| About CMS | Forex Services | Trading Software | Forex Education | Forex Resources | My Account |
Main Indicator: Business Confidence
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -54.8 | -61.0 | -57.9 | N/A | ||
|
For April
From the Release: "A net 55 percent of businesses expect business conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. This is an improvement on the net 58 percent expecting a worsening environment last month. Confidence ebbed higher in retailing, construction and services, but dipped in manufacturing and agriculture. The economic environment is tough. The absolute level as opposed to the change in the survey indicators is telling us that in spades. Firms’ own activity expectations are seldom negative, so while an improvement is welcome, the absolute level remains disconcerting. Activity expectations, investment and employment intentions are all in the red. Hence, the fundamental story remains the same as last month. Momentum within the economy has stalled, and we may in fact be taking a step backward. Weakness in the first quarter has extended into the second. Our composite growth indicator is giving an uninviting reading on growth prospects over the coming year. The economy may do well to record positive growth at all over the coming year." |
|||||
Table of Past Data
| 6/27 | 7/30 | 8/29 | 9/26 | 10/30 | 11/28 | 12/17 | 2/26 | 3/30 | 4/29 | ||
| Actual | -37.2 | -39.0 | -33.8 | -26.5 | -12.9 | -19.6 | -24.9 | -43.9 | -57.9 | -54.8 | |
| Forecast | -22.0 | -25.0 | -61.0 | ||||||||
| Previous | -48.2 | -37.2 | -38.5 | -33.8 | -26.5 | -12.9 | -19.6 | -24.9 | -43.9 | -57.9 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: NZIER Business Confidence
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -64 | -26 | N/A | |||
|
For 1st Quarter
If the seasonal adjustment is excluded, the balance of firms in the March survey expecting the general business situation to deteriorate in the next six months is 64%. This compares with a net 26% of firms that expected the general business situation to deteriorate in the December survey. - NZIER Manufacturing expectations have become more pessimistic. Outlook on building construction for the coming months also became more negative. Alarmingly, 0% of the firms surveyed expressed employment intentions, the previous surveyed showed 14%. Pricing intentions will also be a problem for the Reserve Bank. |
|||||
Table of Past Data
| 4/9 | 7/9 | 10/8 | 1/14 | 4/7 | |||||||
| Actual | -15 | -37 | -27 | -26 | -64 | ||||||
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 3 | -15 | -37 | -27 | -26 | ||||||
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||
Past Releases
Business Confidence
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -57.9 | -43.9 | N/A | |||
|
For March
From the Release:
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -43.9 | -25.0 | -24.9 | N/A | ||
|
For February
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -26 | -27 | N/A | |||
|
For January Release from New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Pessimism is more widespread regarding outlook of the next 6 monhts, according to the institute chief executive Brent Layton. Although commercial environment is expected to deteriorate, the central bank doesn't have much room to operate rate reduction policies. Price pressures remain as shown by several indicators of inflation. As firms find it harder when seeking both skilled and non skilled labor, the report cited "a level that suggests high difficulty by historical standards." After the release The NZD and AUD ranged but took a hit during the New York trading session. The continuing poor business confidence reports suggest the central bank will consider a dovish stance if inflationary pressures ease, although this scenario does not seem likely in the upcoming months. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -24.9 | -22.0 | -19.6 | N/A | ||
|
For December
An increased percent of businesses expect conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. On the bright side, when asked about firms' own activities, a slightly higher percentage looked forward to higher levels. With a stronger New Zealand dollar at the end of the year, expectations for exports were curbed. The report on Business Outlook by the bank remains optimistic, noting that although the economy is not sustaining its "galloping" pace, it has only eased to a "canter". |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -19.6 | -12.9 | N/A | |||
| For October. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -12.9 | -26.5 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -27 | -37 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -26.5 | -33.8 | N/A | |||
| In August, net 27% of respondents expect business conditions to deteriorate in the coming year according to New Zealand's National Bank. The survey has seen slight increases in optimism in the recent months, with respondents in August feeling better about agriculture activity, which is expected to spill-over to exports. Also, the higher commodity prices and lower NZD in early August had a big positive impact on the responses. Construction has reheated, but investment and employment intentions have declined. One encouraging part of the survey is that the international financial market volatility has not played a part in the negative expectations. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -33.8 | -38.5 | N/A | |||
| Slightly less respondents are pessimistic about the coming year. Firm's own activity expectation that are positive also rebounded from the year's decline, with 17% in July expecting improvement compared to June's reading of 12%. The National Bank attributes higher commodity prices to this optimism. International dairy prices for example have more than doubled in the past year. On the other hand higher exchange rate and tighter monetary policies are countering this positive effect. Expectations of residential construction also declined. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -39.0 | -37.2 | N/A | |||
| Manufacturing saw the largest decline in confidence, while agriculture and retail showed gains according to the National Bank of New Zealand. Inflation expectations also eased to 29 from 31. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -37 | -15 | N/A | |||
| The survey was taken after the RBNZ foreign exchange intervention. It showed that pessimism increased and 37% felt business situations will worsen in the next six months. Inflation pressures are still high, but has remained stable. Manufacturers generally have a better outlook while the Construction sector overall are slightly pessimistic. As per interest expectation, 93% anticipates a rate hike within the next 12 months, but the inflation numbers suggest the RBNZ won't relax yet, but will take its time in further tightening monetary policy, according the the NZIER research organization. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -37.2 | -48.2 | N/A | |||
| The National Bank Business Confidence rebounded after previous month's fall. All components from income expectation to business conditions have improved. 37% compared to the previous 48% felt conditions will deteriorate. Many rural areas are buzzing about the exploding dairy demand which will drive more than 1% of the GDP. Commodity prices such as forestry are increasing and corporate tax cuts are being put in place. The bank's statements were very positive and glowing with optimism. There are concerns however over high inflation and productivity and only an expected modest growth of 1.5% in the economy. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -15 | 3 | N/A |