Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Business Confidence

Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: Business Conditions Orders

Most Recent Release

January
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-6

-3

N/A

For January.
Official Release from Statistics Canada

"The balance of opinion concerning current levels of new orders increased 5 points to +2 in January. The number of manufacturers who stated that orders received were declining was down 4 points to 18% from the October survey. In contrast, those stating new orders were rising increased 1 point to 20% in January. With the exception of October, the new orders balance has been positive since the January 2007 survey."

Overall however, the business conditions survey showed a balance of opinion for January of -14, a drop of 14 points from the previous survey.

"Apprehension best describes the mood of manufacturers as they looked ahead to the first quarter of 2008. Manufacturers are expecting tougher times as the rapid run-up in the value of the Canadian dollar and record crude oil prices may be taking a toll on the sector."

Table of Past Data

	1/29	4/27	7/27	10/26	1/29

Actual	2	12	6.0	-3.0	2
Forecast	-1	2	4.0		-6
Previous	-13	3	11.0	6	-3
Revised From	N/A	N/A	12.0	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

October
26th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-3.0

N/A

For October.

July
27th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

6.0

4.0

11.0

12.0

In July, manufacturers stayed positive despite a stronger Canadian currency. In all, 12 of the 21 manufacturing industries posted a positive balance for production prospects in the third quarter of 2007, according to StatCan. However, many are feeling the pinch as they become less satisfied with new orders and unfilled orders. Employment and inventories had mainly positive assessment.

April
27th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

N/A

Better than expected sentiments are propeled by the continuing strong domestic demand as well as global growth despite the US slowdown. On an industry basis however, 5 of 11 of those reporting noted drops which petroleum products leading the way (-3 from +11 last period).

January
29th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-1

-13

N/A