Final for March
Provided by: Reuters
February's Release: Press Release - PDF

From the Release:

"Consumers Think Economy is Now in Recession

ANN ARBOR. Consumer confidence slipped in March due to growing concerns about weakening prospects
for the economy as well as anticipated increases in unemployment and inflation during the year ahead. “A recession has occurred whenever the Sentiment Index has declined as much as it has fallen during the past year, including the recessions occurring from the mid 1950's to the early 2000's,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The latest survey found that consumers were nearly unanimous in the opinion that the economy had already slipped into recession. Consumers have adopted much more cautious spending plans, shifting more toward repaying debts and rebuilding their savings.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 69.5 in the March 2008 survey, just below the 70.8 in February, and significantly below the 88.4 recorded last March and the recent peak of 96.9 recorded in January of 2007. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 60.1 in the March 2008 survey, down from 62.4 in February, and well below the 78.7 recorded in March 2007 and the recent peak of 87.6 in January 2007. From the January 2007 peak, the Expectations Index has fallen 31%; the Expectations Index fell by 24% prior to the 1990 recession and by 30% prior to the 2001 recession."

Last month's Capsule comments (Feb 29th):

"Consumer sentiment plunged from 78.4 in January to an upwardly revised 70.8 in February. The situations that households are reporting reflect those during the worst of the 1991 recession.

"Four-in-ten households reported that their finances had worsened and just one-in-five expected their finances to improve during the year ahead. These financial setbacks were caused by higher inflation, weakened job growth, and falling home prices."

Final Version for February

Official Release from Reuters

Consumer sentiment plunged from 78.4 in January to an upwardly revised 70.8 in February. The situations that households are reporting reflect those during the worst of the 1991 recession.

"Four-in-ten households reported that their finances had worsened and just one-in-five expected their finances to improve during the year ahead. These financial setbacks were caused by higher inflation, weakened job growth, and falling home prices."

Outlooks about the tax rebate package are dominated by 63% of the respondents, feeling it would not have much impact on the economy. According to Reuters, the distribution of this and other responses during the survey is very close to those in the 2001 recession.

Bush's attempt to calm the public will not be supported by this ongoing trend of deteriorating indexes, and poor sentiments, and weakening economic data. The market should be paying close attention to the labor market and whether that can hold up the shaky economy.

For February
Provided by: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, declined to 75, a five-year low. The Expectations index declined to 57.9 from 69.3. The Present Situation index decreased to 100.6 from 114.3 in January. Worsening conditions for consumers, as a result of a loosening labor market, and less favorable business conditions are a poor indicator for the economy. As the Dollar had already declined considerably overnight, and during early NY trading leading up to the release, it's results did not have a big impact. 

"Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The Consumer Confidence Index continues losing ground and, with the exception of the Iraqi War in 2003, is now at its lowest level in nearly fifteen years (Nov. 1993, 71.9). The weakening in consumers' assessment of current conditions, fueled by a combination of less favorable business conditions and a sharp rise in the number of consumers saying jobs are hard to get, suggests that the pace of growth in early 2008 has slowed even further. Consumers' expectations have also deteriorated significantly and are now at a seventeen-year low (Jan. 1991, 55.3). With so few consumers expecting conditions to turnaround in the months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the risk of a recession continues to increase.""

Final Version for January
Release from Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

The Umich/Reuter's survey showed consumers cutting back on spending due to higher food, heating costs, combined with lower stock and housing prices. Richard Curtin, the Director of the Survey noted

"There was little comfort in the fact that consumer confidence increased slightly in the January survey since the largest proportion of consumers in nearly two decades reported financial distress, especially households with incomes below $75,000."

 Also, the word recession is worrying many about the economy this year. Half of all consumers expected the unemployment rate to rise. With these prospects in mind, attitudes toward big-ticket item purchases such as vehicles was the least favorable since the 1990-1991 recession.

For January
Provided by the Conference Board

Expectations Index: 69.6, pr. 75.8
Present Situation Index: 115.3, pr. 112.9

"Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The modest improvement in Consumer Confidence last month was short-lived. Consumers' appraisal of current business conditions is becoming more negative and their assessment of the job market, while slightly less negative than in December, is more negative than a year ago. Looking ahead, consumers are quite downbeat about the short-term future and a greater proportion expect business conditions and employment to deteriorate further in the months ahead. In addition, the percentage of consumers anticipating an improvement in their earnings has declined and could potentially impact spending decisions.""