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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.3% | N/A | |||
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For April
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Official Release: PDF |
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| 9/16 | 10/14 | 11/18 | 12/16 | 1/27 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/14 | 5/26 | 6/16 | ||
| Actual | 0.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -0.5% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | -1.0% | N/A | -1.0% | N/A | -0.2% | -0.3% | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | |||
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For April
Coincident Index: 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Mar), 0.4% (Feb), 0.6% (Jan),
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| 9/24 | 10/29 | 11/24 | 12/22 | 1/29 | 2/25 | 3/25 | 4/29 | 5/27 | 6/24 | ||
| Actual | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -1.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 0.0% | 0.4% | N/A | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.9% | N/A | N/A | 0.4% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.2% | N/A | |||
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For Mar
Coincident Index: 0.2%, pr. 0.4% (Feb), 0.6% (Jan), 0.7% (Dec),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | |||
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For February
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Official Release: PDF |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.6% | N/A | |||
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For February
Coincident Index: 0.4%, pr. 0.6% (Jan), 0.7% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.2% (Oct),
The leading index rose 0.2%, following five consecutive declines. The main positive contributors were a sharp increase in money supply and building approvals, which offset a decline in stock prices. The coincident economic index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.4%, helped by a continued increase in retail sales. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.2% | |||
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For February
From the Release: "“The level of the Leading Index fell by 0.8 points (–0.3%) in monthly components rose in February. Real money supply was up 1.2% and dwelling approvals rose 7.8%. The all ordinaries index fell 5.5% while US industrial production was down by 1.5%. Three of the four quarterly components – overtime worked, corporate profits and productivity – all detracted from the Leading Index in February." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -1.1% | -0.9% | |||
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For December
Coincident Index: pr. 0.7% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.2% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep) The Conference Board Australian leading economic indicators decreased for a fifth month in January, declining 0.6% to 111.2 points, following December’s downwardly revised 1.1% decrease, the Conference Board reported. The LEI indicates further deterioration in the Australian economy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.4% | N/A | |||
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For January
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.9% | -1.1% | -0.1% | |||
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For December
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.6% | -1.0% | |||
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For December
The leading index for Australia fell 0.4% in December, following an upwardly revised 0.6% drop in November. In annualized terms the index fell 1.2%, and marks the second straight month of decline. The main negative contributors were falling building approvals, stock prices, overtime worked, productivity, and corporate profits. The results point to a recession in Australia, which the central bank and government have already taken steps to alleviate. Interest rates have been coming down substantially, and will continue to do so, while the government has introduced a fiscal stimulus plan. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | |||
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For November
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.1% | N/A | |||
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For November
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.3% | N/A | |||
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For October
Coincident Index: 0.2%, pr. 0.0% (Sep)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% | |||
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For October
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |||
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For September
Coincident Index: 0.0% The Conference Board's index of leading indicators showed a 0.3% decline for the September period, the first decline in the index in seven months. It was up 0.5% in August. September was the month the global financial crisis took on new severity and when stocks losses piled, especially towards the end of the month. Negative contributors including weaker stock prices, building approvals, a lower yield spread and a decline in rural goods exports. Weaker building approvals attest to the weaker credit conditions seen in Australia, though the central bank has been aggressive cutting interest rates from 7.25% in August to 5.25% early this month. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.1% | N/A | |||
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For September
The leading index saw a very bleak -1.0% change on the month, as the Australian economy is facing difficult challenges in the face of an increasingly severe global slowdown that will affect demand for commodities. The domestic economy is also under pressure as stock prices plummeted and the housing market starts to soften. The poor economy has also put the breaks on job growth, which will cut into consumer spending.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |||
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For August
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.2% | N/A | |||
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For August
Australia's leading index fell in August, posting a 0.1% decline. The annual rate of the index slowed to 2.5% from 3.3% in July. The economy, which has been in economic expansion for 17 years, is feeling the strain of consumers and businesses limiting their spending as the outlook deteriorates. High interest rates, that have only recently began to come down, along with high inflation has cut into purchasing power. Unemployment is rising outside the export sector, and the housing market has stalled. With global growth slowing, demand for commodities, a key export for Australia will also pressure growth. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.5% | N/A | |||
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For July
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | |||
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For July
From the Release: "Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans commented, "This result is weak, with growth in the Index remaining below trend. However the story is not as disturbing as we reported last month. Last month we reported growth in the Index had slumped to 2%. This report contains a substantial upward revision in growth in June to 4%. Growth has slowed further from this higher base moving appreciably below trend in July. The reason for the substantial upward revision is the much stronger than expected growth in corporate profits and productivity as indicated in the June quarter national accounts. Whereas profits and productivity had together been contributing a steady 1–1.5 ppt's to growth in the Index this jumped to 3–3.5 ppt's in April–June following the information update from the national accounts. In the June quarter the national accounts reported a stunning 12% rise in the profits of (non financial) companies. That was understandably driven by a 40% increase in mining profits and a 5% increase in non-mining profits. In contrast profits in the small business (including the farm sector) contracted by 2%." |
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