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Main Indicator: ZEW Expectations
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -76.9 | -66.8 | -63.8 | N/A | ||
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For July
The Swiss economy is also gripped with high inflation. This survey found that analysts believe inflation to stabilize towards the end of the year. Therefore, a rate hike is not warranted. The other focus of this month's survey was the stock market which has dipped since May. It is expected to make a recovery also by the end of the year.
From the Release:
"Economic expectations on the part of the financial market experts participating in the ZEW survey continued to deteriorate noticeably in July, with the corresponding balance of indicators falling from -63.8 to the -76.9 level. The analysts also expressed a less positive view of the current economic situation, so the balance of indicators declined from 53.2 to the 41.0 mark. On the other hand, inflation expectations have diminished somewhat: only a minority of respondents (35.9%) expects inflation rates to climb on a six-month horizon. The balance for short-term interest rate expectations remains in positive territory, although the majority of survey participants now anticipates that rates will remain unchanged. Within the scope of this month's "special question," the financial experts were asked to convey their assessment regarding the effects of high inflation rates on the Swiss stock market. The analysts predict that the Swiss Market Index (SMI) will outperform the MSCI World index amid times of high inflation and recommend investing in companies in the pharmaceuticals and food sectors. "
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Table of Past Data
| 10/18 | 11/15 | 12/12 | 1/17 | 2/14 | 3/12 | 4/17 | 5/21 | 6/18 | 7/17 | ||
| Actual | -16.0 | -28.9 | -29.7 | -32.7 | -55.6 | -71.7 | -71.4 | -60.4 | -63.8 | -76.9 | |
| Forecast | -35.0 | -60.0 | -60.8 | -66.8 | |||||||
| Previous | -26.7 | -16.0 | -28.9 | -29.7 | -32.7 | -55.6 | -71.7 | -71.4 | -60.4 | -63.8 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -63.8 | -60.8 | -60.4 | N/A | ||
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For June
Provided by: Credit Suisse Previous (for May) Press Release From the release: Merely 2.1 percent of the respondents expect the Swiss economy to brighten up. The ZEW-CS indicator for the economic expectations therefore declined overall by 3.4 points to the -63.8 mark. The majority of the experts continues to view the current economic situation in Switzerland as "good," although the assessment was worse in this month's survey compared with previous months. Nearly half of the participants (46.8 percent) regard the prevailing economic environment as "normal," while none of the analysts describes the current situation as "bad." The relevant balance of indicators dropped by 11.4 points to the 53.2 level.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -60.4 | -71.4 | N/A | |||
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For May
The Credit Suisse/Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) Expectations index improved, though it is still negative overall. The number of respondents that believe the economy will deteriorate shrank 10.9% to 65%. Inflation is expected to continue to rise (54% of respondents, up 17.5%). The number of analysts expecting short term interest rates to rise increased 12.7% to 22.9%, though 62.5% see no change. The Swiss Franc continued its gains on the Yen, Euro and Dollar that started in yesterday's session following higher producer prices data. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -71.4 | -60.0 | -71.7 | N/A | ||
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For April
The report showed little change from last month in the headline figure. Current expectations seem to be holding steady, while expectations are mired in negative territory. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -71.7 | -55.6 | N/A | |||
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For March
Provided by: Credit Suisse |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -55.6 | -35.0 | -32.7 | N/A | ||
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For February
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -32.7 | -29.7 | N/A | |||
| For January | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -29.7 | -28.9 | N/A | |||
| For December. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -28.9 | -16.0 | N/A | |||
| For November. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -16.0 | -26.7 | N/A | |||
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For October Expectations improved with better outlook on banking sector. |
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