For December
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Previous Release: HTML PDF

For November
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence ebbed lower in November. A net 43 percent expect better times ahead, down 5 percentage points on October’s reading. Across the five major sub-groups we survey, only retailers recorded an increase in confidence. The construction sector had the largest drop in confidence, down 14 points, but this was coming off strong gains in the previous month. Despite the turn lower, it is hard to describe the level of confidence as anything other than healthy – with confidence being maintained at levels last seen in 1999!"

For October
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Current Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence has taken a breather after a meteoric rise. A net 48 percent expect better times ahead, down at the margin on September. The construction sector continues to set the bar in terms of poise, with a net 75 percent expecting better times ahead. Conversely, confidence eased across the service, retail and manufacturing industries. Despite the turn, the level remains robust and healthy."

For September
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence has taken another strong step forward. A net 49 percent expect better times ahead — levels not seen since 1999, as the post Asian crisis recovery took hold. Confidence was up across all sectors bar construction, but this sector still remains the most optimistic with a net 63 percent expecting better times ahead.

Once again, virtually all survey indicators improved in the month. Firms’ own activity expectations nudged up a further 6 percentage points on last month. A net 32 percent expect better times ahead. The sectoral picture is somewhat mixed with retailing and manufacturing down marginally but agriculture, construction and services rising sharply. All remain firmly in positive territory giving a uniform picture of composure. Profit expectations continue to nudge higher.

Employment intentions continue to recover — off precipitous lows. A net 2 percent expect to increase staff over the year ahead — the first positive reading in 18 months and snaps a record losing streak. "

For August
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "There seems to be no holding the economy back. Confidence surged again in August. A net 34 percent of respondents expect better times over the next 12 months, up 16 percentage points on July. The construction industry remains at the forefront of renewed optimism with a net 64 percent expecting better times ahead, levels last seen in the early 1990s.

Why the continued jump in confidence? There are a host of candidates ranging from rejuvenated confidence towards the housing market and spill over perception into the wider economy, improving global prospects, recovering equities and even the honeymoon period that the Government seems to have settled into. On top of that, we would include relief. After 18 months of recession, surely things can only get better! If we can navigate through the largest financial crisis in 80 years, with the unemployment rate rising to 6 percent and house prices only falling 10 percent, then bring it on! Damn the doomsayers, grab your wallet, we’re going shopping."

For July
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence took another big jump higher in the month, recording its highest reading since March 2002. A net 19 percent of respondents expect general business conditions to improve over the next 12 months, up 13 percentage points from the previous month. Confidence improved across all sectors, with manufacturers posting the largest increase. Surprisingly, confidence in the agriculture sector also improved, though the level remains entrenched in negative territory and rural folk remain the most pessimistic compared to other sectors."

For May
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Good news — optimists outnumber pessimists. A net 2 percent expect general business conditions to improve over the next 12 months. Confidence was up across all segments. Importantly, firms’ expectations of their own activity clawed back into positive territory. A net 4 percent of firms expect better times ahead, up from -4 percent last month. The construction sector is now the most optimistic, while retailing is the only sector expecting reduced activity.

Most other indicators in the survey also turned marginally for the better. Profit, investment and employment all ticked up. But the dog still has fleas. All remain firmly negative, and below Asian crisis levels. The outlook for profits remains weak, with a net 24 percent expecting a deterioration over the year ahead. This is naturally putting the kibosh on hiring and investing. The labour market outlook is still particularly poor. A net 16 percent of firms expect to hire fewer staff, with hiring expectations now being negative since February 2008. The economy continues to contract, it is just that the rate of descent has slowed."

For April
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence showed a marked improvement in April. A net 15 percent of respondents now expect a deterioration in business conditions over the year ahead, a significant improvement on the net 39 percent in March. This turnaround is the largest monthly improvement since December 2000.

Indeed, respondents’ own activity expectations have showed a large lift as well, from March’s net 21 percent expecting worse times over the year ahead to just a net 4 percent expecting a deterioration this month. The own activity reading may still be in negative territory, but the second derivative has shown the largest improvement since February 1993."

For March
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Business confidence remains deeply stuck in the quagmire. A net 39 percent expect a deterioration in business conditions over the year ahead compared with a net 41 percent in February. The "glass half full" proponents can view this in itself as a positive. You have to stop falling before you can rise, or crawl before you can walk. Business confidence has done precisely that, improving 2 percentage points from February.

Own activity expectations did not show the same "first step", falling a percentage point. A net 21 percent are expecting tougher times for their own business over the year ahead, a tad off December's record low reading of minus 22. But intramonth movements in both headline confidence and own activity expectations of that magnitude can easily be accounted for by typical noise, and the real message is that while conditions remain tough, at least they're not getting any worse."