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Indicator Digest

Business Confidence
Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Most Recent Release

February
25th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23 -1 -8 N/A

For February
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Previous Release: News Release

Table of Past Data

5/286/247/288/279/2910/2711/2612/171/272/25
Actual-17-17-15-16381313-823
Forecast-10-17-12-12-156111412-1
Previous3-17-17-15-16381313-8
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

January
27th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8 12 13 N/A

For January
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The UK high street reported a slight fall in year-on-year sales in early January, disappointing retailers' predictions and ending a three-month run of sales growth, the CBI said today. Responding to the CBI's latest Distributive Trades Survey, 28% of retailers said that the volume of sales in the year to early January had risen, while 36% said it had dropped. The resulting balance of -8% was weaker than predictions made last month of sales being broadly flat on a year ago (-2%)."

December
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
13 14 13 N/A
November
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
13 11 8 N/A

For November
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: "Retail sales grew at their fastest pace in two years, and the high street is expecting growth to pick up further in the run-up to Christmas, the CBI said today. Its latest Distributive Trades Survey also showed that business sentiment about the retail sector over the coming three months is now positive for the first time since August 2007.

Responding to the survey, 40% of retailers said that their volume of sales in the year to November had risen, while 27% said they fell. The resulting balance of +13% reflects a second consecutive month of growth and, while not quite as strong as expected (+19%), it was the highest balance since November 2007 (+13%)."

October
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8 6 3 N/A

For October
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: "UK high street sales grew modestly in the year to October, and at the most positive rate in almost two years, the CBI said today. Its latest monthly Distributive Trades Survey also shows that sales in sectors related to the housing market improved, and that the high street anticipates stronger sales growth in November.

Asked about sales in the year to October, 41% of respondents said that volumes had risen, while 33% said they were down. The resulting balance of +8% beat expectations (+3%), was an improvement on September's broadly flat sales (+3%), and was the highest since December 2007 (+8%).

Looking to November, a balance of 19% expects sales volumes to improve, which is the most optimistic since July 2007 (+19%)."

September
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3 -15 -16 N/A

For September
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: "Conditions in the retail sector are beginning to stabilise, with sales broadly flat in the year to September, and expected to remain unchanged in October. That is according to CBI's monthly Distributive Trades Survey.

Responding to the business group's latest survey, 39% of retailers said year-on-year sales volumes rose in September, while 36% said they fell.

The resulting balance of +3% was better than expected, and follows four consecutive months of falling sales. Looking forward to October, retailers expect sales will remain broadly flat compared with a year ago."

August
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-16 -12 -15 N/A

For August
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: "High street sales fell for the fourth month running in the year to August, but retailers are no longer feeling pessimistic about the outlook for their business situation in the coming months, the CBI said today (Thursday)...

Sales for the time of year were reported to be poor by a net 25% of retailers, while the three-month moving average of sales volumes, which smooths out monthly peaks and troughs, remained as weak as in July (-16%)...

After an 18-month period of distinctly negative business sentiment, retailers are no longer feeling so pessimistic about the outlook for their general business situation. The balance of firms expecting a deterioration over the next three months is very modest (-2%) and the least negative since November 2007 (a balance of -1%)." 

July
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-15 -12 -17 N/A

For July
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: "The UK High Street is having a difficult summer as retail sales fell for the third month running in the year to July, and the forecast for August is also weak, the CBI said today (Tuesday).

However, its latest Distributive Trades Survey showed that the latest drop in sales was similar to the more moderate rates seen in May and June, and not as severe as the heavy falls seen between July 2008 and March 2009.

The survey revealed that, when asked about year-on-year sales volumes in the year to July, 32% of respondents said that volumes had increased, while 47% said they were down. The resulting balance of -15% was better than expected (-21%), although a slightly heavier fall is predicted in August (-23%)."

June
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-17 -17 -17 N/A

For June
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Previous Release: HTML

May
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-17 -10 3 N/A

For May
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: HTML

From the Release: Retail sales fell again in the year to May, following a brief pause in April, the CBI said today (Thursday). This month's decline in sales was in line with retailers' expectations and, other than in April, was the least negative result in nearly a year. At the same time, retailers' sentiment about general business prospects was the least negative for over a year.

In the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, 31% of retailers said year-on-year sales volumes were up in the first half of May, while 48% said they were down. The resulting balance of -17% was close to retailers' expectations (-15%) and, other than last month's broadly flat figure of +3%, was the least negative figure since June 2008 (-9%). A similar decline in sales is expected in June (-20%)."