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Indicator Digest

Leading Indicators
Index of a combination of several indicators for that month.

Main Indicator: Leading Indicators

Most Recent Release

January
19th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.5% 1.1% 1.3% N/A

For November
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index rose 1.5% in December, its seventh straight increase and matching February 1983 for the largest monthly advance since September 1958. For a second straight month, growth was widespread as none of the 10 components fell. The largest gains continued to originate in household spending and the stock market.

The housing index rose 3.0%, its eight consecutive increase. Existing home sales led the initial upturn, which sent sales to a record high in December. The strength in sales was followed by a recovery in housing starts, which began slowly in July and continued to gather pace by year-end. Consumers also stepped up their purchases of durable goods. Services employment turned up in the last two months, after lagging the rebound earlier in the year, with gains for both personal and business services."

Table of Past Data

3/234/225/206/178/199/1710/2011/1912/151/19
Actual-1.1%-1.3%-1.1%-0.1%0.4%1.1%1.1%0.7%1.3%1.5%
Forecast-0.9%-0.7%-0.9%-0.6%0.2%0.5%0.9%0.8%0.7%1.1%
Previous-0.9%-1.4%-1.5%-0.9%-0.1%0.6%1.2%1.1%0.7%1.3%
Revised FromN/A-1.1%N/A-1.1%N/A0.4%1.1%N/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

December
15th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.3% 0.7% 0.7% N/A

For November
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Previous Release: News Release

November
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.8% 1.1% N/A

For October
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index increased 0.7% in October, its fourth straight advance. In October, 8 of the 10 components expanded, the same as in September. Housing remained the fastest-growing component. While the US leading indicator continued to recover, this has been slow to translate into higher demand for factories in Canada."

October
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1%

For September
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index rose by 1.1% in September, its fourth straight gain, while August was revised up from 1.1% to 1.2%. In September, 7 of the 10 components advanced, led again by the stock market and the housing index, while 2 components declined, the same as the month before."

September
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%

For August
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index rose by 1.1% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July. The increase was the largest since April 2002. Growth in the leading index usually only exceeds 1% early in the recovery from a downturn. In August, 8 of the 10 components contributed to the advance, up from 5 the month before, as the manufacturing sector joined the advance.

The housing index rose by 3.1% after sizeable gains in June and July. This is the strongest three months of growth since the spring of 1991. The upturn that began in existing home sales in March was reinforced by higher housing starts over the summer. Consumer spending for other durable goods also continued to expand, even before auto sales rose sharply in July.

The Toronto stock market continued to trend upwards for the fifth straight month. While the rally has been widespread, metals have led the gains over the summer."

 

August
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.2% -0.1% N/A

For July
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index rose 0.4% in July, after small declines in May and June were revised up to no change. The increase in July was the first advance since August 2008, just before the turmoil in global financial markets deteriorated significantly. Overall, 6 of 10 components expanded in July, the most since May 2008. Just four months earlier, the money supply was the only component that increased, when the overall index fell 1.4%, its fastest rate of decline in the current downturn."

June
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% -0.6% -0.9% -1.1%

For May
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The rate of decline of the leading indicator slowed markedly to 0.1% in May, the smallest of nine consecutive declines. The shift from a 0.9% drop in April to a 0.1% dip in May was the largest monthly change in the index in either direction since December 1965. The turnaround reflected a 2.6% increase in the unsmoothed index, equalling its largest monthly gain in 30 years."

May
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.9% -1.5% N/A
For April
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release
April
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.3% -0.7% -1.4% -1.1%

For March
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The composite leading index fell 1.3% in March following a 1.4% drop in February. The contraction in the manufacturing sector intensified as widespread cutbacks were implemented in the auto industry early in the new year. This was offset by a marked slowdown in the fall of the housing and stock markets.

All three manufacturing indicators fell in unison. The sharpest decline was for new orders, down a record 10.3% due to falling demand for autos. Falling shipments also lowered the ratio of shipments to inventories. Preliminary data for February on the number of auto assemblies point to a rebound of over one-quarter of output.

The financial indicators continued to improve. The money supply remained the only component to expand. The stock market continued its downward trend, dropping 2.3% in March, following five straight declines averaging nearly 8% a month."

 

March
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.9% -0.9% N/A

For February
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The February composite leading index fell 1.1% after a 0.9% decrease in January, with 9 of the 10 components declining. The housing and stock markets continued to post the largest declines, while losses in manufacturing steepened as the auto industry began to implement extensive shutdowns at the turn of the year.

The three manufacturing indicators declined in unison. New orders fell 4.8%, with the weakness in autos intensifying and spreading to other industries like iron and steel. Inventories fell for a seventh straight month, but not as fast as sales, reducing the ratio of shipments to stocks.

The auto sector also bore the brunt of declining household spending. Durable goods sales fell 1.4%, largely due to a sharp drop in auto sales late in 2008. The housing index declined 8.0%, the most of any component, as an upturn in home sales was outweighed by fewer housing starts in February.

The money supply was the one component to expand. The stimulus from monetary policy also was a major factor behind the slower rate of decline in the leading index for the United States."