Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Business Confidence

Business Confidence measures the mood of domestic firms, usually using surveys that ask questions about their current conditions, and future expectations. By measuring businesses' optimism/pessimism economists get clues as to the future levels of sales, hiring and investment by these companies, and the overall economy.

Main Indicator: ZEW Economic Sentiment

Most Recent Release

April
15th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-44.8

-33.0

-35.0

N/A

For April
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Just like in Germany, the economic expectations of financial analysts in the Euro-zone worsened in April. The ZEW indicator decreased considerably by 9.8 points and now stands at -44.8 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 3.9 points and now stands at 15.5 points.

Next Release Date: May 20th 2008, 5:00 EST

Table of Past Data

	7/17	8/21	9/18	10/16	11/13	12/11	1/15	2/12	3/11	4/15

Actual	7.2	-6.1	-20.3	-19.0	-30	-35.7	-41.7	-41.4	-35.0	-44.8
Forecast	19.5	0.0	-14.0	-24.5	-20.0	-34.0	-37.8	-43.0	-42.0	-33.0
Previous	19.0	7.2	-6.1	-20.3	-19	-30.0	-35.7	-41.7	-41.4	-35.0
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Secondary Indicator: Business Climate Indicator

Most Recent Release

April
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.44

0.69

0.79

0.80

For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "After a slight rebound in March, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased again in April. The current level of the indicator still continues to suggest above historical average industrial production growth, but the decline points to a weakening of the monthly growth rates in the second quarter of 2008.

Nearly all the components of the BCI worsened, production expectations being the only exception, which remained unchanged. Industry managers' appraisals of the production trend in recent months and of their total order books deteriorated sharply. Their assessments concerning export order books and stocks of finished products declined more moderately."

Table of Past Data

	4/30	5/31	8/31	9/28	10/31	11/30	1/7	2/29	3/31	4/30

Actual	1.16		1.41	1.09	0.87	1.04	0.92	0.72	0.80	0.44
Forecast		1.61	1.30	1.30	1.03	0.79	0.90	0.75	0.70	0.69
Previous	1.54	1.61	1.35	1.41	1.08	0.87	1.04	0.78	0.72	0.79
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.09	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.80

Past Releases

Business Climate Indicator

March
31st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.80

0.70

0.72

N/A

For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

"After having decreased for three months in a row, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area rebounded in March. The relatively high level of the indicator points to sustained industrial production growth in the first quarter of this year, in line with the increase recorded in January. The rise in the BCI is due to industry managers' more optimistic appraisal of the production trend in recent months and of their total order books. By contrast, their production expectations continued to decline, while their views of export order books and stocks of finished products remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment

March
11th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-35.0

-42.0

-41.4

N/A

For March

The German and Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators beat expectations, and improved, though they remain below their long term averages. Recent fundamentals have shown the Germany economy improving, even as the Euro sets record highs, and the US slows down. The ECB is concerned with fighting inflation, and is therefore keeping rates at their current levels. If the Euro-zone economy can manage to ride out the worst of the credit crunch, the Euro will stay in a strong position as the Fed continues cutting rates.

Business Climate Indicator

February
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.72

0.75

0.78

N/A

For February
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

"The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area continued to decline in February. The indicator is still at a fairly high level, which suggests steady economic activity in the industry sector in the first months of this year, despite the deceleration in industrial production growth registered at the end of 2007. The decrease in the BCI is mainly due to a worsening of industry managers' production expectations for the months ahead. Managers' assessments of their total order books and export order books also declined slightly, while their views of the stocks of finished products and production trend observed in recent months remained unchanged."

ZEW Economic Sentiment

February
12th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-41.4

-43.0

-41.7

N/A

For February
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release

"Economic expectations for the euro zone improved in February. The indicator increased by 0.3 points and now stands at minus 41.4 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone decreased by 26.0 points to 21.8 points."

ZEW Economic Sentiment

January
15th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-41.7

-37.8

-35.7

N/A

For January.

Business Climate Indicator

January
7th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.92

0.90

1.04

N/A

For December.

ZEW Economic Sentiment

December
11th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-35.7

-34.0

-30.0

N/A

For December.

Business Climate Indicator

November
30th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.04

0.79

0.87

N/A

For November

ZEW Economic Sentiment

November
13th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-30

-20.0

-19

N/A

For November.

Business Climate Indicator

October
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.87

1.03

1.08

1.09

For October

ZEW Economic Sentiment

October
16th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-19.0

-24.5

-20.3

N/A

Business Climate Indicator

September
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.09

1.30

1.41

N/A

For September.

ZEW Economic Sentiment

September
18th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-20.3

-14.0

-6.1

N/A

Led by declines in Germany (-18.1 in September, see above commentary), the euro zone saw its ZEW sentiment fall to -20.3 from -6.1 in August. It is the 4th straight month of declines, as the index has fallen from 22.3 in May. The current economic situation in the euro zone index dropped 7.5 points to 65.6.

Business Climate Indicator

August
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.41

1.30

1.35

N/A

Businesses see current business conditions in the Euro Zone as resilient, even through all the turmoil in August. The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) actually increased slightly, when forecasts called for a further drop from the six month low set last month.

ZEW Economic Sentiment

August
21st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-6.1

0.0

7.2

N/A

ZEW Economic Sentiment

July
17th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

7.2

19.5

19.0

N/A

Business Climate Indicator

May
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.61

N/A

Business Climate Indicator

April
30th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.16

1.54

N/A

The report from the European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, "the slight increase in the BCI in April is due to improvements in managers' views on total order books, production trend observed in recent months and production expectations for the months ahead."