Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.
Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.8 | 35.0 | 31.1 | N/A | ||
|
For June
Current Conditions: -89.7, pr. -92.8 (May), -91.6 (Apr), -89.4 (Mar),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany improved in June 2009. This is the eighth month in a row with an increase. The indicator rose by 13.7 points and now stands at 44.8 points after 31.1 points in the previous month. This value is above the indicator's historical average of 26.3 points. The repeated recovery of economic sentiment reveals a consolidating optimism among the financial market experts, even though the industrial production and incoming orders do not yet show a clear upward trend. The surveyed experts also show an increasing confidence in the further development of the banking sector. This can be seen as a positive signal with respect to future lending conditions by banks." |
|||||
| 9/16 | 10/14 | 11/11 | 12/9 | 1/20 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/21 | 5/19 | 6/16 | ||
| Actual | -41.1 | -63.0 | -53.5 | -45.2 | -31.0 | -5.8 | -3.5 | 13.0 | 31.1 | 44.8 | |
| Forecast | -53.0 | -51.1 | -62.5 | -55.0 | -42.5 | -26.5 | -7.5 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | |
| Previous | -55.5 | -41.1 | -63.0 | -53.5 | -45.2 | -31.0 | -5.8 | -3.5 | 13.0 | 31.1 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 85.9 | 85.1 | 84.2 | N/A | ||
|
For June
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 82.4, pr. 82.5 (May), 83.6 (Apr), 82.7 (Mar),
Expectations Index: 89.5, pr. 85.9 (May), 83.9 (Apr), 81.6 (Mar),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in June. The brightening was solely the result of the firms’ expectations – the pessimism of the survey participants with regard to the six-month business outlook has again weakened. Their dissatisfaction with the current business situation is just as strong as it was in May. The survey results confirm that the German economy is gradually stabilising. In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose. The survey participants have appraised their current business situation somewhat less unfavourably than in the previous month. Nevertheless, the manufacturers are largely dissatisfied with their present situation. However, a further worsening of business in the coming six months is no longer expected quite so frequently as in the previous month." |
|||||
| 9/24 | 10/27 | 11/24 | 12/18 | 1/27 | 2/24 | 3/25 | 4/24 | 5/25 | 6/22 | ||
| Actual | 92.9 | 90.2 | 85.8 | 82.6 | 83.0 | 82.6 | 82.1 | 83.7 | 84.2 | 85.9 | |
| Forecast | 94.2 | 91.2 | 88.8 | 84.0 | 81.0 | 83.2 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 85.1 | 85.1 | |
| Previous | 94.8 | 92.9 | 90.2 | 85.8 | 82.6 | 83.0 | 82.6 | 82.1 | 83.7 | 84.2 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 84.2 | 85.1 | 83.7 | N/A | ||
|
For May
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 82.5, pr. 83.6 (Apr), 82.7 (Mar), 84.3 (Feb),
86.8 (Jan),
Expectations Index: 85.9, pr. 83.9 (Apr), 81.6 (Mar), 80.9 (Feb), 79.4 (Jan),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate
Index for industry and trade in Germany rose once again in May.
Although the firms have again assessed their current business situation
more unfavourably than in the previous month, they have given clearly
fewer poor assessments of their six-month business outlook. This points
to a gradual stabilisation of economic output at a low level.
In manufacturing the business climate remains unchanged. The
manufacturers report a clearly poorer business situation than in April
but they expect a not quite so unfavourable course of business in the
coming half year. They see their export opportunities less negatively
than in previous surveys. Personnel is to be reduced less strongly as
previously planned."
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 31.1 | 20.0 | 13.0 | N/A | ||
|
For May
Current Conditions: -92.8, pr. -91.6 (Apr), -89.4 (Mar), -86.2 (Feb),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany continued to improve in May 2009. The indicator rose by 18.1 points and now stands at 31.1 points after 13.0 points in the previous month. This is above its historical average of 26.2 points. The optimism of the financial experts is supported by modest signs of a recovery of the real economy over the last weeks. The strong decline of industrial production, for example, has come to an end and exports and incoming orders have started to rise again. "With regard merely to the economic activity, more and more signs indicate that the worst seems to be over. However, with regard to the labour market development the worst still seems to come", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz. The May assessment of the current economic situation in Germany remains almost unchanged on a very low level. The corresponding indicator dropped only slightly by 1.2 points to minus 92.8 points." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 83.7 | 82.4 | 82.1 | N/A | ||
|
For April
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 83.6, forecast 82.1, pr. 82.7 (Mar), 84.3 (Feb),
Expectations Index: 83.9, forecast 82.6, pr. 81.6 (Mar), 80.9 (Feb),
The IFO business climate index rebounded from its record low of 82.1 in March to post an improved 83.7 in April. The index rose more than expected as interest rate cuts and government stimulus packages boosted the hopes that the recession will ease the rest of 2009. Still, the German economy is expected to contract as much a 6% this year.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 13.0 | 2.0 | -3.5 | N/A | ||
|
For April
Current Conditions: -91.6, forecast -90.0, pr. -89.4 (Mar), -86.2 (Feb),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany continued to improve in April 2009. It rose by 16.5 points and now stands at 13.0 points after minus 3.5 points in the previous month. For the first time since July 2007, the indicator realises a positive value, albeit it is still below its historical average of 26.1 points. The sentiment indicator is positively affected by the government stimulus packages, which are increasingly effective. Furthermore, low inflation rates support private consumption. According to the financial market experts, the economic outlook for the United States has improved, too. In addition, there are some slightly positive impulses from other countries such as China." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 82.1 | 82.2 | 82.6 | N/A | ||
|
For March
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 82.7, forecast 82.5, pr. 84.3 (Feb), 86.8 (Jan),
Expectations Index: 81.6, forecast 81.5, pr. 80.9 (Feb), 79.4 (Jan),
German business confidence declined slightly in March, with the general business index sliding to 82.1 from 82.6. That put the index at a 26-year low. Current conditions continue to slide, while future expectations rose again. The recession that the Euro-zone is experiencing is forcing a sharp cut back in production, which is translating to increased job cuts which puts less money into consumers pockets. In addition demand from abroad has dried up as key trading partners face their own recessions. Still, the outlook for the future seems to be brighter, and businesses seem to be hunkering down in order to ride out the next several months of weak activity. From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has cooled again somewhat in March. The firms have reported a further worsening of their current business situation. With regard to the business outlook for the coming six months, they are again slightly less pessimistic. However, the firms do not expect a significant improvement in their business situation. An economic turning point has not yet been reached, in the opinion of the survey participants." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.5 | -7.5 | -5.8 | N/A | ||
|
For March
Current Conditions: -89.4, forecast -90.0, pr. -86.2 (Feb), -77.1 (Jan),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased slightly in March 2009. The indicator rose by 2.3 points and now stands at minus 3.5 points after minus 5.8 points in the previous month. This is still well below its historical average of 26.2 points. The indicator's upward movement, which was very dynamic during the last four months, slowed down in March. However, the impression strengthens that the experts are more hopeful with respect to the economic development in Germany on a six months time horizon. The renewed interest rate cut by the ECB und lower prices for raw materials and food may explain the experts' more optimistic view. "According to the financial market experts, the economic slowdown is gradually phasing out. The bottom of the recession is likely to be reached this summer. The economic situation is extremely bad, but there are first signs of hope. They should not be played down", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 82.6 | 83.2 | 83.0 | N/A | ||
|
For February
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Current Conditions: 84.3, forecast 84.9, pr. 86.8 (Jan), 88.8 (Dec),
Expectations Index: 80.9, forecast 81.1, pr. 79.4 (Jan), 76.8 (Dec),
The German IFO business climate index fell to a record low in February, notching down to 82.6 from January's 83.0. The assessment of current conditions slid lower, while the index that measures business expectations over the next six months improved for a second straight month. Manufacturing and wholesalers saw confidence fall, while retailers and construction improved, though from very low levels.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -5.8 | -26.5 | -31.0 | N/A | ||
|
For February
Current Conditions: -86.2, forecast -82.0, pr. -77.1 (Jan), -64.5 (Dec),
German investor confidence surprised forecasts on the upside, increasing form -31 last month to -5.8 in February. That was the biggest one month jump in 15 years. It's a response to stepped up efforts by the government to bolster the economy, and signals from the ECB that it will cut rates to a record low in March. Hopes are that the next few months will show weak economic activity, but that the economy will begin to recover in mid-2009.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 83.0 | 81.0 | 82.6 | N/A | ||
|
For January
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Official Release: HTML PDF
Expectations Index: 79.4, forecast 77.5, pr. 76.8 (Dec), 77.6 (Nov),
Current Conditions: 86.8, forecast 85.0, pr. 88.8 (Dec), 94.8 (Nov),
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved very slightly in January. Following a strong decline in the last year, the Business Climate Index continues at a low level. The two components of the Business Climate changed in different ways: Whereas the firms again assessed the current situation as worse, they are a little less sceptical about their business in the next six months. A cyclical turnaround cannot be derived from this. The firms in manufacturing report another worsened business situation. Fewer firms than in the past survey are negative regarding their business outlook in the next half year. But on the whole, the manufacturers continue to expect a very unfavourable business development... In retailing the business climate improved. The retailers regard their present situation as well as their outlook less negatively than in December. The Business Climate Index in wholesaling and construction rose marginally." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -31.0 | -42.5 | -45.2 | N/A | ||
|
For January
Current Conditions: -77.1, forecast -73.0, pr. -64.5 (Dec), -50.4 (Nov),
From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in January 2009 once again. The indicator rose by 14.2 points and now stands at minus 31.0 points after minus 45.2 points in the previous month. This is still well below its historical average of 26.5 points. The considerable improvement of the indicator might partly be attributed to the second economic stimulus package of the German government. A separate analysis of the business expectations for particular branches of the economy shows that the surveyed experts reckon with positive effects of the stimulus package especially in the construction sector. Moreover, the ECB policy of lowering interest rates should stabilise the economy. The financial analysts share the optimism of recent economic forecasts predicting that economic perspectives should improve from the mid of this year. These expectations have to be seen against the background of the current economic situation which is assessed to have deteriorated further this month. Economic policy can try to mitigate the strength of the economic downturn by currently accepting higher expenditures and lower revenues caused by the economic slowdown. Economic policy should also bring forward investments and tax reforms that improve economic growth perspectives. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 82.6 | 84.0 | 85.8 | N/A | ||
|
For December
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: PDF
Expectations Index: 76.8, pr. 77.6 (Nov), 81.4 (Oct), 86.5 (Sep),
German business confidence continued to deteriorate in the December period, with the index falling to its lowest level since November 1982. The IFo business climate fell to 82.6 from 85.8. The effects of the financial crisis, which cut off easy access to credit, has roiled consumers and businesses in the Euro-zone, and in its largest economy Germany. Next year could see the worst contraction in growth in Germany since 1993, as a fall in exports combines with weak domestic spending. From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has clearly fallen in December, continuing its decline of more than one year. The dominant feature of the December decline is the worsening of the firms’ current business situation. With regard to the six-month business outlook, the scepticism of the survey participants remains nearly unchanged. A similarly low level of the business climate index was last reached during the second oil crisis at the end of 1982. The downturn is affecting above all the manufacturers of export and capital goods and less, up until now, retailing and construction.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -45.2 | -55.0 | -53.5 | N/A | ||
|
For December
Current Conditions: -64.5, forecast -60.0, pr. -50.4 (Nov), -35.9 (Oct),
German investor confidence surprised forecasts on the upside, and rose for a second straight month, bringing the sentiment index to -45.2. It reflects a positive reaction to the ECB's recent interest rate cuts which included an unprecedented 75 point basis cut last week and to recent measures announced by the government. That includes a $41 billion stimulus plan passed on December 5th. Lower interest rates and government action join falling oil prices and a weaker Euro in helping to calm some of the pessimism seen recently, though this index of sentiment is one of the few indicators showing a silver lining to German economic data. Current conditions slumped to -64.5.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 85.8 | 88.8 | 90.2 | N/A | ||
|
For November
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: PDF
Expectations Index: 77.6, pr. 81.4 (Oct), 86.5 (Sep), 87.0 (Aug), 90.0 (Jul),
German business confidence slumped to a 16-year low in November, as weaker global activity hurt German exports and other sectors. The business climate index dropped to 85.8 from 90.2 in October. Orders are declining, forcing companies to scale back production. The data puts extra pressure on the ECB to act by lowering interest rates another 75 basis points in their next meeting.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -53.5 | -62.5 | -63.0 | N/A | ||
|
For November
Current Conditions: -50.4, forecast -45.0, pr. -35.9 (Oct), -1.0 (Sep) From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in November 2008 by 9.5 points. The indicator now stands at minus 53.5 points after minus 63.0 points in the previous month. This is still well below its historical average of 27.1 points. The increase of the economic sentiment indicator partly corrects the considerable decline of expectations following the turbulences on the financial markets in the previous month. The rescue package of the German government for the financial sector and the planned economic stimulus package seem to have slightly raised the confidence of the financial market experts compared to the previous month. Moreover, the worldwide interest rate cuts might also slow down the economic downturn. "The earlier pessimistic expectations of the financial market experts are confirmed by the current economic development in Germany. The experts, however, seem hopeful that the collective actions of governments and central banks will mitigate the economic slowdown", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 90.2 | 91.2 | 92.9 | N/A | ||
|
For October
Provided by: Institute of Economic Research Current Release: PDF
Expectations Index: 81.4, pr. 86.5 (Sep), 87.0 (Aug), 90.0 (Jul),
German firms are anticipating declines in business activity in the upcoming 6 month. The Business climate index dropped for the 5th straight month to 90.2, the lowest since the nation was reunified in 1990. Although the current conditions index actually edged up from 99.8 to 99.9, the expectations index plunged to 81.4, also the lowest since reunification. Businesses in this largest Eurozone economy are gearing up for a deep recession by cutting down spending and production, and reducing employment levels. Economists have forecasted a drop in the index, but the figures came out worse than expected. From the Release: "In manufacturing the decline in the business climate index has continued. The current business situation has again been assessed by the firms as more unfavourable than the previous month although on the whole as satisfactory. However, they anticipate a clear worsening of their business over the coming six months. Exports will weaken in the opinion of the surveyed manufacturers. Their production capacities are being utilised at a clearly lower rate and they are no longer planning to hire additional personnel. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -63.0 | -51.1 | -41.1 | N/A | ||
|
For October
Current Conditions: -35.9, forecast -15.0, pr. -1.0 Taken before the recent Euro-zone steps to stem the credit crisis, the ZEW survey showed a deterioration in investor confidence for the October period. It was the first time in three months that the index had dropped. The financial crisis is to blame, as the financial sector's woes will translate into weaker growth in the real economy. Slower global growth will weigh down German exports, a main driver of economic activity. Expectations are that the ECB will follow through with its .50% rate cut from last week with at least another quarter point reduction by December.
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 92.9 | 94.2 | 94.8 | N/A | ||
|
For September
Expectations Index: 86.5, pr. 87.0 (Aug), 90.0 (Jul), 94.7 (Jun), 97.3 (May)
From the Release: "The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has again cooled in September. The
In manufacturing the business climate index has again fallen. The firms have reported a considerably less favourable business situation, and more now anticipate a poorer business development over the coming six months. They are more reserved with regard to their export opportunities. Very few firms still plan to hire additional staff. Only in construction has the business climate index risen slightly, with contractors appraising the current business situation as well as the six-month outlook somewhat more favourably. In retailing, however, the business climate has cooled for the fourth time in succession. Retailers have assessed the current business situation clearly more negatively, but they are not as pessimistic regarding the sixmonth outlook as they were in August. In wholesaling, the business climate has also worsened. Both the current situation as well as the business outlook have been assessed more cautiously by the wholesalers." |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -41.1 | -53.0 | -55.5 | N/A | ||
|
For September
Current Situation: -1.0, forecast -15.0, pr. -9.2 (Aug), 17.0 (Jul), 37.6 (Jun) The ZEW measure of sentiment of financial professionals surprised forecasts on the upside, improving by 14.4 points. It however, remains well below the historical average of 28.0.
|
|||||