Open a Live Account!

Open a Free Practice Account

Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.

Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.

www.cmsfx.com
Indicator Digest

Business Confidence
Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: ZEW Economic Sentiment

Most Recent Release

May
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
28.5 14.3 11.8 N/A

For May
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -93.2, pr. -93.0 (Apr), -90.7 (Mar), -91.0 (Feb),
-84.7 (Jan), -71.2 (Dec), -58.9 (Nov), -44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone increased in May by 16.7 points compared to the previous month. The respective indicator now stands at 28.5 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone remains almost unchanged on a very low level. The corresponding indicator dropped by 0.2 points to minus 93.2 points."

Table of Past Data

8/199/1610/1411/1112/91/202/173/174/215/19
Actual-55.7-40.9-62.7-54.0-46.1-30.8-8.7-6.511.828.5
Forecast-65.0-55.0-57.2-60.0-55.8-27.5-11.70.014.3
Previous-63.7-55.7-40.9-62.7-54.0-46.1-30.8-8.7-6.511.8
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Business Climate Indicator

Most Recent Release

June
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.97 -3.00 -3.11 N/A

For June
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased slightly in June. However, the level is still far below the previous historical lows of 1993. This suggests that year-on-year industrial production growth will still have been negative in May and will remain subdued in June.

The rise in the BCI reflects an overall easing, except for conditions related to order books. Managers' production expectations continued to improve in June, and their perception of the production trend observed in recent months increased significantly. Managers' opinion of stocks of finished goods also continued to improve. In contrast, both order books and export order books continued to worsen, reaching new record lows."

Table of Past Data

9/2910/3011/271/81/292/263/304/295/286/29
Actual-0.79-1.34-2.14-3.17-3.16-3.51-3.58-3.33-3.17-2.97
Forecast-0.5-0.91-1.5-2.8-3.50-3.20-3.48-3.53-3.10-3.00
Previous-0.28-0.82-1.34-2.14-3.09-3.03-3.40-3.58-3.26-3.11
Revised FromN/A-0.79N/AN/A-3.17-3.16N/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Business Climate Indicator
May
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.17 -3.10 -3.26 N/A

For May
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area again increased in May, albeit at a slower pace than in April. This is the first improvement sustained over two consecutive months since May 2008. The indicator nevertheless remained at a very low level, suggesting that year-on-year industrial production growth will have been negative in April and will remain distinctly subdued in May.

The rise in the BCI reflects an improving situation in the underlying components, except for those related to order books. Managers' production expectations and view of the production trend observed in recent months continued to pick up in May. Managers' assessment of stocks of finished goods also showed an improvement on last month's level, though order books and export order books slightly worsened."

Business Climate Indicator
April
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.33 -3.53 -3.58 N/A

For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased in April. This is the first improvement since May 2008. The indicator nevertheless remained at a very low level, pointing to another negative outcome for year-on-year industrial production growth in March, after the record fall registered in February. Given the current levels, it also suggests that annual industrial production growth will remain clearly subdued in April.

The rise in the BCI reflects an improving situation in most of its underlying components. Managers' production expectations picked up clearly in April, while the production trend observed in recent months improved only slightly. Their assessment of current overall order books and stocks of finished goods recovered marginally from last month's level, though export order books continued to worsen."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
April
21st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
11.8 0.0 -6.5 N/A

For April
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -93.0, pr. -90.7 (Mar), -91.0 (Feb), -84.7 (Jan),
-71.2 (Dec), -58.9 (Nov), -44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

Business Climate Indicator
March
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.58 -3.48 -3.40 N/A

For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell again in March, to its lowest level since January 1985. It points to another markedly negative outcome for year-on-year industrial production growth in February, after the record fall registered in January. Given the current levels, it also suggests that industrial production growth will remain clearly subdued in March.

The drop in the BCI reflects a worsening situation in most of its underlying components. Managers' assessment of current overall order books and export order books deteriorated even further from last month's level. Stocks of finished goods have again risen towards December's record highs, while the production trend observed in recent months improved only marginally from a very low level. Looking forward, managers remain very negative about their production expectations outlook."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
March
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.5 -11.7 -8.7 N/A

For March
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Previous Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: pr. -91.0 (Feb), -84.7 (Jan), -71.2 (Dec), -58.9 (Nov),
-44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

Business Climate Indicator
February
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.51 -3.20 -3.03 -3.16

For February
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell significantly in February to yet another low, reaching its lowest point since January 1985. It confirms the expectation that the outcome of the year-on-year industrial production growth for January will be markedly negative, following on from the sharp fall already recorded in December 2008. It also suggests that annual industrial production growth will remain clearly negative in February 2009.

The drop in the BCI reflects a general deterioration in most of its underlying components. Managers' assessment of the current overall order books and export order books is increasingly negative. Managers also reported a sharp fall in the production trend observed in recent months, while the stocks of finished goods stabilised – though at a very high level – and production expectations remained broadly stable."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
February
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.7 -27.5 -30.8 N/A

For February
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -91.0, pr. -84.7 (Jan), -71.2 (Dec), -58.9 (Nov),
-44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

From the Release: "Economic expectations for the euro zone increased in February by 22.1 points. The respective indicator now stands at minus 8.7 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone decreased by 6.3 points to minus 91.0 points."

Business Climate Indicator
January
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.16 -3.50 -3.09 -3.17

For January
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell again in January, though marginally so, and reached its lowest since January 1985. The latest BCI confirms the expectation that the outcome of the year-on-year industrial production growth for December will also be markedly negative, after the sharp fall recorded in November 2008. The indicator suggests that annual industrial production growth will be clearly negative in January 2009.

The drop in the BCI reflects a general deterioration in its underlying components; however, the downward development in the components was less dramatic than in the past three months. Managers report a deteriorating production trend and worsening order books. Looking ahead, they expect production to decline even further. On the positive side, the stocks of finished goods component improved somewhat in January."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
January
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-30.8 -46.1 N/A

For January
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -84.7, pr. -71.2 (Dec), -58.9 (Nov), -44.7 (Oct),
-10 (Sep)

Business Climate Indicator
January
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.17 -2.8 -2.14 N/A

For December
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell more markedly this month than last and reached its lowest level since January 1985. The continued steep decline of the indicator signals a deteriorating trend in year-on-year industrial production growth, which is likely to turn out clearly negative in the fourth quarter.

All five underlying components of the BCI deteriorated. Managers reported a sharp fall in the production trend observed in recent months while stocks of finished goods increased. Their assessment of the current overall order books and export order books is increasingly negative. Looking ahead, production expectations in the euro area worsened notably compared to last month and are now at their lowest level since 1985."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
December
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-46.1 -55.8 -54.0 N/A

For December
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -71.2, pr. -58.9 (Nov), -44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone increased in December. The indicator rose by 7.9 points and now stands at minus 46.1 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 12.3 points and now stands at minus 71.2 points."

Business Climate Indicator
November
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.14 -1.5 -1.34 N/A

For November
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell more markedly this month than last, and now stands close to values last observed in 1993. The continued steep decline of the indicator signals a deteriorating trend in year-on-year industrial production growth, which is likely to continue to be negative even in the fourth quarter.

All five underlying components of the BCI deteriorated. Managers reported a sharp fall in the production trend observed in recent months while stocks of finished goods increased. Their assessment of the current overall order book and export order book is increasingly negative. Looking ahead, production expectations in the euro area worsened notably compared to last month."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
November
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-54.0 -60.0 -62.7 N/A

For November
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Offficial Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -58.9, pr. -44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep)

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone increased in November. The indicator rose by 8.7 points and now stands at minus 54.0 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 14.2 points and now stands at minus 58.9 points."

Business Climate Indicator
October
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.34 -0.91 -0.82 -0.79

For October
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell to values last observed in 2001. The low level of the indicator suggests that industrial activity remains subdued. All five underlying components of the BCI declined. The decline was fairly sharp for managers' production expectations and assessment of total order books and export order books; while their view of stocks of finished products and production trend observed in recent months worsened less."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
October
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-62.7 -57.2 -40.9 N/A

For October
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -44.7, pr. -10 

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone deteriorated in October as well. The indicator declined by 21.8 points and now stands at minus 62.7 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 34.7 points and now stands at minus 44.7 points."

Business Climate Indicator
September
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.79 -0.5 -0.28 N/A

For September
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release: " The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased significantly to values last observed in 2003. The low level of the indicator suggests that industrial activity remains subdued.

Four out of five underlying components of the BCI declined. The decline was fairly sharp for managers' assessment of production trend observed in recent months, total order books and export order books; while their assessment of stocks of finished products worsened only slightly and production expectations remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
September
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-40.9 -55.0 -55.7 N/A

For September
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone improved in September as well. The indicator rose by 14.8 points and now stands at minus 40.9 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone increased by 12.2 points and now stands at minus 10.0 points."

ZEW Economic Sentiment
August
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-55.7 -65.0 -63.7 N/A

For August
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

See "GER ZEW Economic Sentiment" for more commentary. 

From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone improved in August as well. The indicator increased by 8.0 points and now stands at minus 55.7 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone decreased by 18.9 points and now stands at minus 22.2 points."