages also softened in the face of increased borrowing costs and lower disposable income. The combination of these factors is resulting in the marked market slowdown and weakness in house prices we are now seeing.

Reports of high street sales over the Christmas period were mixed, but our figures show consumer borrowing to have been muted in December.”

 

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
83K 84K 89K 88K
For November
Release from Bank of England

UK's central bank figures on lending revealed a drop in mortgage approvals, as well as the value of mortgage approvals, which fell to £11.4 billion from £12.4 billion in October. This has been steadily dropping below the 6-month average of 106K. UK's housing market comes second the US's in regards of being pressured and will be watched closely by policy makers.

Those re-mortgaging increased to 95K from 88K in October.
Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
December
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.8K 41.0K 44.1K N/A
For November.
Release from British Banker's Association Statistics Release .pdf

Home mortgage approvals edged up slightly in November, but stayed well below the 6-month average of 57.3K. The statistics director David Dooks noted noted that "mortgage activity is notably lower than this time last year and, as we expected, lending has begun to slow down."

Also figures showed the lowest lending growth since 2005, adding only £4.3 billion as the six-month average is £5.5 billion. "Tighter household finances and uncertainty in the financial markets are driving consumer behaviour." according to BBA.
Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
November
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
88K 96K 100K 102K
For October.

Number of loans approved for house purchase hit the lowest level since February of 2005. The housing market continues to soften in the UK as house prices are also dropping. Along with lower approvals, mortgage lending (7.3 billion GBP)also rose at a tepid pace in October.
Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
November
23rd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.1K 54.0K 52.7K
Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
October
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
102K 103K 108K N/A
For September

The total number of loans approved for house purchase was lower than in August. However, remortgaging (101K), and other purposes(67.0K were higher.
Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
October
25th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.7K 60.0K 61.1K N/A
For September.
Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
October
1st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
109K 110K 115K N/A
For August.

With interest rates at a 6 year high, and credit costs rising, Mortgage Approvals cooled in August. There were 109K new loans for house purchases, which is the lowest level since April.

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