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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 128K | 127K | 118K | N/A | ||
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For May
From the Release: "The increase in May is broadly based, encompassing both the singles and multiples segments,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. Housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009 and over the next several years to gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year."
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| 9/9 | 10/8 | 11/10 | 12/8 | 1/9 | 2/9 | 3/9 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 6/8 | ||
| Actual | 211K | 218K | 212K | 172K | 177K | 153K | 135K | 155K | 117K | 128K | |
| Forecast | 194K | 209K | 202K | 199K | 175K | 169K | 149K | 131K | 140K | 127K | |
| Previous | 187K | 217K | 219K | 212K | 178K | 172K | 154K | 136K | 147K | 118K | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 218K | N/A | 172K | N/A | N/A | 135K | 155K | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 117K | 140K | 147K | 155K | ||
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For April
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts decreased to 117,400 units in April from 146,500 units in March, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “The decrease in April's housing starts is partly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC's Market Analysis Centre. “Most of the decline has occurred in the condominium segment in Ontario.” While some improvement is expected, new home construction is unlikely to match the pace set over the past seven years, which exceeded 200,000 units per year. Housing starts will be more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 155K | 131K | 136K | 135K | ||
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For March
From the Release: " The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts increased to 154,700 units in March from 136,100 units in February, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Higher multiple starts in Ontario and Quebec were the main contributors to the rise in new construction activity in March,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “While the multiples segment experienced the largest increase, the overall boost in starts was broad based, encompassing the singles segment as well.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 135K | 149K | 154K | N/A | ||
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For February
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts declined to 134,600 units in February from 153,500 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Increased listings and reduced sales in the existing home market continue to impact the new home market,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “The decrease in February housing starts is partly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment. In any given month and given its relative importance, the volatility of the multiple starts segment can exaggerate monthly movements up or down in the rate of housing starts.” The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 14.9 per cent to 107,800 units in February. Urban multiple starts decreased 17.5 per cent to 63,300 units, while urban single starts fell 11 per cent to 44,500 units in February."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 153K | 169K | 172K | N/A | ||
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For January
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts declined to 153,500 units in January from 172,200 units in December of 2008, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “To a certain extent, the decline in housing starts coincides with recent developments in the existing home market. Reduced sales and increased listings in the existing home market have led to reduced spillover demand in the new home market,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 177K | 175K | 178K | 172K | ||
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For December
From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 177,300 units in December, down marginally from 178,000 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Housing starts in December were almost unchanged compared to November,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “At an estimated 212,366 units, housing starts in 2008 breached the 200,000 unit mark for a seventh consecutive year.” Pent-up housing demand which built up over the 1990s enabled Canadian housing starts to exceed long run demographic demand for the majority of this decade. This excess demand has gradually decreased and CMHC expects construction levels in 2009 to be more aligned with long run demographic demand." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 172K | 199K | 212K | N/A | ||
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For November
Housing starts eased in November according to the CMHC. Total units of housing fell from 211,800 to 172,000, a sharp decline of 18.8% on an annualized basis. The housing market in Canada has sustained fairly well considering its proximity to the US, but is seeing demand steadily scale back. From the release: "The decrease in November housing starts can be attributed in part to the volatile multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Still, housing starts in November remain consistent with our forecast which calls for more moderate activity of 212,000 units this year and 178,000 units next year. Note that at the beginning of the new millennium, Canada posted strong housing start levels given a pent-up demand that existed then. Over the last few years, this excess demand gradually decreased and our forecast for 2008 and 2009 reflects this new reality with housing starts, more aligned with long run demographic demand." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 212K | 202K | 219K | 218K | ||
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For October
The annual rate of Canadian housing starts fell slightly in October, but the number remains consistent with a relatively strong trend, compared to other developed nations such as the US and UK. Still for the first 10 months of 2008, actual starts were down an estimated 1.6% compared to the same period last year.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 218K | 209K | 217K | N/A | ||
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For September
Housing starts according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corportation (CMFC) rose by 217,600 units on an adjusted annual rate. This was slightly higher than August's 217,400 units. With construction staying above the 200,000 units level for 8 out of the last 10 months, the housing market in Canada has been resilient. The numbers however have drastically declined since the same time last year when the CMFC posted above 275,000 units in adjusted anuual terms. From the release: For the first nine months of 2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined were down an estimated 5.7 per cent, compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date actual starts in urban areas have decreased by an estimated 0.8 per cent over the same period in 2007. Actual urban single starts for the January to September period of this year were 15.6 per cent lower than they were a year earlier, while urban multiple starts were up by 12.2 per cent over the same period. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 211K | 194K | 187K | N/A | ||
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For August
The pace of annual Housing Starts rose more than expected in August, moving back above the 200K annual rate to 211K. The Canadian housing market has been performing admirably while the US faces its steepest housing recession in decades. Most of the gains came from the Ontario region. The USD/CAD found support overnight at 1.06 and was climbing higher in NY trading, testing 1.9685 following the release. The greenback saw some strength as a result of decline in oil prices. |
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