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Main Indicator: Leading Indicators
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.6% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For October
Coincident Index: 0.2%, pr. -0.5% (Sep), -0.1%, (Aug), 0.1% (Jul)
The Conference Board leading index decreased 0.8% for the month of October as stock prices, building permits, consumer expectations and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index. Positive contributions came from real money supply and the interest rate spread. With growth already negative in the 3rd quarter, GDP growth in the 4th quarter is shaping up to be even worse, putting the US in recession that may be prolonged and severe. Jobless claims rose to their highest since 1992, stocks took another downturn this week, and consumer prices are falling as economic activity continues to deteriorate. |
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Table of Past Data
| 2/21 | 3/20 | 4/17 | 5/19 | 6/19 | 7/21 | 8/21 | 9/18 | 10/20 | 11/20 | ||
| Actual | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.5% | 0.3% | -0.8% | |
| Forecast | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | |
| Previous | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.9% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | -0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1% | N/A | N/A | -0.5% | N/A | |
Past Releases
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.9% | -0.5% | ||
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For September
Lagging Index: -0.2%, pr. 0.4% (Aug), 0.4% (Jul), pr. -0.3% (Jun) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.7% | N/A | ||
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For August
Coincident Index: pr. 0.1% (Jul), 0.1%
(Jun)
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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For July
Coincident Index: 0.1%, pr. 0.1%
The Conference Board's leading indicators suggest that the economy is not making a recovery yet. The housing market showed weak building permits and is looking for relief from a government stimulus package. The stock market slid as surging oil prices gave investors the jitters. Another big sign of a stumbling economy was the elevated jobless claims. Initial claims came in higher than expected for 4 straight weeks before today's data. It has been above 400K the past 5 weeks. Increasing continuing claims also signal an economy where the unemployed are having difficulty finding another job. The stock market in August has stabilized along with oil prices, and the housing market showed some glimmer of recovery. Look for August's leading indicators to make an improvement. From the release: The leading index declined sharply in July, the second decrease in the index in the past three months. Building permits, stock prices, and weekly initial claims (inverted) made very large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting positive contributions from the interest rate spread and consumer expectations. The six-month change in the index stands at -0.9 percent (about a -1.8 percent annual rate), up from the 3.4 percent annual rate of decline at the end of the first quarter of 2008. However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators continue to be very widespread. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% | ||
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For June
Coincident Index: 0.1%
The Conference Board leading index measured -0.1% meaning the index sees the economy slowing in July. The pressures of worrisome conditions in financial markets, the continuing recession in the housing market, high gasoline and food prices, pessimistic consumers, and a weak dollar are all working against growth. It remains to be seen if the second half of 2008 shows any relief. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For May
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For April
The leading index showed a 0.1% gain, matching March's value. Prior to March, the index has been negative for 5 months. The categories that boosted the index were stock prices, interest rate spreads and housing permits. Negative contributors were average weekly hours and consumer expectations. With the index staying positive, it should be a good indication for the US economy as it flirts with recessionary conditions. Though the economic outlook still remains weak, the data suggests that the economy may not weaken further. The coincident index, which focuses more on current economic activity remained unchanged in April, remaining at 106.9 (2004=100). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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For March
Provided by: Conference Board The Conference Board Leading Index ended its 5-month streak of declines. The declines have been widespread. The gains in March came from Money supply, index of supplier deliveries, and the interest rate spread. However declines continued in jobless claims, building permits, and stock prices. In April we have so far seen unemployment surge, and building permits reach a 16-year low pace. Hence, the rebound in limited components of the index for March should not be a sign of any recovery or bottoming. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% | ||
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For February
Provided by: Conference Board The composite index of leading indicators fell 0.3% in February for the fifth straight month of decline. Unemployment gains, building permits, and consumer expectations became more of a drag according to the Conference Board. The market is now used to seeing such poor data from the US economy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | ||
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For January
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