Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Leading Indicators

Index of a combination of several indicators for that month.

Main Indicator: Leading Index

Most Recent Release

June
27th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.01

1.00

1.08

1.09

For June
Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research
Official Release: PDF

The Swiss leading index fell to the lowest level in almost five years in June. The economy is starting to be afflicted by many of the symptoms faced by its larger neighbors. High inflation and rising cost of fuel is weakening consumer spending. Slowing growth in the Euro-zone and the global economy will affect exports and the manufacturing sectors. another impediment is a faltering financial sector outlook, as banks are being hurt by the housing crisis in the US. With inflation now crimping domestic demand, the Swiss downturn will continue.

From the Release: " The barometer lies at 1.01 points in June, meaning it has again eased relative to May. It is consequently sending a clear signal for a further slowdown in Swiss GDP growth over the next few months.

In June 2008 the KOF Economic Barometer continued its downwards trend,although this was less pronounced than over the past two months. In the interim the barometer value lies at 1.01 (revised May value: 1.08) and has undercut the long-standing average value of 1.16. This means gross domestic product growth - in comparison to the same quarter of the previous year - is set to slow still further."

Table of Past Data

	8/29	9/26	11/28	12/28	1/30	2/29	3/28	4/30	5/30	6/27

Actual	2.06	2.14	2.02	1.99	1.70	1.65	1.54	1.20	1.09	1.01
Forecast	2.15	2.00	1.98	1.98	1.95	1.60	1.60	1.46	1.09	1.00
Previous	2.09	2.12	2.02	2.02	1.84	1.75	1.66	1.40	1.21	1.08
Revised From	2.13	2.06	N/A	N/A	1.99	1.70	1.65	1.54	1.20	1.09

Past Releases

May
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.09

1.21

1.20

For May
Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "In the end of May 2008 the KOF economic barometer points at 1.09, which is somewhat lower
than the April reading of 1.20 (now revised to 1.21). Accordingly, it is signalling that Swiss GDP growth is continuing its slowdown, but will remain positive on a year-on-year basis.

Core GDP (GDP excluding construction and banking) is pointing downward but remains on a comparatively
high level. Construction is pointing sideways on a level close to zero, which implies that construction activity is stagnating. The Banking sector is in negative territory and continuing its downward path.

The Core GDP module accounts for more than 90% of Swiss GDP and hence dominates our barometer. It is based on three measurement modules, which presently all signalling a slowdown. Yet, while Domestic consumption is still positive, the Swiss Manufacturing and Export destinations EU measurement models are close to zero."

April
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.20

1.46

1.40

1.54

For April
Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "In April 2008 the KOF economic barometer points at 1.20, which is considerably lower than the March reading of 1.54 (now revised down to 1.40). Accordingly, it is signalling that Swiss GDP growth is continuing its slow-down, but will remain clearly positive on a year-on-year basis.

The KOF economic barometer is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules. Their contribution to the development of the barometer is as follows: The module Core GDP (GDP excluding construction and banking) is pointing downward but remains on a comparatively high level. The module Construction is pointing sideways as well, but on a level close to zero, which implies that construction activity is stagnating. The Banking module is continuing on the downward trend that started a few quarters ago and is now in negative territory."

March
28th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.54

1.60

1.66

1.65

For March
Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research

February
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.65

1.60

1.75

1.70

For February
Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research

January
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.70

1.95

1.84

1.99

For January
Press Release from Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research

"With a value of 1.70 in January 2008, the barometer has slipped for the first time following
a prolonged sideways movement.

The value of the barometer for January 2008 came in at 1.70. This represents a decline relative to the figure for December 2007. Prior to this, the barometer spent several months broadly at a level of 2.00. The barometer is signalling that the rate of gross domestic product growth for the previous year is set to remain positive. It is likely to be the case, however, that growth will slow in the 1st half of 2008."

December
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.99

1.98

2.02

N/A

For December. Release from Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research

Underlying economic conditions are still strong although growth has slightly slowed according to the KOF leading index.

November
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.02

1.98

2.02

N/A

For November.

September
26th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.14

2.00

2.12

2.06

August
29th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.06

2.15

2.09

2.13

There are brighter expectations in the Swiss industrial sector, but because the expectation in the EU industry is easing, the exports destined to the EU is easing as well. Swiss consumption also has begun to see "modest downwards trend" according to the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. On the bright side, acceleration in the GDP is expected to continue at least to the end of the year.