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Business Confidence
Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: ZEW Economic Sentiment

Most Recent Release

September
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-40.9 -55.0 -55.7 N/A

For September
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone improved in September as well. The indicator rose by 14.8 points and now stands at minus 40.9 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone increased by 12.2 points and now stands at minus 10.0 points."

Table of Past Data

12/111/152/123/114/155/206/177/158/199/16
Actual-35.7-41.7-41.4-35.0-44.8-43.6-52.7-63.7-55.7-40.9
Forecast-34.0-37.8-43.0-42.0-33.0-44.2-43.9-56.0-65.0-55.0
Previous-30.0-35.7-41.7-41.4-35.0-44.8-43.6-52.7-63.7-55.7
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Business Climate Indicator

Most Recent Release

September
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.79 -0.5 -0.28 -0.33

For September
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release: " The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased significantly to values last observed in 2003. The low level of the indicator suggests that industrial activity remains subdued.

Four out of five underlying components of the BCI declined. The decline was fairly sharp for managers' assessment of production trend observed in recent months, total order books and export order books; while their assessment of stocks of finished products worsened only slightly and production expectations remained unchanged."

Table of Past Data

11/301/72/293/314/305/296/277/308/299/29
Actual1.040.920.720.800.440.540.14-0.21-0.33-0.79
Forecast0.790.900.750.700.690.410.40-0.02-0.30-0.5
Previous0.871.040.780.720.790.440.540.14-0.21-0.28
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A0.80N/AN/AN/AN/A-0.33

Past Releases

Business Climate Indicator
August
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.33 -0.30 -0.21 N/A

For August
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "After a fall below its long-term average in July, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased again in August. The low level of the indicator suggests that industrial activity remains subdued. Four out of five underlying components of the BCI declined. Industrial managers' production expectations deteriorated most, but their assessment of stocks of finished products, total order books, and export order books also declined. Their assessment of production trend observed in recent months was the only component to improve."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
August
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-55.7 -65.0 -63.7 N/A

For August
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

See "GER ZEW Economic Sentiment" for more commentary. 

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone improved in August as well. The indicator increased by 8.0 points and now stands at minus 55.7 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone decreased by 18.9 points and now stands at minus 22.2 points."

Business Climate Indicator
July
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.21 -0.02 0.14 N/A

For July
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area continued to decline and now stands below its long-term average. The low level of the indicator suggests that economic activity in industry, which saw a fall in production in May, remains subdued.

All the five underlying components of the BCI registered a decrease. Industrial managers' production expectations and their appraisal of total order books deteriorated most, but their assessment of production trend observed in recent months and export order books also declined significantly. Their assessment of stocks of finished products worsened only slightly." 

ZEW Economic Sentiment
July
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-63.7 -56.0 -52.7 N/A

For July
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone declined significantly in July as well. The indicator decreased by 11.0 points and now stands at minus 63.7 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 11.2 points and now stands at minus 3.3 points."

Business Climate Indicator
June
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.14 0.40 0.54 N/A

For June
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "After a rebound in May, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased in June. The current level of the indicator suggests that industrial production growth weakened in the second quarter of this year, although it still points to a production growth rate which is above its historical average.

All the five underlying components of the BCI registered a decrease. The industrial managers' appraisal of the production trend in recent months and their total order books deteriorated sharply, while their assessment of the stocks of finished products, production expectations and export order books declined moderately."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
June
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-52.7 -43.9 -43.6 N/A
Business Climate Indicator
May
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.54 0.41 0.44 N/A

For May
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Though the Business Climate Index stayed near its lowest level since early 2006, this month saw an improvement compared to April. The BCI increased to 0.54 on manager's appraisals of production. As the report states however, the low levels point to a weaker 2nd quarter. 

From the Release: "After a drop in April, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area picked up slightly in May. Nonetheless, the downward trend of the BCI and the deceleration in industrial production registered in March point to a weakening of industrial activity in the second quarter of 2008.

The increase in the BCI is mainly due to an improvement in industry managers' appraisals of the production trend in recent months. Managers' assessments of their export order books deteriorated slightly, while their production expectations and their views on total order books and stocks of finished products remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
May
20th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-43.6 -44.2 -44.8 N/A

For May
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

The ZEW Economic Sentiment improved slightly in May, and beat expectations of a smaller increase. Expectations increased while the current economic situation fell. 

From the Release: "Economic expectations for the euro zone stabilized in May. The indicator slightly increased by 1.2 points and now stands at minus 43.6 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 4.1 points and now stands at 11.4 points."

Business Climate Indicator
April
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.44 0.69 0.79 0.80

For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "After a slight rebound in March, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased again in April. The current level of the indicator still continues to suggest above historical average industrial production growth, but the decline points to a weakening of the monthly growth rates in the second quarter of 2008.

Nearly all the components of the BCI worsened, production expectations being the only exception, which remained unchanged. Industry managers' appraisals of the production trend in recent months and of their total order books deteriorated sharply. Their assessments concerning export order books and stocks of finished products declined more moderately." 

ZEW Economic Sentiment
April
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-44.8 -33.0 -35.0 N/A

For April
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Just like in Germany, the economic expectations of financial analysts in the Euro-zone worsened in April. The ZEW indicator decreased considerably by 9.8 points and now stands at -44.8 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 3.9 points and now stands at 15.5 points. 

Business Climate Indicator
March
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.80 0.70 0.72 N/A

For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

"After having decreased for three months in a row, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area rebounded in March. The relatively high level of the indicator points to sustained industrial production growth in the first quarter of this year, in line with the increase recorded in January. The rise in the BCI is due to industry managers' more optimistic appraisal of the production trend in recent months and of their total order books. By contrast, their production expectations continued to decline, while their views of export order books and stocks of finished products remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
March
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-35.0 -42.0 -41.4 N/A

For March

The German and Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators beat expectations, and improved, though they remain below their long term averages. Recent fundamentals have shown the Germany economy improving, even as the Euro sets record highs, and the US slows down. The ECB is concerned with fighting inflation, and is therefore keeping rates at their current levels. If the Euro-zone economy can manage to ride out the worst of the credit crunch, the Euro will stay in a strong position as the Fed continues cutting rates. 

Business Climate Indicator
February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.72 0.75 0.78 N/A

For February
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

"The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area continued to decline in February. The indicator is still at a fairly high level, which suggests steady economic activity in the industry sector in the first months of this year, despite the deceleration in industrial production growth registered at the end of 2007. The decrease in the BCI is mainly due to a worsening of industry managers' production expectations for the months ahead. Managers' assessments of their total order books and export order books also declined slightly, while their views of the stocks of finished products and production trend observed in recent months remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
February
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-41.4 -43.0 -41.7 N/A

For February
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release

"Economic expectations for the euro zone improved in February. The indicator increased by 0.3 points and now stands at minus 41.4 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone decreased by 26.0 points to 21.8 points."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
January
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-41.7 -37.8 -35.7 N/A
For January.
Business Climate Indicator
January
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.92 0.90 1.04 N/A
For December.
ZEW Economic Sentiment
December
11th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-35.7 -34.0 -30.0 N/A
For December.
Business Climate Indicator
November
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.04 0.79 0.87 N/A
For November

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