For May
Provided by: National Australian Bank
Official Release: PDF
Impact: Low to Medium

Business Conditions: 7, pr. 7 (Apr), 7 (Mar), 11 (Feb), 13 (Jan)

Business confidence and conditions stabilized in May after falling in the last 6 months. Profits and sales have fallen faster than anticipated, though employment remains strong. Business may reassess new hires as they reassess their business outlook. 

From the Release:

• Business confidence and conditions stabilise in May, after recent large falls.
• Recent weakness in sales and profits starts to lower employment outcomes and especially expectations. Capacity utilisation falls and orders weaker.
• Survey implies domestic demand growth of around 3½% in mid Q2. But business sharply revising down near term expectations.
• Nab's Global forecasts still at 3.4% in 2008 and 3.1% in 2009 - US in mild recession, but staying slower for longer due to credit rationing and higher oil prices.
• Locally, Australian GDP is still expected at around 2¾% for both 2008 & 2009 - supported by personal tax cuts, a rebound in farm output & stronger commodity prices.
• RBA nervously on hold in rest of 2008. Near term inflation still high & rising in Survey, but downside risks to growth substantial. Cash rate cuts still expected from early 2009.

For April
Provided by: National Australian Bank
Impact: Low to Medium

Quarterly Business Survey, for 1st Quarter
Provided by: National Australia Bank
Official Release: Summary
Official Release: PDF 

Highlights from the Release:  

"Business confidence falls to lowest levels since 2001 while conditions also slow sharply - consistent with growth in domestic demand slowing to around 3½% in Q1;

Near and medium term expectations also revised markedly lower;

Interest sensitive sectors and finance bearing the brunt of the slowing;

Wage pressures unchanged but expectations rising and inflation momentum very high;

Global GDP forecasts unchanged at 3½% in 2008 - with the US in moderate recession but China still at very strong growth rates;

Australian GDP forecasts unchanged - at 2¾% in both 2008 & 2009 but downside risks rising. RBA nervous on inflation but on hold in 2008 - still to cut significantly in 2009."

For March
Provided by: National Australian Bank
Impact: Low to Medium

Business Conditions: 7, pr. 11 (Feb), 13 (Jan), 17 (Dec)

Business conditions deteriorated as demand is easing, and most sectors are reporting significant slowing. The major issue firms are facing is the tightening of credit conditions. The RBA's hike rate hike campaign is definitely over, and the rate cut cycle is expected to start late 2008, early 2009. Inflationary pressures are major issues, as retail prices are accelerating, and purchase costs have also continued to climb. Wages are growing "relatively steady," and unlike in New Zealand,  executives are planning to hire more in the second quarter. Both New Zealand and Australia have enjoyed export demand from emerging economies. However, the countries appear to following the trend of a global slowdown combined with higher price pressures. It is quite possible that the RBA will want to cut rates before the end of the year. 

For February
Provided by National Australia Bank

Business Confidence: 11, pr. 13 

For January
Provided by: National Australian Bank
Official Release

Business Conditions: 13, pr. 17

"Not unexpectedly confidence crumbles in January.
Conditions remain reasonable but ease significantly - and reinforce the view that the peak in demand passed in the latter part of 2007.
Growth forecasts unchanged.  Globally growth in 2008 forecast at 3¾% - US at 1¼% with Fed to cut to 2½% or lower.  US result little better than 2000 but fears of a significant and pronounced recession overdone.  China still very strong.
Australian GDP for 2008 at 3% and for 2009 - but latter boosted by farm.
RBA frets about worse inflation and stronger demand outcomes and has signalled another rate rise soon. We now expect March - barring further global disruption.
But we maintain the view RBA will be cutting in 2009."

• "Business confidence falls dramatically (by 9 points) in January on the back of global financial and equity market weakness. Confidence now at lowest level in the Monthly's history (-4 points) ex September 11;
• Business conditions fall 4 points to +13 - with all components of the separately seasonally adjusted index falling moderately. Thus, trading conditions fell 3 points to +26 points, profitability fell 6 points to +13 points and employment fell 3 points to 10 points;
• Overall, the Survey is consistent with domestic demand growing between 3½ - 4% in early 2008 - but strongly reinforces recent survey results pointing to the peak in demand having passed;"

For December
Provided by National Australia Bank

NAB Business Conditions (Dec): 17, previous 15 (Nov)

High borrowing costs, financial volatility in global markets, and the slowdown of a major exporting partner in the U.S. is eroding business sentiments in Australia. index reached its lowest reading since October 2005. 

For November.
Release from NAB-Monthly Business Survey

Business confidence eroded with interest sensitive sectors and now finance and business services the key drivers. The change in government may also have added to uncertainty.

Business Conditions index is also down 5 to 15, after reaching a record level last month. Trading conditions down 7 to 21, profitability down 8 to 14, while up 2 to 12.