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Indicator Digest

Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Building Approvals

Most Recent Release

March
1st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.0% 0.6% 5.6% 2.2%

For January m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y (n.s.a.): pr. 53.3% (Dec), 33.3% (Nov), 11.7% (Oct),
11.7% (Sep), 0.0% (Aug), -3.9% (Jul), -14.3% (Jun), -22.4% (May),
-16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb)

Table of Past Data

6/16/307/298/319/2911/311/301/52/33/1
Actual5.1%-12.5%9.3%7.7%-0.1%2.7%-0.6%5.9%2.2%-7.0%
Forecast2.1%3.2%7.2%3.3%2.7%2.4%2.0%3.1%0.0%0.6%
Previous6.3%5.1%-11.0%9.9%6.6%-0.9%5.1%-1.8%10.4%5.6%
Revised From3.5%N/A-12.5%9.3%7.7%-0.1%2.7%-0.6%5.9%2.2%

Past Releases

February
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.2% 0.0% 10.4% 5.9%

For December m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y (n.s.a.): 53.3%, forecast 38.2%, 33.3% (Nov),
11.7% (Oct), 11.7% (Sep), 0.0% (Aug), -3.9% (Jul), -14.3% (Jun),
-22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb)

January
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.9% 3.1% -1.8% -0.6%
November
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% 2.0% 5.1% 2.7%

For October m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y (n.s.a.): 11.7%, pr. 11.7% (Sep), 0.0% (Aug),
-3.9% (Jul), -14.3% (Jun), -22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr),
15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb), -33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec),
-32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct)

Australia’s seasonally adjusted building approvals unexpectedly slipped 0.6% m/m to 12,814 in October, the first decline in five months, after an upwardly revised 5.1% m/m increase in September, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed. October building approvals rose 11.7% y/y. Approvals to build private houses increased 5.0% m/m to 9,642 in October, a tenth consecutive monthly gain, while approvals for apartments and renovations fell 19.3% m/m to 2,512.

November
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.7% 2.4% -0.9% -0.1%

For September m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y (n.s.a.): pr. 0.0% (Aug), -3.9% (Jul), -14.3% (Jun),
-22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb),
-33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct)

September
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 2.7% 6.6% 7.7%

For August m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y (n.s.a.): 0.0%, pr. -3.9% (Jul), -14.3% (Jun),
-22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb),
-33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct)

Australian building approvals unexpectedly fell 0.1% in August, following a downwardly revised 6.6% increase in July. Its a sign of what may be in store for housing as government stimulus measures begin to wane. The central bank has kept interest rates at a 49-year low of 3% since April, when Governor Glenn Stevens slashed borrowing costs by a record 4.25% between September and April. However, both the fiscal stimulus from the government and the loose monetary policy will have to be unwound as the private sector rebounds. The housing sector and approvals has benefited from the government tripling its grants to A$21,000 for first-time buyers of new homes. The low interest rates and increased demand from the tax credit helped push housing prices up 4.2% in the second quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week, and will be watched for any hints of when the bank sees itself raising rates.

August
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.7% 3.3% 9.9% 9.3%

For July m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y:  pr. -22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar),
-25.5% (Feb), -33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct),
-21.6% (Sep), -8.6% (Aug), -3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May)

July
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.3% 7.2% -11.0% -12.5%

For June m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y:  pr. -22.4% (May), -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar),
-25.5% (Feb), -33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct),
-21.6% (Sep), -8.6% (Aug), -3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May)

June
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-12.5% 3.2% 5.1% N/A

For May m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y: -22.4%, pr. -16.1% (Apr), 15.2% (Mar), -25.5% (Feb),
-33.5% (Jan), -32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct),
-21.6% (Sep), -8.6% (Aug), -3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May)

June
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.1% 2.1% 6.3% 3.5%

For April m/m (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Approvals y/y: -16.1%, pr. -15.2% R (Mar), -25.5% (Feb), -33.5% (Jan),
-32.9% (Dec), -32.9% (Nov), -26.0% (Oct), -21.6% (Sep), -8.6% (Aug),
-3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May), 5.2% (Apr)