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Building Permits
Building permits and mortgage approvals are forward looking indicators as they give an indication to future construction projects. In order to start construction on a home, a building permit must be issued, and this indicator captures the effect. The more homes that are being built and sold, the better that an economy is doing.

Main Indicator: Building Permits

Most Recent Release

December
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.61M 0.70M 0.73M N/A

Annualized Rate for November
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Permits m/m: -15.6%, pr. -12.0% (Oct), -6.1% (Sep), -8.9% (Aug),
-17.7% (Jul), 11.6% (Jun), -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits plunged 15.6% in November to a record-low 616,000 annual rate. That was much lower than forecasts and reflects that home builders are scaling back activity in the face of deteriorating sales and tighter access to financing and credit. Housing start figures were just as bad.

Table of Past Data

3/184/165/166/177/178/199/1710/1711/1912/16
Actual0.98M0.93M978K970K1.09M0.94M0.85M0.79M0.71M0.61M
Forecast1.02M0.97M910K960K0.96M0.98M0.93M0.85M0.78M0.70M
Previous1.06M0.98M928K978K0.98M1.14M0.94M0.86M0.81M0.73M
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A0.971.09MN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Past Releases

November
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.71M 0.78M 0.81M N/A

Annualized figure for October
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Permits m/m: -12.0%, pr. -6.1% (Sep), -8.9% (Aug), -17.7% (Jul),
11.6% (Jun), -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits plunged in October, falling 12% to a 708,000 annual rate. That was a much bigger decline that expected by economists and points to a weak future construction. Housing starts hit a new record low the release noted as well. The data bodes poorly for the housing market which is in dire straits as sales continue to fall and home prices come down. The incentive to build new homes is not there for builders, which in could help to relieve some of the excess supply and inventory seen in the market and help to stabilize prices. Still, the data means more poeple out of work and less activity from the construction sector will go into GDP growth.

October
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.79M 0.85M 0.86M N/A

Annualized figure for September
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Building Permits m/m: 8.3%, pr. -8.9% (Aug), -17.7% (Jul), 11.6% (Jun),
-1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

September
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.85M 0.93M 0.94M N/A

Annualized figure for August
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Building Permits -8.9%, m/m: pr. -17.7% (Jul), 11.6% (Jun), -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits for privately-owned housing came in below expectations, and is 36.4% lower compared to August 2007. The Northeast was hit the hardest, down 21.0% on the month. the South and West saw declines of 9.9% and 7.1% respectively. The Midwest actually saw a 0.7% increase in permits.

Strong housing data from was needed today to convince the market that the effects of the subprime meltdown has peaked in intensity. Instead, further correction may be ahead.

August
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.94M 0.98M 1.14M 1.09M

Annualized figure for July
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Official Release: PDF

Building Permits m/m: -17.7%, pr. 11.6%, -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Just when the housing market was showing some signs of recovery, the fundamentals headed back south. New construction building permits dropped 17.7% in the month to an annual rate of 937,000 units. Single unit permits fell 5.2% to 584,000 a year, the lowest since August 1982. Multi-family permits, which is a more volatile component, fell 32.4% to 353,000 units a year. Lending conditions are still tight, inventory still elevated and the economy as a whole growing modestly. It remains to be seen whether the latest housing stimulus package will offer relief to the housing market.

From the Release: "Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000. This is 17.7 percent (±1.3%) below the revised June rate of 1,138,000 and is 32.4 percent (±1.5%) below the revised July 2007 estimate of 1,386,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 584,000; this is 5.2 percent (±1.4%) below the June figure of 616,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 318,000 in July."

July
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.09M 0.96M 0.98M 0.97
Annualized figure for June
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: 11.6%, pr. -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits rose 11.6% for June, climbing to 1.091 million units. Similar to the surprising increase in housing starts data gains were led by the Northeast region and more specifically a change to construction codes in New York City, which seem to have inflated the data. Excluding the Northeast, permits rose 0.7%. The data seems to be an outlier compared to the recent trend. 

June
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
970K 960K 978K N/A
Annualized figure for May
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -1.3%, pr. 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

See "Housing Starts" comment above.

May
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
978K 910K 928K N/A

Annualized figure for April
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: 4.9%, pr. -5.8%

Building permits increased 4.9% in April compared to March, registering an annual pace of 978K. The figure surprised on the upside and reflected gains in both single and multifamily units. Housing starts were up as well, though growth there was led by multifamily units only. Despite lower interest rates from the Fed, housing has been stuck as home-buyers are having a harder time financing loans, and a slowing economy is sapping jobs and confidence in the country. Housing prices continue to fall and even yesterday's NAHB-Wells Fargo House Price Index declined to 19 from 20. One good report does not break a trend.

April
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.93M 0.97M 0.98M N/A

Annualized figure for March
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -5.8%

Building permits declined 5.8% to an annualized pace of 927,000, the lowest since April 1991. In the last 12 months, permits are down 40.9%, the largest 12-month drop in sixteen years. As a leading indicator for future construction, the data points to the the housing recession continuing throughout 2008.

March
18th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.98M 1.02M 1.06M N/A

Annualized figure for February
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building permits declined to a 16 year low, continuing its downtrend that has brought it down from a pace of 1.41 million in June. Since permits are an indicator of future construction, there is no sign that the housing recession is close to bottoming out. There is a large supply of unsold new homes that need to be worked off before new construction will begin to recover.  

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