For August
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

A UK measure of retail sales fell to show a net balance of 46% of respondents answering sales were lower in the first half of August compared to a year ago. 38% of respondents believe the retail business will be worse off over the next three months, which damped investment intentions. The UK economy is facing pressures from every area. Housing continues to show anemic growth, consumer are pressured by higher prices for food and gas, and rising costs of living. With consumer confidence at very low levels, spending has decreased. As we outlined in Wednesday's Market Highlights, the Pound has been sliding sharply in August as traders price in rate cuts from the Bank of England.

From the Release: "A wet August and disappointing summer sales have compounded the deepening problems on the High Street, where sales have continued to fall sharply and jobs have been hit. It was the second month of sharp falls in sales volumes and, with a similar drop expected in September, business confidence is very weak. Growth in average selling prices has eased back from a 16 year high, but remains strong.

Sixty per cent of respondents to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey said that sales in the first half of August were lower than a year ago, while 13% said they were up. The resulting rounded balance of -46% was worse than anticipated (-32%) and the weakest since the survey began in 1983 - although changes in answering practices over the past 25 years diminish this comparison"

For July
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Previous Release: News Release

The retail sector is struggled through a rough patch this summer. Sales volume fell sharply in July, and the outlook remains grim according to the CBI. 61% respondents reported weaker sales than a year ago, with only 25% reporting higher sales, resulting in the -36% net, the weakest since the survety began in 1983, and significantly below expectations of a softer decline.

Sales have not been working this summer as they have somewhat helped earlier in the beginning of the year. This drag was felt throughout the supply chain as those reporting lower new orders with suppliers also netted a balance of 37%. Partially to blame for the poor figures is the depressed housing market which is keeping a low ceiling on home prices of home furnishings and other related products. Of course the ongoing inflation and fears of a recession are working to keep the consumer's disposable spending light. 

For June
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Retailers suffered another weaker month of sales. There were 9% more respondents reporting weaker sales that an improvement in sales. Demand had decreased as consumers are pressured by rising costs for necessities such as energy and food, while the housing market slumps and the economy slows down. Annual sales were weaker for clothing, books and stationary, and products tied to housing, such as durable household goods, furniture & carpets, hardware, china, etc.. The release was better than in May, and surprised the forecast of a -17 reading on the upside. The Pound picked up vs the Dollar continuing yesterday's quiet rally.

From the Release: "It has been another difficult month for the high street as pressure on household budgets continues, and retailers also fear that beleaguered shoppers will not be tempted by the July sales, the CBI said today (Wednesday).

Thirty nine per cent of retail respondents to its latest Distributive Trades Survey reported that in the first half of June sales were lower than a year ago, while 30% said sales had increased.

The resulting balance of -9% disappointed expectations of modest growth in sales volumes, but was an improvement on last month's balance of -14% and April's very weak figure (-26). A slightly slower decline is predicted next month (-7%). The 9% survey balance equates to annual volume growth of just over 2% on the ONS measure."

From the release:

Asked about their year-on-year sales volumes, 28% of retailers said they had increased, while 42% said they had fallen. The resulting balance of -14% was in line with retailers' expectations and is less severe than the net -26% reported last month. Sales are expected to recover slightly in June, by a balance of +6%.

For April
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release 

From the Release:

"Year-on-year retail sales fell markedly in April as poor weather and the early Easter added to the economic slowdown to dent spending, the CBI said today (Tuesday).

Sales of big-ticket items, particularly those tied to the housing market, saw some of the biggest falls, according to the business organisation's Distributive Trades Survey.

The monthly snapshot of the high street showed that 52% of retailers said sales volumes were down on a year ago compared to 25% who said they were up. The rounded balance of -26 was the weakest since November 2005 and is only expected to improve to -15 in May, signalling further falls in sales volumes."

For March
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Pre-Release:
The CBI Distributive Trades Realized index, a measure activity in the retail sector,  turned negative at -3 in February. The indicator had been hovering in single digits in Jan and Dec, and was expected to fall even further this month.

Post Release:
The index surprised on the upside, and crawled back into positive territory, though barely.

From the Release:

"Retail activity remained subdued in March with high street stores reporting flat year-on-year sales, the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows today (Thursday). About a third (36%) of retailers told the business organisation their sales volumes in the first half of the month were higher than a year earlier while 35% said they were lower. The resulting balance of +1 was marginally better than retailers' expectations (-2), which followed February's figure of -3, the first negative balance since November 2006.

The three-month moving average, which smooths out blips and monthly volatility, continued its gradual fall from its peak of +36 last May to +1 this month. Unsurprisingly given this slowdown, retailers described sales for the time of year as poor (29% compared to 15% saying they were good, a balance of -14). "

For January
Confederation of British Industry

UK retail sales volumes grew at their slowest rate since Nov 2006 in January, the CBI reported. The balance of retailers reporting higher sales in January, fell to 4 from 8 in December. UK consumers are being more cautious about big ticket purchases. Durable household goods, those designed to last longer than 3 years, fell to a balance of -66, from -7 in December. Some economists had predicted an even sharper drop in the retail sector, though this data shows that consumer spending, though diminished, has not collapsed..