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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.5 | 43.5 | 45.1 | N/A | ||
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For March
Current Conditions: -51.9, forecast -52, pr. -54.8 (Feb), -56.6 (Jan),
The ZEW confidence index fell for a sixth straight month for the
March period as the troubles round Greece continued during the month
and has shaken up financial markets to the point at which it affected
the recovery of the Euro-zone. However, the index did not slide as much
as forecast which could mean that the fallout has been factored in and
that investors and analysts are again looking at the fundamentals which
showed some improvement recently, as in the industrial production data
released last week. Also today, European finance ministers came
together on a strategy for emergency loans to Greece in case its plan
to cut its budget deficit fails. Those two pieces of news gave the Euro
some support, helping it to pare its losses from yesterday's session
and push above the 1.37 level again against the Dollar.
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| 6/16 | 7/14 | 8/18 | 9/15 | 10/13 | 11/10 | 12/15 | 1/19 | 2/16 | 3/16 | ||
| Actual | 44.8 | 39.5 | 56.1 | 57.7 | 56.0 | 51.1 | 50.4 | 47.2 | 45.1 | 44.5 | |
| Forecast | 35.0 | 48.0 | 45.2 | 60.0 | 58.8 | 55.0 | 50.0 | 49.9 | 42.5 | 43.5 | |
| Previous | 31.1 | 44.8 | 39.5 | 56.1 | 57.7 | 56.9 | 51.1 | 50.4 | 47.2 | 45.1 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 95.2 | 96.3 | 95.8 | N/A | ||
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For February
Current Conditions: 89.8, pr. 91.2 (Jan), 90.5 (Dec), 89.1 (Nov),
Expectations Index: 100.9, pr. 100.6 (Jan) 99.1 (Dec),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany clouded over somewhat in February. For the first time in ten months, the business climate index has not risen. Responsible for this decline is especially the situation in retailing, which experienced a setback in February. On the whole, the firms have assessed their current business situation somewhat more unfavourably than in the previous month. They regard their business outlook for the coming half year slightly more favourably than in January. The economic recovery is expected to continue when winter is over." |
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| 5/25 | 6/22 | 7/24 | 8/26 | 9/24 | 10/23 | 11/24 | 12/18 | 1/26 | 2/23 | ||
| Actual | 84.2 | 85.9 | 87.3 | 90.5 | 91.3 | 91.9 | 93.9 | 94.7 | 95.8 | 95.2 | |
| Forecast | 85.1 | 85.1 | 86.6 | 89.1 | 92.1 | 92.0 | 92.6 | 94.6 | 95.2 | 96.3 | |
| Previous | 83.7 | 84.2 | 85.9 | 87.3 | 90.5 | 91.3 | 91.9 | 93.9 | 94.6 | 95.8 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 94.7 | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 45.1 | 42.5 | 47.2 | N/A | ||
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For February
Current Conditions: -54.8, forecast -53, pr. -56.6 (Jan),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased by 2.1 points in February 2010. The indicator now stands at 45.1 points after 47.2 points in the previous month. This value is well above the indicator's historical average of 27.1 points. Thus, the financial market experts expect the economy to recover slowly from the crisis within the next six months. Nevertheless, prospects for the retail and consumer goods sector and for the automotive industry remain poor. Moreover, compared to the previous month the experts utter a more pessimistic, though generally positive view towards the business conditions in the export-oriented steel and chemicals sectors. "Expectations remain without greater movements on an acceptable level. Though we have passed through the deepest valleys of the depression, the worries about the labour market, budget deficits and the euro have not lessened. There is the option that economic activity will move sideways with only minor ups and downs," says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 95.8 | 95.2 | 94.6 | 94.7 | ||
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For January
Current Conditions: 91.2, pr. 90.5 (Dec), 89.1 (Nov), 87.3 (Oct),
Expectations Index: 100.6, pr. 99.1 (Dec), 98.9 (Nov), 96.8 (Oct),
The Ifo Institute measure of German business confidence rose more than expected in January, with the index posting an 18-month highof 95.8. Confidence was higher as the global economic recovery helped to boost exports to Asian markets. Stronger exports are helping to offset weaker domestic spending as a result of higher unemployment, and should ensure that the German economy, the largest in the Euro-zone will continue to show expansion. The government's target for growth in 2010 was raised lasta week to 1.5%. Last year the economy shrank 5%. From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany brightened once again in January. The current business situation of the firms has further improved. With regard to the business outlook for the coming half year the surveyed firms are more confident than before. The economic recovery continues at the beginning of the New Year.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 47.2 | 49.9 | 50.4 | N/A | ||
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For January
Current Conditions: -56.6, pr. -60.6 (Dec), -65.6 (Nov), -72.2 (Oct),
From the Release: "The development of the indicator suggests that the surveyed financial market experts expect the German economy to recover only at a slow rate within the next six months. According to the experts, the automobile and consumption sector is likely to develop downwards in the next half year. Business expectations for the German machinery sector, in contrast, considerably improved this month. "The assessment of the financial market experts suggests that we will see an economic recovery in 2010 at best, but not a clear economic upswing. The way out of the recession is burdensome and long", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 94.7 | 94.6 | 93.9 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50.4 | 50.0 | 51.1 | N/A | ||
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For December
Current Conditions: -60.6, pr. -65.6 (Nov), -72.2 (Oct), -74.0 (Sep),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased slightly by 0.7 points in December 2009. The indicator now stands at 50.4 points after 51.1 points in the previous month. This value is still well above the indicator's historical average of 27.0 points. Similar to the last two months, the economic expectations for Germany slightly receded, but still remain on a high level. This indicates that the financial experts still reckon with a slow economic recovery. Their optimism, on the one hand, may result from rising exports. On the other hand, investment demand seems to stabilise. "We are still at the bottom of a recession. Next year, we will see a recovery, but not an economic upswing. The recovery is mainly driven by exports. How strong investments will contribute to economic growth in 2010, depends on bank lending. Banks, however, still face the difficult task to clean up their balance sheet", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 93.9 | 92.6 | 91.9 | N/A | ||
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For November
Current Conditions: 89.1, forecast 88.0, pr. 87.3 (Oct), 87.0 (Sep),
Expectations Index: 98.9, forecast 97.3, pr. 96.8 (Oct), 95.7 (Sep),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany clearly improved again in November. The firms are again not quite so dissatisfied with their current business situation. Also their view of the business outlook in the coming six months is more favourable than in October. The positive and negative business expectations now balance out. The German economy continues on the road to recovery." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 51.1 | 55.0 | 56.9 | N/A | ||
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For November
Current Conditions: -65.6, pr. -72.2 (Oct), -74.0 (Sep), -77.2 (Aug),
From the Release: "The economic expectations for Germany are still on a high level. However, the sentiment of the financial experts has slightly weakened. At present, it is still uncertain how private consumption will evolve. The gradually increasing price level and the uncertain situation on the labour market may dampen consumption. On the other hand, the continuous improvement of German exports feds optimism and strengthens economic growth. "The upward trend of the economic expectations is interrupted for the time being. The surveyed financial market experts signal that they do not count on a strong boost for economic growth in the next year. It rather seems that economic recovery will proceed in small steps", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 91.9 | 92.0 | 91.3 | N/A | ||
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For October
Current Conditions: 87.3, forecast 87.9, pr. 87.0 (Sep), 86.1 (Aug),
Expectations Index: 96.8, forecast 96.2, pr. 95.7 (Sep), 95.0 (Aug),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 56.0 | 58.8 | 57.7 | N/A | ||
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For October
Current Conditions: -72.2, pr. -74.0 (Sep), -77.2 (Aug), -89.3 (Jul),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany remains almost unchanged in October 2009. It slightly declines by 1.7 points and now stands at 56.0 points after 57.7 points in the previous month. This value is still well above the indicator's historical average of 26.7 points. The current assessment of the financial market experts has likely been influenced by various facts. Once again the increase in incoming orders should have had a positive impact. The recent decline of exports, however, should have weakened economic expectations for Germany. Furthermore, it is still uncertain how private consumption will develop over the next months." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 91.3 | 92.1 | 90.5 | N/A | ||
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For September
Current Conditions: 87.0, pr. 86.1 (Aug), 84.3 (July), 82.4 (Jun),
Expectations Index: 95.7, pr. 95.0 (Aug), 90.4 (July), 89.5 (Jun),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has brightened further in September. Appraisals of the business situation and outlook have improved. However, by far the greater number of firms still assesses the business situation as poor. Only with regard to the six-month business outlook is there now nearly a balance between pessimists and optimists. In light of the catastrophic developments over the past twelve months, this is good news." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 57.7 | 60.0 | 56.1 | N/A | ||
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For September
Current Conditions: -74.0, pr. -77.2 (Aug), -89.3 (Jul), -89.7 (Jun),
The German ZEW economic sentiment rose 1.6 points to 57.7 for the September period. That is the highest the index has been in 3-years. Improving factory orders, exports and business confidence suggest growth in the economy is accelerating after Germany exited its recession in the 2nd quarter. The index is closely watched as it is a survey of investment professionals and can give good insight into analysts' expectations. Still, the rise in the index was smaller than expected, which weakened European stocks and pressured the Euro in overnight trading.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 90.5 | 89.1 | 87.3 | N/A | ||
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For August
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 86.1, pr. 84.3 (July), 82.4 (Jun), 82.5 (May),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in August. For the second time in succession the firms have assessed their current business situation clearly less negatively. However, in comparison to conditions one year ago, the situation of the firms is still considerably worse at the moment. With regard to business developments in the coming half year, the survey participants are less sceptical than in July. The German economy is slowly recovering from its descent." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 56.1 | 45.2 | 39.5 | N/A | ||
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For August
Current Conditions: -77.2, pr. -89.3 (Jul), -89.7 (Jun), -92.8 (May),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased considerably in August 2009. The indicator rose by 16.6 points and now stands at 56.1 points after 39.5 points in the previous month. This value is well above the indicator's historical average of 26.5 points. Positive growth figures for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter 2009 have led to a better assessment of the current economic situation in Germany. A repeated rise of incoming orders and increasing exports have brightened the economic perspectives for Germany in the next months. In line with the increase of the overall economic expectations for Germany the expectations for all surveyed sectors of the German economy and for the export-oriented sectors particularly, have noticeably improved." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 87.3 | 86.6 | 85.9 | N/A | ||
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For July
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 84.3, pr. 82.4 (Jun), 82.5 (May), 83.6 (Apr),
Expectations Index: 90.4, pr. 89.5 (Jun), 85.9 (May), 83.9 (Apr),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose again in July. The firms are no longer quite so dissatisfied with their current business situation as in the previous month. They are again less sceptical regarding business developments in the coming half year. It seems that the economy is gaining traction. In manufacturing the business climate has improved. The firms report a business situation that is no longer quite so poor. With regard to the business outlook their estimations are yet again less critical." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 39.5 | 48.0 | 44.8 | N/A | ||
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For July
Current Conditions: -89.3 (July), pr. -89.7 (Jun), -92.8 (May), -91.6 (Apr), -89.4 (Mar),
Instead of an expected rise in sentiments, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany fell to 39.5 in July. The current conditions index edged down slightly. Germany's lending programs to firms and households are what economists are looking at when assessing weather the economy will recover. At the moment it seems like the recession will be longer than many opinionated in the past month. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 85.9 | 85.1 | 84.2 | N/A | ||
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For June
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 82.4, pr. 82.5 (May), 83.6 (Apr), 82.7 (Mar),
Expectations Index: 89.5, pr. 85.9 (May), 83.9 (Apr), 81.6 (Mar),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in June. The brightening was solely the result of the firms’ expectations – the pessimism of the survey participants with regard to the six-month business outlook has again weakened. Their dissatisfaction with the current business situation is just as strong as it was in May. The survey results confirm that the German economy is gradually stabilising. In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose. The survey participants have appraised their current business situation somewhat less unfavourably than in the previous month. Nevertheless, the manufacturers are largely dissatisfied with their present situation. However, a further worsening of business in the coming six months is no longer expected quite so frequently as in the previous month." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.8 | 35.0 | 31.1 | N/A | ||
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For June
Current Conditions: -89.7, pr. -92.8 (May), -91.6 (Apr), -89.4 (Mar),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany improved in June 2009. This is the eighth month in a row with an increase. The indicator rose by 13.7 points and now stands at 44.8 points after 31.1 points in the previous month. This value is above the indicator's historical average of 26.3 points. The repeated recovery of economic sentiment reveals a consolidating optimism among the financial market experts, even though the industrial production and incoming orders do not yet show a clear upward trend. The surveyed experts also show an increasing confidence in the further development of the banking sector. This can be seen as a positive signal with respect to future lending conditions by banks." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 84.2 | 85.1 | 83.7 | N/A | ||
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For May
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 82.5, pr. 83.6 (Apr), 82.7 (Mar), 84.3 (Feb),
86.8 (Jan),
Expectations Index: 85.9, pr. 83.9 (Apr), 81.6 (Mar), 80.9 (Feb), 79.4 (Jan),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate
Index for industry and trade in Germany rose once again in May.
Although the firms have again assessed their current business situation
more unfavourably than in the previous month, they have given clearly
fewer poor assessments of their six-month business outlook. This points
to a gradual stabilisation of economic output at a low level.
In manufacturing the business climate remains unchanged. The
manufacturers report a clearly poorer business situation than in April
but they expect a not quite so unfavourable course of business in the
coming half year. They see their export opportunities less negatively
than in previous surveys. Personnel is to be reduced less strongly as
previously planned."
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