Annual Pace of Starts for December
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Most Current Release: PDF

Starts m/m: -4.0%, pr. 10.7%

Annual Pace For November
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Most Current Release: PDF

Housing starts bounced back in November following a disappointing month for construction in October. Starts were up 8.9% to an annual pace of 574,000 while building permits climbed 6% to an annual rate of 584,000, the highest level since last November. The starts figure came in close to expectations while permits were better-than-expected. The extension of government tax credits for first-time home-buyers, lower home prices, and low mortgage rates create the conditions for higher home sales and higher construction. Housing is in recovery, but the gains have been moderate as a high unemployment rate and weak labor market put downward pressure on intentions to purchase homes.

As you can see from this graph, housing starts hit a bottom in the beginning of this year, as the Fed cut interest rates to near zero and took on plans to purchase Treasuries and in an attempt to keep mortgage rates low. However starts have been bouncing along the bottom since then and until the economy shows growth and a better labor market we may be stuck in the 500K-600K range. However, with the $8,000 first-time home-buyer tax credit extended until April 30th, that may give builders reason to speed up projects over the next couple of months. When the extension of the tax credit was still in the air, starts slid sharply in the October period.

Annual Pace For October
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Most Current Release: PDF

Housing starts fell 10.6% in October, falling to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 annual rate. That wiped out months of gains, and shows how home builders were extremely cautious over the uncertainty over the renewal of a tax credit for home buyers. Building permits, a measure of future construction, fell as well. The consensus forecasts was for a small increase to an annual rate of 600,000. Congress did in fact approve the extension of the $8,000 tax credit through April.

Today's figures are a set back for the housing sector which had begun to show signs of life. New home sales for instance are up 22% since hitting bottom in January, and inventories of unsold homes have been worked down somewhat. Figures on new home sales come out next month.

Annual Pace For September
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Most Current Release: PDF

Housing starts surprised forecasts on the downside in September, with the annual pace rising 0.5% to 590,000 from a downwardly revised 587,000 in August. The data is an indication that builders expect to see weaker demand as a result of the expiration of the government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers on November 30th. The data would add a piece of evidence for Fed policy makers that would make them more inclined to keep interest rates low for an extended period. Today's figures follow a drop in the NAHB housing market index yesterday, with a third housing report - existing home sales - set for Friday. If the recovery in the housing sector takes a step back it would be a bad sign for the recovery of the overall economy. Still, if existing home sales rise as forecast, it could soothe fears about a retraction in the housing sector. 

Annual Pace For August
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Most Current Release: PDF

The number of housing starts increased to a 598K annual rate in August, from an upwardly revised 589K in July, a level that matched economists forecasts and is the highest level in nine months. However, looking deeper into the data it shows that home builders broke ground on fewer single-family homes as the government's tax credit for first-time buyers is approaching expiration. Builders are hoping for an extension of the credit. Thanks to government efforts and low prices the market has stabilized, but there may be a period of consolidation now with the expiration of the tax credit. A full recovery in the market will have to wait for the employment picture in the US to recover.

Annual Pace For July
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Housing starts bucked forecasts and declined in July to an annualized rate of 581,000. It was the first decline in three months and shows that even though the market may have hit a bottom, the housing market will bounce along the bottom at this point. The US economy is still facing pressures from high unemployment and with banks continuing to limit lending the housing market recovery will take time. In a positive sign, construction of single-family homes rose 1.7%. That segment makes up about 75% of the overall market. Those homes are being helped by an $8,000 tax credit. 

Annual Pace For June
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Housing starts jumped 3.6% to an annual rate of 582K, the highest level since November, and following an upwardly revised 562K pace in May. The report can signal that housing starts have hit a bottom in the 1st quarter. Lower borrowing costs are combining with lower prices to make homes more affordable. Recent data has pointed to early stages of a rebound. Yesterday, the NAHB index of builder confidence rose to 17 in July, the highest level in 10 months, while slaes of existing and new homes climbed to an 5.1 million annual rate in May, which is the highest level so far this year. If the housing sector is able to come out of its recession it would be a big boost to the economy. However, there are still worries over the rate of foreclosures in the country, and falling housing prices will still pose a problem to those home owners that are seeing a main store of wealth deteriorate. It's important to keep watching the housing data for signs of a durbale recovery in the sector. 

Annual Pace For May
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Starts m/m: 17.2%, pr. -13% (Apr), -10.8% (Mar), 22.0% (Feb),
-16.8% (Jan), -14.5% (Dec), -18.9% (Nov), -6.4% (Oct), -3.0% (Sep),
-10.0% (Aug), 1.0% (Jul), 9.1% (Jun), -2.7% (May), 8.2% (Apr)

Housing starts surged in June, climbing 17.2% compared to May, as the annual rate of housing starts increased to 532,000 units.  It could be an indication of a bottom, but February's similar jump was met by two months of declining starts. The increase was led by a 29% jump in the West and a 17% increase in the South. House prices have been falling, and new homeowners are taking advantage of an $8,000 tax credit. However, mortgage rates have started to climb again, with the 30-year home loan rising to 5.57% in the week ended June 5th, levels last seen last November.

Annual Pace For April
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Starts m/m: -13%, pr. -10.8% (Mar), 22.0% (Feb), -16.8% (Jan),
-14.5% (Dec), -18.9% (Nov), -6.4% (Oct), -3.0% (Sep), -10.0% (Aug),
1.0% (Jul), 9.1% (Jun), -2.7% (May), 8.2% (Apr)

US housing starts slid 13% to an annual rate of 458,000, a figure that was much lower than anticipated. The news deals a blow to those thinking that the construction sector may be recovering though lower starts will lead to a reduction in supply, which has been an Achilles heel for builders as an oversupply of new homes has pressured prices. That leaves the prospect for a recovery in the second half, though it could pressure the economy in the short run.