For June
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "“The growth rate in the Coincident Index has now been below trend February 2008. The margin continues to widen as the Index signals weak current growth pointing to a very soft quarter for the economy in June. The level of the Coincident Index rose by 0.3 points (0.1%). Weak real retail trade (down by 1.2%) was countered by a 0.2% increase in employment.

The Reserve bank Board next meets on September 2. Markets are confidently predicting a rate cut and we concur. Communication from the Bank, beginning with Governor's Statement; the Statement on Monetary Policy and the August Board Minutes has made an increasingly strong case for a rate cut. Markets and commentators are predicting a 0.25% first move. Our view is that the first move in an easing cycle should be larger than the average once the case has been made to move. With rates well into the contractionary zone and global liquidity conditions deteriorating there is a strong case for a larger first cut of 0.5%. That seems a more effective strategy than current market expectations of two consecutive 0.25% moves.

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 2.0% in June, well below its long term trend of 3.9%. The annualised growth rate of the Coincident Index was 2.4%, also below its long term trend of 3.7%. Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans commented, "This is the slowest growth rate of the Index since July 2001 and the sharpest fall in the growth rate since 2000. This theme has been a consistent aspect of the Leading Index since growth in the Index fell below trend in February this year. That was the first time growth had been significantly below trend since October 2005."

For May
Provided by: The Conference Board
Official Release: Press Release

The Conference Board leading index dropped to -0.1% for May, the 4th decrease in the index in the last 5 months. The Australian economy is being choked by high interest rates, high inflation, and weakening housing and labor markets. Exports are the one bright spot. The Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated a moderation in growth, and believes that will be able to lower inflation. They are therefore going to be on the sidelines going forward even as inflation might increase in the short term.

For May
Provided by: the Westpac and Melbourne Institute
Media Release: (PDF)

The WMI leading index was flat for the month of May, and is significantly lower on the year at 2.1% in May, down from the 2.6% in April and below the long term trend of 3.9%. The annual coincident index was 3.0%, also below the long term trend of 3.8%. The current state of the economy as tracked by the nine components of this leading index is comparable to that of the 1995/1996 period where domestic spending growth slowed from 6.5% in 1994 to 2.8% and 3.2% in 1995 and 1996 respectively. The slowdown is in-line with what the RBA is expecting. Bill Evans, Westpac Chief Economist noted:

"In short, the growth profile of the Leading Index is consistent with our view that spending growth in the Australian economy will slow substantially through 2008 and 2009. Furthermore that slowdown is broadly consistent with the RBA's own forecasts and indicates that it will not need to further raise interest rates in this cycle."

For Apr
Provided by: The Conference Board
Official Release: Press Release

The Conference Board leading index rose 0.3% in April breaking a spell of 3 consecutive neagitve months and rebounding from a 0.4% drop in March. "Building approvals and the yield spread continued to make negative contributions to the index this month, but these were more than offset by large positive contributions from rural goods exports, share prices, and real money supply."

For April

The Wespac Banking Corp and Melbourne Institute leading index improved slightly on the back of better shares and building approvals. However, the annualized rate of 2.8% is below the 4.0% trend, and shows a slowing economy. 

For March

WMI Leading Index y/y: 3.3% pr. 3.6% (Feb)

The Australian Leading Index rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% on the year. The index, which tracks 8 gauges of economic activity, such as company profits and productivity, paints a picture of how the economy will do in the next 3 to 9 months. The fall in the annual rate of the leading index puts the indicator below its long term trend, and shows that the economy is straining under the weight of 12-year high interest rates of 7.25%. Inflation is high as well, as recent minutes showed that the central bank thought long and hard about raising rates one more time in their most recent meeting. 

The Aussie economy has been bolstered by strong demand for their commodity exports from emerging economies, especially China, for goods like coal and iron ore. However there are several forces like the high credit costs, uncertain situation in financial markets, and weakening domestic demand that is working against the economy.  

The AUD/JPY pair set a low near 99.61 after the release, but recovered strong as carry trade sentiments were buoyed by good performance in European stocks. T 

For February

WMI Leading Index y/y: 3.3%, pr. 4.1% 

Though the index was unchanged on a monthly basis, the annual growth of the index slowed to 3.3%. The Australian economy is cooling as interest rates at a 12-year high exert "a significant restraining influence" on households and businesses.  

For Jan
Provided by: The Conference Board
Official Release: Press Release

Pre-Release:
After humming along with 4 months of 0.5% or above growth (Aug, Sept, Oct and Nov) the leading index slowed to 0.2%. The Australian economy is facing higher interest rates perhaps slowing growth, and a global slowdown may see a reduction in the demand for Australia's commodity goods. The leading index lags other indicators and is looking at January, a time that saw a more direct downturn in the US economy.

Post Release:
The Conference Board leading index turned negative in January, posting a -0.3% decline. Its the first decline after 5 months of gains. "Negative contributions from share prices, the yield spread and building approvals more than offset positive contributions from money supply, gross operating surplus and rural goods exports."

For January
Provided by: The Westpac Melbourne Institute

WMI Leading Index y/y: pr. 4.7%,

Australia's leading index rose for the 5th straight month in December, as 4 of the 7 components showed increases. Rurual goods exports and real money supply led the way, while share prices, building approvals, and yield spread declines.

3 of the 4 components of the Coincident indicators scored improvement, including employment, household income, and retail trade. Industrial production declined in December.

Australia's economic indicators have made a rebound after easing slightly in the first half of 2007. The AUD has been one of the top performing currencies so far in 2008, driven up further by sugring commodity and oil prices.

For December
Provided by: The Westpac Melbourne Institute

WMI Leading Index y/y: 4.7%, pr. 6.1% 

For November.
Press Release from the Conference Board

"The leading index increased again in November, the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the index. Money supply and building approvals were the largest positive contributors to the leading index while share prices was the largest negative contributor; the yield spread also contributed negatively to the leading index in November. The six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up to 2.9 percent (a 5.8 percent annual rate) from May to November, above the average growth rate of about 0.9 percent that prevailed in the third quarter. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have only been slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months."