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Business Confidence
Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: ZEW Expectations

Most Recent Release

July
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-76.9 -66.8 -63.8 N/A

For July
Provided by: Credit Suisse
Official Release: Press Release

The Swiss economy is also gripped with high inflation. This survey found that analysts believe inflation to stabilize towards the end of the year. Therefore, a rate hike is not warranted. The other focus of this month's survey was the stock market which has dipped since May. It is expected to make a recovery also by the end of the year. 

From the Release:

"Economic expectations on the part of the financial market experts participating in the ZEW survey continued to deteriorate noticeably in July, with the corresponding balance of indicators falling from -63.8 to the -76.9 level. The analysts also expressed a less positive view of the current economic situation, so the balance of indicators declined from 53.2 to the 41.0 mark. On the other hand, inflation expectations have diminished somewhat: only a minority of respondents (35.9%) expects inflation rates to climb on a six-month horizon. The balance for short-term interest rate expectations remains in positive territory, although the majority of survey participants now anticipates that rates will remain unchanged. Within the scope of this month's "special question," the financial experts were asked to convey their assessment regarding the effects of high inflation rates on the Swiss stock market. The analysts predict that the Swiss Market Index (SMI) will outperform the MSCI World index amid times of high inflation and recommend investing in companies in the pharmaceuticals and food sectors. "

 

Table of Past Data

10/1811/1512/121/172/143/124/175/216/187/17
Actual-16.0-28.9-29.7-32.7-55.6-71.7-71.4-60.4-63.8-76.9
Forecast-35.0-60.0-60.8-66.8
Previous-26.7-16.0-28.9-29.7-32.7-55.6-71.7-71.4-60.4-63.8
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

June
18th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-63.8 -60.8 -60.4 N/A
For June
Provided by: Credit Suisse
Previous (for May) Press Release

From the release:

Merely 2.1 percent of the respondents expect the Swiss economy to brighten up. The ZEW-CS indicator for the economic expectations therefore declined overall by 3.4 points to the -63.8 mark. The majority of the experts continues to view the current economic situation in Switzerland as "good," although the assessment was worse in this month's survey compared with previous months. Nearly half of the participants (46.8 percent) regard the prevailing economic environment as "normal," while none of the analysts describes the current situation as "bad." The relevant balance of indicators dropped by 11.4 points to the 53.2 level.

 

May
21st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-60.4 -71.4 N/A

For May
Provided by: Credit Suisse
Official Release: Press Release
Financial Market Report: PDF 

The Credit Suisse/Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) Expectations index improved, though it is still negative overall. The number of respondents that believe the economy will deteriorate shrank 10.9% to 65%. Inflation is expected to continue to rise (54% of respondents, up 17.5%). The number of analysts expecting short term interest rates to rise increased 12.7% to 22.9%, though 62.5% see no change.

The Swiss Franc continued its gains on the Yen, Euro and Dollar that started in yesterday's session following higher producer prices data.      

From the Release:

"The results of this month's survey conducted in conjunction with the Financial Market Test Switzerland paint a more positive picture of economic momentum on a six-month horizon, although respondents continue to expect the economy to weaken. Nearly 65% of the participants in the May survey still predict that the economy will deteriorate, but this group shrank by 10.9 percentage points versus the previous month. Almost one-third of the experts now expect to see no change in the economy in the medium term. The corresponding balance of indicators thus increased by 11 points to the -60.4 mark." 

April
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-71.4 -60.0 -71.7 N/A

For April
Provided by: Credit Suisse
Official Release: Press Release

The report showed little change from last month in the headline figure. Current expectations seem to be holding steady, while expectations are mired in negative territory. 

From the Release:  

"The Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), revealed in April a nearly unchanged picture regarding the prospects for the Swiss economy compared to the previous month's survey. The relevant Credit Suisse ZEW indicator for economic expectations improved just slightly, by 0.3 points to the -71.4 mark. Accordingly, the majority of respondents still anticipate that economic momentum will lose steam in the coming six months. On the other hand, the assessment of the current economic situation remains mostly upbeat (with the corresponding balance at 65.3 points). Precisely 38.8% of the survey participants expect no change in the inflation environment on a six-month horizon, while 24.5% (up 9.3 %) expect a more moderate inflation rate in the future. Interest rate expectations remained unchanged for the most part in the April survey, with the lion's share of respondents (73.5%) anticipating no change in short-term interest rates. The results of this month's "special question" reveal that most of the financial experts forecast a lower current-account balance for 2008 in the wake of the record surplus registered last year." 

March
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-71.7 -55.6 N/A
For March
Provided by: Credit Suisse
February
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-55.6 -35.0 -32.7 N/A

For February
Provided by: Credit Suisse

"The Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), revealed that economic expectations diminished considerably in February. Hence, the relevant Credit Suisse ZEW indicator declined by 22.8 points to the -55.6 mark. The assessment of the current economic situation deteriorated as well in February, although it still stands at a high level of 72.2 (down 13.3 points compared with the previous month). Inflation expectations for the coming six months decreased noticeably too, with the balance of indicators declining from 54.5 to 26.4 points. At the same time, nearly half of the financial market experts forecast lower oil prices on a six-month horizon. The majority of survey participants (61.1%) still expect short-term interest rates to remain unchanged in the next half-year. However, since more of the experts surveyed in February anticipate lower interest rates and fewer analysts presume interest rates will climb, the corresponding balance of indicators dropped by 49.5 points to the -20.4 level."

January
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-32.7 -29.7 N/A
For January
December
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-29.7 -28.9 N/A
For December.
November
15th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-28.9 -16.0 N/A
For November.
October
18th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-16.0 -26.7 N/A
For October

Expectations improved with better outlook on banking sector.

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