Indicator Digest

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Business Confidence

Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: Eco Watchers Survey

Most Recent Release

March
8th, 2010

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

42.1

40.2

38.8

N/A

For February
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 44.8%, pr. 41.9 (Jan), 36.3 (Dec), 34.5 (Nov), 42.8 (Oct),
44.5 (Sep), 44.0 (Aug), 44.9 (Jul), 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr),
35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb), 22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct)

The Japanese leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose to a higher-than-expected 97.1 in January, an eleventh straight monthly rise, from 94.3 in December, according to preliminary January LEI data released by the Cabinet Office. The coincident index, measuring present economic activity, increased to 99.9 in January, a tenth consecutive monthly advance, from 97.4 a month earlier, registering the longest streak of gains since 1997.

Table of Past Data

	6/8	7/8	8/10	9/8	10/8	11/10	12/8	1/12	2/8	3/8

Actual	36.7	42.2	42.4	41.7	43.1	40.9	33.9	35.4	38.8	42.1
Forecast	34.0	38.1	43.4		42.5	43.9	40.3	34.2	35.9	40.2
Previous	34.2	36.7	42.2	42.4	41.7	43.1	40.9	33.9	35.4	38.8
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Secondary Indicator: BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

Most Recent Release

March
17th, 2010

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

4.3

15.3

13.2

N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Official Release: Data

Table of Past Data

	3/23	6/22	9/23	12/23	3/22	6/21	9/16	12/23	3/17

Actual	-12.9%	-15.1	-10.0	-44.5	-66.0	-13.2	15.5		4.3
Forecast		-17.0	-17.0	-12.0	-47.3		-11.4	11.2	15.3
Previous	5.2	-12.9	-15.1	-10.0	-44.5	-66.0	-13.2	15.5	13.2
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

Eco Watchers Survey

February
8th, 2010

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

38.8

35.9

35.4

N/A

For January
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 41.9, pr. 36.3 (Dec), 34.5 (Nov), 42.8 (Oct), 44.5 (Sep),
44.0 (Aug), 44.9 (Jul), 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar),
26.5 (Feb), 22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct)

Eco Watchers Survey

January
12th, 2010

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

35.4

34.2

33.9

N/A

For December
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 36.3, pr. 34.5 (Nov), 42.8 (Oct), 44.5 (Sep), 44.0 (Aug),
44.9 (Jul), 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb),
22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct), 32.1 (Sep), 32.0 (Aug)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

December
23rd, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

11.2

15.5

N/A

For 4th Quarter

Eco Watchers Survey

December
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

33.9

40.3

40.9

N/A

Eco Watchers Survey

November
10th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

40.9

43.9

43.1

N/A

Eco Watchers Survey

October
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

43.1

42.5

41.7

N/A

For September
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 44.5, pr. 44.0 (Aug), 44.9 (Jul), 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May),
39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb), 22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov),
25.2 (Oct), 32.1 (Sep), 32.0 (Aug), 30.8 (Jul)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

September
16th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

15.5

-11.4

-13.2

N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Previous Release: Data

BSI Large All Industry: 0.3, pr. -22.4 (2Q), -51.3 (1Q), -35.7 (4Q),
-10.2 (3Q), -15.2 (2Q), -9.3% (1Q)

Eco Watchers Survey

September
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

41.7

42.4

N/A

For August
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 44.0, pr. 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar),
26.5 (Feb), 22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct),
32.1 (Sep), 32.0 (Aug), 30.8 (Jul)

Eco Watchers Survey

August
10th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

42.4

43.4

42.2

N/A

For July
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: pr. 45.6 (Jun), 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb),
22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct), 32.1 (Sep),
32.0 (Aug), 30.8 (Jul)

The Economy Watchers Index edged up to a 22-month high of 42.4 in July from 42.2 in June. This however was less than the 43.4 economists had expected. Prime Minister Taro Aso's 25 trillion yen stimulus is keeping sentiments afloat but there is gloom ahead as salaries are being cut and the jobless rate is climbing.

Eco Watchers Survey

July
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

42.2

38.1

36.7

N/A

For June
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 45.6, pr. 43.3 (May), 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb),
22.1 (Jan), 17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct), 32.1 (Sep),
32.0 (Aug), 30.8 (Jul)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

June
21st, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-13.2

-66.0

N/A

For 2st Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Official Release: Data

BSI Large All Industry: -22.4, pr. -51.3 (1Q), -35.7 (4Q), -10.2 (3Q),
-15.2 (2Q), -9.3% (1Q)

Eco Watchers Survey

June
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

36.7

34.0

34.2

N/A

For May
Provided by: Economy Watchers

Outlook: 43.3, pr. 39.7 (Apr), 35 (Mar), 26.5 (Feb), 22.1 (Jan),
17.6 (Dec), 24.7 (Nov), 25.2 (Oct), 32.1 (Sep), 32.0 (Aug),
30.8 (Jul)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

March
22nd, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-66.0

-47.3

-44.5

N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Official Release: Data

BSI Large All Industry: -51.3, pr. -35.7 (4Q), -10.2 (3Q), -15.2 (2Q),
-9.3% (1Q)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

December
23rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-44.5

-12.0

-10.0

N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Official Release: Data

BSI Large All Industry: -35.7, pr. -10.2 (3Q), -15.2 (2Q), -9.3% (1Q)

Confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell the most on record in the 4th quarter, as exports collapsed amid a deepening global recession. The BSI sentiment index fell to -44.5 this quarter compared with -10 in the 3rd quarter. Exports were down 26.7% on the year in November as demand from the US, Europe and even China plummeted. With the Japanese Yen appreciating strongly in the second half of the year as a result of the financial crisis, it means Japanese goods will be more expensive abroad further depressing export growth. Consumers and companies within Japan are cutting back on spending as well, as households save in the face of increasing unemployment and a recession. Companies are expected to scale back investment spending this year by 2.4% the survey showed which would make it the first time since the BSI survey began in June 2004.

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

September
23rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-10.0

-17.0

-15.1

N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Official Release: Data

BSI Large All Industry (1Q): -10.2, pr. -15.2 (2Q), -9.3% (1Q)

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

June
22nd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-15.1

-17.0

-12.9

N/A

For 2nd Quarter

BSI Large All Industry (1Q): -15.2, pr. -9.3% (1Q)

Sentiment among large companies in Japan fell to -15.1 for the 2nd quarter, which is the lowest since this series began being kept in its current form in 2004. The index subtracts the percentage of large companies reporting deteriorating business conditions from the percentage of those reporting improvement and covers 14,900 companies. Smaller companies are having a hard time as they face rising input costs and in an environment of slowing growth are unable to raise prices for fear sales will falter. Companies see weaker corporate profits ahead with manufacturers the most pessimistic.

BSI Large Manufacturing q/q

March
23rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-12.9%

5.2

N/A

For 1st Quarter

BSI Large All Industry (1Q): -9.3%, pr 0.5%