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Indicator Digest

Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Mortgage Approvals (BOE)

Most Recent Release

March
1st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.2K 49K 59K N/A

For January
Provided by Bank of England
Previous Release: HTML PDF

Net Mortg. Lend.: £1.21.5B, pr. £1.2, £1.6B, £0.9B (Oct),
£0.9B (Sep), £1.0B (Aug), -£0.4B (Jul), £0.3B (Jun), £0.3B (May)

Table of Past Data

6/26/297/299/19/2910/2911/301/42/13/1
Actual43K43K48K50K52K56K57K61K59K48.2K
Forecast41K46K48K51K51K54K59K58K62K49K
Previous39K43K43K48K52K53K56K57K60K59K
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A50K52KN/AN/A61KN/A

Secondary Indicator: Mortgage Approvals (BBA)

Most Recent Release

February
23rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.1K 45.3K 45.9K N/A

For January
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £2.7B, pr. £3.5B (Dec), £3.2B (Nov),
£3.1B (Oct), £3.1B (Sep), £2.8B (Aug), £1.6B (Jul), £2.2B (Jun),
£2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan)

From the Release: "Mortgage lending in January was relatively weak, showing a reaction to the inflated December market and the adverse weather conditions which impacted on activity. Consumer credit declined further but personal deposits held up."

Table of Past Data

4/276/237/238/259/2310/2311/2412/231/262/23
Actual26.1K31.1K35.2K38.2K38.1K42.1K42.2K44.7K45.9K35.1K
Forecast29.2K29.0K32.3K37.8K41.1K40.0K44.0K43.3K46.0K45.3K
Previous28.2K27.7K31.9K35.5K38.2K38.1K42.1K42.6K44.7K45.9K
Revised FromN/AN/A31.2K35.2KN/AN/AN/A42.2N/AN/A

Past Releases

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
February
1st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
59K 62K 60K 61K

For December
Provided by Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Net Mortg. Lend.: £1.2B, forecast £1.6B, pr. £1.6B, £0.9B (Oct),
£0.9B (Sep), £1.0B (Aug), -£0.4B (Jul), £0.3B (Jun), £0.3B (May)

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
January
26th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
45.9K 46.0K 44.7K N/A

For December
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £3.5B, pr. £3.2B (Nov), £3.1B (Oct), £3.1B (Sep),
£2.8B (Aug), £1.6B (Jul), £2.2B (Jun), £2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr),
£3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov)

From the Release: "Mortgage lending strengthened slightly in December, with gross lending inflated by some borrowers pushing through purchases ahead of the end of stamp duty relief. Consumer credit was weak, in line with weak retail sales volumes, but savings recovered from a weak November figure, to an above-trend rise.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data: The high street banks continued to lend substantial amounts in the weaker mortgage arket of 2009 approving more than 440,000 loans for house purchase. Their share of gross ending went up from a historical level of about two-thirds to three-quarters, due to specialist enders largely withdrawing from the market and building society finance contracting. Households’ unsecured borrowing contracted throughout the year, particularly on personal oans. After paying down debt, people sought to build up their savings.”"

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
January
4th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
61K 58K 57K N/A
For November
Provided by the Bank of England
Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
December
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.7K 43.3K 42.6K 42.2

For November
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £3.2B, pr. £3.1B (Oct), £3.1B (Sep), £2.8B (Aug),
£1.6B (Jul), £2.2B (Jun), £2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar),
£3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct)

From the Release: "BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data: “Household priorities are showing up in the November figures. Demand for new personal loans was weak and people are paying off debt or building savings in response to economic circumstances. In the housing sector, prices have continued to edge up and approvals for house purchase are now back at a similar level to that of two years ago. Re-mortgaging activity continues to run at a low level as borrowers revert to low standard variable rates or trackers from maturing fixed rate loans. Lending to non-financial companies ticked up slightly in November, having declined in each of the previous two months.” 

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
November
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
57K 59K 56K N/A

For October
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage approvals climbed to their highest level in 1 1/2 years in October, to 57.3K compared with 56.2K in September. That was the most since March 2008, though the figure did meet expectations of an even bigger increase. The UK economy is still looking to exit its recession as growth remained negative in the 3rd quarter. The housing sector, though rebounding, is still going to be pressured by rising unemployment which can limit how much people can pay for homes. A lack of supply of homes however has been supporting prices as was demonstrated in yesterday's Hometrack house price index which gained for a 4th straight month.

Net mortgage lending rose by 922 million pounds in October, compared with 898 million pounds in the previous month, though net consumer credit fell by 579 million pounds. That shows that the UK consumer is not interested in taking on new debt and is instead paying off debts and saving. 

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
November
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42.2K 44.0K 42.1K N/A

For October
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £3.1B, pr. £3.1B (Sep), £2.8B (Aug), £1.6B (Jul),
£2.2B (Jun), £2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb),
£2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep)

From the Release: "New mortgage lending and house purchase approvals increased slightly as mortgage lending continued to grow from the low levels at the end of 2008. In contrast, consumer credit continued to be weak and lending to non-financial corporates fell.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data: "The longer it takes to emerge from recession, the longer we will see households and businesses continue to borrow with caution. The banks' mortgage lending, still growing by more than 4% a year, shows one aspect of consumer behaviour but unsecured borrowing is subdued and people are building up deposits.

"A mixture of lower business demand, alternative corporate funding and tighter lending conditions, all giving rise to the on-going contraction in lending to non-financial companies, is a reflection of current market conditions."

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
October
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
56K 54K 53K 52K

For September
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage approvals in the UK rose to 56,215 in September, a figure that was better than expected. It adds evidence that the housing sector continues to recover from its deep downturn during the recession. Housing prices have begun to recover, and lending conditions seem to be easing. However, with GDP still negative in the 3rd quarter, unemployment high, and central bank policy makers debating whether to expand their 175 billion pound program of buying bonds to fight the recession, there are some concerns that the housing market may retrench. 

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
October
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42.1K 40.0K 38.1K N/A

For September
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Previous Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: pr. £2.8B (Aug), £1.6B (Jul), £2.2B R- (Jun),
£2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan),
£2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep), £2.1B (Aug)

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
September
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52K 51K 52K 50K

For August
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage approvals remained around their level from last month during August. There were 52,317 approvals, down slightly from an upwardly revised 52,404 in July. That marks the first time that approvals have declined in 10 months, and could add to growing evidence that the recent revival in the property market may have reached a plateau. Housing market activity has stabilized at levels well above the very low levels seen last year, though a weak economy and limited capacity to lend will act to constrict further improvement. 

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
September
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
38.1K 41.1K 38.2K N/A

For August
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £2.8B, pr. £1.6B (Jul), £2.2B R- (Jun), £2.3B (May),
£2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec),
£2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep), £2.1B (Aug)

From the Release: "The main high street banks' mortgage lending has stabilised in a market where other lenders are largely inactive. Loans approved for house purchase have recovered to early-2008 levels, but low levels of customer demand and a limited number of properties coming onto the market will continue to moderate lending. In reaction to the economic conditions, consumers appear to be building up their savings and controlling their appetite for unsecured borrowing."

Lending to a range of company sectors expanded in August, with the manufacturing and construction sectors the only areas showing net repayments. In the latter case, this continues the sector's steady contraction in borrowing seen throughout this year."

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
September
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50K 51K 48K N/A

For July
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage approvals improved for a sixth straight month in July, with the number of loans rising to 50,123. Despite the better figure, overall lending numbers for the month disappointed forecasts, taking a step back as households and consumers decided to pay back debt instead of taking on new loans.  

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
August
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
38.2K 37.8K 35.5K 35.2K

For July
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £1.6B, pr. £2.2B R- (Jun), £2.3B (May),
£2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec),
£2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep), £2.1B (Aug), £4.3B (Jul)

Though new mortgage approvals rose to a pace of 38.2K in July, mortgage lending remained very weak. Banks lent a seasonally adjusted 1.6 billion pounds in July, a nine-year low and lending to non-financial companies slumped. A year earlier lending grew 3.7 billion pounds. Bank lending to non-financial firms fell 4.1 billion pounds, compared with a 0.3 billion pound drop in June. That was the steepest decline in three years and shows that the worries by the Bank of England regarding weak lending from banks was warranted. Approvals did rise above their year-earlier levels for the 3rd straight month, but new lending was being offset by repayments.

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
July
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48K 48K 43K N/A

For June
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Net Mortg. Lend.: £0.3B pr. £0.3B (May), £1.0B (Apr), £0.8B (Mar),
£1.5B (Feb), £1.1B (Jan), £1.9B (Dec), £0.7B (Nov), £0.5B (Oct),
£1.5B (Sep), -£0.7B (Aug), £3.2B (Jul), £3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr)

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
July
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.2K 32.3K 31.9K 31.2K

For June
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £2.6B pr. £2.3B (May), £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar),
£3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct),
£3.6B (Sep), £2.1B (Aug), £4.3B (Jul)

From the Release: "BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data:

"Numbers of new home loans approved by the high street banks are recovering from the very low level last November and so far this year, gross mortgage lending has topped £50bn. After repayments and redemptions, the banks' net rise in mortgage lending of £18bn in the first six months is in sharp contrast to lending by the rest of the market, which is still contracting. People are showing little appetite for unsecured borrowing and are generally keeping more money in their accounts.

"Borrowing by non-financial companies continues to be weak, either because funds raised on capital markets are replacing bank borrowing or because companies are seeking to withstand the recession by reducing their debt".

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
June
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43K 46K 43K N/A

For May
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Net Mortg. Lend.: £0.3B pr. £1.0B (Apr), £0.8B (Mar), £1.5B (Feb),
£1.1B (Jan), £1.9B (Dec), £0.7B (Nov), £0.5B (Oct), £1.5B (Sep),
-£0.7B (Aug), £3.2B (Jul), £3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr)

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
June
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
31.1K 29.0K 27.7K N/A

For May
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £2.3B pr. £2.7B (Apr), £3.9B (Mar), £3.9B (Feb),
£2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec), £2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep),
£2.1B (Aug), £4.3B (Jul)

From the Release: " The banks' net mortgage lending of £2.3bn was the weakest monthly rise since early 2001, although mortgage approvals continue to increase.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data: "Steady monthly increases since last November have seen the number of loans approved for house purchase recover to levels seen in early 2008, although gross and net mortgage lending show a subdued wider mortgage picture. However, unlike much of the mortgage market, the high street banks are still seeing lending growth and improved mortgage availability is reflected in higher average loan approval values.

"Consumers' borrowing appetite remains weak, reflecting uncertainty over household circumstances, so credit growth is negligible and spending activity on credit cards is down on this time last year. Lending to non financial companies was little changed overall in May."

Mortgage Approvals (BOE)
June
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43K 41K 39K N/A

For April
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: HTML PDF

Net Mortg. Lend.: £1.0B pr. £0.8B (Mar), £1.5B (Feb), £1.1B (Jan),
£1.9B (Dec), £0.7B (Nov), £0.5B (Oct), £1.5B (Sep), -£0.7B (Aug), £3.2B (Jul),
£3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr)

Mortgage Approvals (BBA)
April
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
26.1K 29.2K 28.2K N/A

For March
Provided by: British Bankers Association
Official Release: HTML PDF

Mortgage Lending: £3.7B, pr. £3.9B (Feb), £2.9B (Jan), £2.9B (Dec),
£2.9B (Nov), £3.3B (Oct), £3.6B (Sep), £2.1B (Aug), 4.3B (Jul), £4.3B (Jun)

From the Release: " All measures of the banks' mortgage lending in March were marginally weaker than in February. Overall consumer credit was little changed and personal deposits remained weak. Lending to non-financial companies fell by about £1.0 billion, largely reflecting the unwinding of takeover finance.

Approvals for house purchase fell slightly in March and were some 25% lower than in March 2008. Re-mortgaging approvals declined slightly as borrowers continued to revert to standard variable rates rather than moving to new fixed rate products."