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Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Building Approvals

Most Recent Release

September
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.7% -1.0% -2.3% N/A

For August m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: -8.6%, forecast -4.5%, pr. -3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun),
-0.4% (May), 5.2% (Apr)

Australian building approvals were down 3.7% in August compared to July and registered an 8.6% drop compared to a year ago. Both of those numbers showed bigger falls than was expected by economists. The weaker figures reflect continued investor caution due to high interest rates and low residential yields. That should remain true as long as the financial turmoil remains. Traders are pricing in a 50 point basis cut when the RBA meets next Tuesday.

Table of Past Data

1/72/43/54/64/306/27/17/299/19/29
Actual8.9%-16.0%1.9%0.1%-5.7%7.8%-6.5%-0.7%-2.3%-3.7%
Forecast0.0%-3.8%5.5%0.0%-0.4%-0.9%-3.3%1.0%0.3%-1.0%
Previous-3.6%8.9%-16.0%1.9%-0.8%-5.5%5.4%-7.2%2.2%-2.3%
Revised From-2.8%N/AN/AN/A0.1%-5.7%7.8%-6.5%-0.7%N/A

Secondary Indicator: Home Loans m/m

Most Recent Release

October
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.2% -1.0% -0.2% N/A

For August
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

The number of home loans approved in Australia fell by 2.2% to 48,903 in August - a seven year low. The number of approvals is down 27% since January, when it reached 67,126. Demand for home loans is down as the economy heads lower, there is an increase in unemployment in sectors not associated with exports, and interest rates were still high. Weak demand supports the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by a full 1% in Monday's meeting, as the bank tries to ease borrowing costs during the most recent and most severe bout of credit crisis. The rate reduction caused Australia's four largest banks to cut their standard variable home loan rates by 80 basis points. 

The RBA followed up its bold interest rate cut by expanding its market operations by allowing banks and other financial institutions to deposit residential mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed commercial paper in exchange for collateral. This move should try and help unfreeze credit markets in the country. Credit provided by banks and financial institutions rose a meager 0.4% in August, the smallest increase in 22 years.   

Table of Past Data

1/152/103/104/135/116/97/88/59/810/7
Actual4.0%0.1%2.3%-5.9%-6.1%-3.0%-7.9%-3.7%-0.2%-2.2%
Forecast0.9%-0.9%0.9%0.5%-0.8%-2.0%-2.0%-2.1%0.0%-1.0%
Previous-0.7%4.0%1.1%2.3%-6.8%-5.7%-4.2%-6.9%-3.7%-0.2%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A-5.9%-6.1%-3.0-7.9N/AN/A

Past Releases

Home Loans m/m
September
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.0% -3.7% N/A

For July
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals for home loans declined 0.2% in July, slightly below the forecast of flat growth. In June approvals declined by a much larger 3.7%, though today's negative result is the now the 6th straight month that approvals have dropped. The central bank lowered rates to 7.00% from 7.25%, in a move to make monetary policy less restrictive. It was the first time the RBA has lowered rates in nearly 7 years. With the economy cooling as domestic demand decreases, the bank expects inflation to moderate. 

Governor Glenn Stevens signaled that the RBA was going to lower rates, in its statement following the August 5th meeting. Since then the AUD/USD slid from 0.9150 to 0.8075, a move of 1000 pips. Only a couple of weeks earlier, on July 15th, the AUD/USD hit a 24-year high near 0.9847. The slide from that high is even more dramatic, amounting to almost 1750 pips in about two months time. 

Building Approvals
September
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.3% 0.3% 2.2% -0.7%

For July m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: -3.7%, forecast -6.4%, pr. -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May),
5.2% (Apr)

Building permits declined after June's data was revised up. This continues a trend of decline that is due to toughened lendng standards and higher market interest rates. The RBA's rate cuts in part is due to a struggling housing market. The problems are not as deep as that of the US and UK. The difference though in Austraia is that there is no excessive inventory. In fact the growing poulation calls for more construction and home loans. 

Home Loans m/m
August
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.7% -2.1% -6.9% -7.9

For June
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Home Loans y/y pr. -3.6%

The number of home-loan approvals fell to a four-year low in June, declining 3.7% from May. It seems that the Australian housing sector is catching the same bug already afflicting the US and the UK. Banks are cutting back on lending in 2008, and consumers, racked by high borrowing costs are unable to get financing that meets their terms. Prices have started backtracking. On Sunday, the quarterly house price index showed a 0.3% decline, the first in nearly 3 years. With the economy entering a period of moderation in growth, housing activity will only be pressured further. A weaker housing market will work the other way as well, as consumers already under siege from higher energy and food costs may cut back spending in the face of withering prospects for selling their homes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has already signaled that it will move to lower rates, which is pressuring the Aussie as it continues its slide vs the US Dollar. In the last 10 sessions the pair has declined from 0.9800 to 0.9100.

Building Approvals
July
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% 1.0% -7.2% -6.5%

For June m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: -7.8%, forecast -4.1%, pr. -0.4% r (May), 5.2% (Apr)

Home Loans m/m
July
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.9% -2.0% -4.2% -3.0

For May
Home Loans y/y -3.6%
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Home loans had the biggest drop in 8 years, to 52,006 in May. This is below the trend estimate of 54,738. Construction declined by 5.0%, purchases of new dwellings fell -13.5%, and purchases of established dwellings dropped 8.0%. High borrowing costs are putting a damper on the housing market which has been pressured since the beginning of the year. From the release

The number of owner occupied housing commitments (seasonally adjusted) decreased 7.9% (down 4,478) in May 2008 compared with April 2008, following a revised decrease of 4.2% in April 2008. Decreases were recorded in the purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing (down 2,174, 7.0%), refinancing of established dwellings (down 1,812, 9.6%), purchase of new dwellings (down 261, 13.5%) and construction of dwellings (down 231, 5.0%). The trend estimates for the total number of owner occupied housing commitments decreased 4.2% in May 2008.
Building Approvals
July
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.5% -3.3% 5.4% 7.8%

For May m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: 0.2%, forecast 7.2%, pr. 5.2% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar)

Australia's home approvals declined 6.5% on the month and are up 0.2% on the year. Approvals have been down 4 of the first five months of the year, as high interest rates put a clamp on investment projects such as homes. A bout of inflation has kept the Bank on the offensive this year, despite signs the economy may be softening. A slowdown in demand may help alleviate some of the price pressures the economy has seen recently. Lending to consumers and businesses by banks and other financial institutions has slowed this year.

Home Loans m/m
June
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.0% -2.0% -5.7% -6.1%

For April
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Australian home-loan approvals fell for a third straight month, with homebuyers becoming more cautious about their purchases with interest rates at a 12-year high, and the conomic situation looking less uncertain. The 3% decline was a bigger drop thatn economists had forecast. The AUstralian economy has been seeing a slowdown in dmeand, but not in inflation, and the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor signaled that interst rates may go up if demand rebounds continuing to stoke inflation. 

 

Building Approvals
June
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% -0.9% -5.5% -5.7%

For April m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: 5.2%, forecast -3.3%, pr. 0.7%

Building approvals saw a large jump for April, surprising forecasts on the upside. March's approvals were a revised -5.5%. It was the first increase in 5 months, as demand for housing picked up. The news adds some positive news to the Australian economy which seemed to be heading for a slowdown according to recent data such as retail sales and manufacturing. The increase in approvals means the market for housing has some interest, and that the economy may be performing well despite 12-year high interest rates of 7.25%. 

Home Loans m/m
May
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.1% -0.8% -6.8% -5.9%

For March
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Permits for owner occupied housing fell 6.1% in March after a upwardly revised 6.8% drop in February. The seasonally adjusted total of 59,371 permits from February to March values 14,224 billion AUD, a 4.4% decline from the previous month. The RBA acknowledges a moderation in housing as well as the general economy. So far, although signs point to declining demand and worsening consumer and business confidence, a resilient workforce should keep the Australian economy in decent shape to weather the ongoing global slowdown. The Aussie traded lower following the news, but rebounded overnight.

Building Approvals
April
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5.7% -0.4% -0.8% 0.1%

For March m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Building Approvals y/y: -0.7%, pr. -1.6% (Feb), 5.1% (Jan)

The housing market continues to slump in Australia. building approvals have been on a downtrend since October-November last year. The Construction PMI for March contracted for the first time since April last year. As the winter for Australia approaches there is an expected slowdown as interest rates are at record highs as well. 

From the release:

Total Dwelling Units:
  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in March 2008.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 5.7% in March following a revised fall of 0.8% in February.

  • Values of Buildings Approved:
  • The trend estimate for the value of total building approved fell 0.9% in March. The trend estimate for the value of new residential building approved fell 2.5% and the value of alterations and additions fell 0.3%. The value of non-residential building approved rose 0.9%.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of total building approved fell 0.1% in March. The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of new residential building approved fell 6.0% in March. The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of alterations and additions fell 7.0% and the value of non-residential building rose 8.9%.
  • Home Loans m/m
    April
    13th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    -5.9% 0.5% 2.3% N/A

    For February
    Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    The number of loans granted to people to build or buy homes or apartments dropped a seasonally adjusted 5.9% in February to 63,817 commitments (carrying a total value of A$14.95 billion). In January, permits totaled 67,794 valued at A$15.90 billion. The drop was the largest in four years, and undershot expectations of slightly positive growth of 0.5%. The report also showed that the total value of housing finance fell 7.1 per cent in February to $21.5 billion.

    The implications is that the economy may be cooling as four interest-rate increases in seven months work their way through the economy. Interest rates, at 7.25%, are at a 12-year high. Growth in the economy is slowing and the central bank will lower its forecasts for economic growth and inflation when its quarterly policy statement is released on May 9 the central bank governor Stevens said at a half-year testimony to parliament's economics committee in Sydney.

    Building Approvals
    April
    6th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    0.1% 0.0% 1.9% N/A

    For February m/m (s.a.)
    Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Building Approvals y/y: -1.6%, pr. 5.1% (Jan), -0.9% (Dec)

    Pre-Release: Last month's building approvals recovered to show growth of 1.9% m/m, after permits fell by 16% in January. The pick up was encouraging, but Australia is currently facing higher interest rates, and what appears to be some effects of the global slowdown.

    Post-Release: Australia's housing sector is still slow, but stabilizing somewhat from a few volatile months toward the end of last year.
    Home Loans m/m
    March
    10th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    2.3% 0.9% 1.1% N/A
    For January
    Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Total home loans increased for the 3rd month in a row in January. At the moment, it appears the housing market down under is steering clear from any problems that might be connected with the US housing crisis.
    Building Approvals
    March
    5th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    1.9% 5.5% -16.0% N/A

    Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for January
    Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Building Approvals y/y: 5.1%  pr. -0.9%

    In January, total approvals for dwelling recovered slightly after it plunged in December. The trend however has been turning negative after peaking last year in November. 

    Home Loans m/m
    February
    10th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    0.1% -0.9% 4.0% N/A
    For December.
    Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
    Building Approvals
    February
    4th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    -16.0% -3.8% 8.9% N/A

    For December (s.a.)
    Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics

    Approvals y/y: -0.9%

    Building approvals took a dive in December, with 12,263 units approved on a seasonally adjusted bases.

    Home Loans m/m
    January
    15th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    4.0% 0.9% -0.7% N/A
    For November
    Release fromAustralian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Refinancing was a key driver for the 4.0% surge in loans for "owner occupied housing". Excluding refinancing, first-time home loans rose 1.5%.
    Building Approvals
    January
    7th, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    8.9% 0.0% -3.6% -2.8%
    Seasonally adjusted month-over-month for November.
    Building Approvals y/y: 14.6%, pr. 9.1%
    Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Approvals for dwelling units surged 8.9% in November for the most increase in nine months. According to Bloomberg, improvements in employment, wages and immigration stimulated investment. Apartment building approvals drove up the increase. We know now that for December however, apartment construction contracted.

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