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Leading Indicators
Index of a combination of several indicators for that month.
Main Indicator: Leading Index
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.7% | N/A | |||
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For August
Provided by: Conference Board
Coincident Index: 0.2% The conference board leading index for the UK declined 0.6% in August. Consumer confidence has led the decline for three straight months, as the economy is diving into a recession. The leading index has been trending down since the middle of 2007, but the has accelerated since March this year. From the release: Three of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were stock prices, productivity for the whole economy*, and operating surplus of corporations*. The negative contributors — from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — were consumer confidence, volume of expected output, order book volume and yield spread. |
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Table of Past Data
| 5/14 | 8/13 | 9/11 | 10/10 | 12/10 | 1/9 | 2/6 | 3/11 | 9/10 | 10/8 | ||
| Actual | 0.60% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -0.6% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.80% | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -0.7% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -1.0% | N/A | |||
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Provided by: Conference Board
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.4% | N/A | |||
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For January
Provided by: The Conference Board |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.3% | N/A | |||
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For December
Provided by: The Conference Board |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.2% | N/A | |||
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For November. Official Release from Conference Board Coincident Index: 0.2%, pr. 0.1%. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators, which compiles several forward looking indicators to paint a picture of the next 3 to 6 months, dropped back into negative territory after October's positive reading. The decline is a result of a housing slump, weakening consumer confidence, and struggling exports. "The negative contributors — from the largest contributor to the smallest — were stock prices, the yield spread, volume of expected output, consumer confidence and order book volume." The Coincident Index, which measures indicators that point to past activity, improved, as employment, real household disposable income, retail sales saw improvements. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | |||
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For October UK Conference Board: Leading Index Leading Indicators: 4 of 7 improved, and the index stands at 129.4, rebounding after 3 months of declines. Coincident Indicators: 3 of 4 improved, and the index stands at 119.1. According to the Conference Board, the figures show that the economy will continue to grow in the near-term, but at a slower pace. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.2% | N/A | |||
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Drops in stock prices pulled the Conference Board's leading index down for a second straight month in August. The six-month rate has now been scaled down from a recent 2.0%-2.5%, to 1.2%. Annually, the rate is down from 4.5% to 2.4%. Four of the Seven indicators increased, but were offset mainly by declining stock prices. Coincident Inidcators Aug (+0.2%) July (+0.2%) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | |||
| The leading index has been on an upward path over the past year. Strengths are widespread in the leading indicators, as 4 of the 7 components gained in June. Productivity for the whole economy was the largest positive contributor while yield spread ans stock prices were the largest negative contributors. 4 of 4 coincident indicators increased as they component gained 0.2% in June, which is the same increase in both May and April. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.60% | 0.80% | N/A | |||
| 5 of the 8 items in the index increased. For year over year, the index grew 4.1%. | |||||